The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

We’ve devoted a good portion of this offseason to analyzing the perceived values of players in the fantasy marketplace. Given that the majority of drafts will take place between now and Opening Day, we thought it might be a good idea to take one last look at the updated market values of players to see if the hype revolving around certain players has influenced their stocks.

Accordingly, let’s take a look at the players whose ADP has changed the most in the past month. Keep in mind we’re only including players who were in Mock Draft Central’s Top 200 as of mid-February in these lists.

Greatest Spikes in ADP

1. Julio Borbon
2. Ryan Ludwick
3. Erick Aybar
4. Vernon Wells
5. Rickie Weeks
6. Corey Hart
7. Ryan Doumit
8. Brett Anderson
9. Adrian Beltre
10. Chris Davis
11. Mike Napoli
12. Nolan Reimold
13. Denard Span
14. Cole Hamels
15. Scott Baker
16. Chris Iannetta
17. Gordon Beckham
18. Rajai Davis
19. Jorge Cantu
20. Ryan Dempster

Greatest Declines in ADP

1. Joe Nathan
2. Jermaine Dye
3. JP Howell
4. Garrett Jones
5. Randy Wolf
6. Ted Lilly
7. Juan Rivera
8. Brandon Webb
9. Jake Peavy
10. Michael Bourn
11. Bengie Molina
12. Adam Dunn
13. Kurt Suzuki
14. Brian Roberts
15. Alex Rios
16. Jose Reyes
17. Adam Lind
18. Neftali Feliz
19. Daisuke Matsuzaka
20. David Aardsma

So what to make of these lists? First of all, let’s analyze the greatest risers in ADP. We notice some breakout candidates who have received a fair amount of hype in Julio Borbon, Erick Aybar, Rickie Weeks, Chris Davis, and Nolan Reimold. While the upside remains high for all of these players, the price is no longer as cheap. Along those same lines, we find a couple of players who broke out last year but have been touted to take their games to the next level in Brett Anderson and Gordon Beckham. Anderson still looks like a solid option in Round 13, but there are better players available than Beckham in Round 7.

Unfortunately, we also observe the market corrections for once severely undervalued players like Mike Napoli, Denard Span, Scott Baker, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Dempster. Even so, all of these players still look reasonably priced despite the recent uptick in asking price. Lastly, we see a number of bounceback candidates: Ryan Ludwick, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Ryan Doumit, Adrian Beltre, Cole Hamels, Chris Iannetta, and Jorge Cantu. It’s difficult to determine exactly why this group of players has witnessed a spike in market values. While I’m not as bullish on some of these players, I could still see myself selecting Hamels in Round 8, Beltre in Round 15, or Doumit in Round 16.

Taking a look at the greatest fallers in ADP, we naturally find some players dealing with injuries like Joe Nathan, JP Howell, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Brian Roberts, and Jose Reyes. We also have one who has yet to find a job in Jermaine Dye. Randy Wolf and Neftali Feliz have fallen simply due to previously absurd Mock Draft Central pre-set rankings. Next, the fantasy community has begun to realize that the breakout seasons of Garrett Jones and David Aardsma last year will be difficult to repeat. Overall then, Lilly may end up as a bargain this year, but I’m on board with the rest of these reductions in price.

Beyond those names, it’s difficult to explain the reasoning behind the fall in stock among some of these other players, opening the door for possible buying opportunities. In particular, I’m not sure what the fantasy community has against Adam Lind (ADP 52) and Kurt Suzuki (142); both look like relative bargains to me.

The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

It’s time for the final installment in our series in which we’ve analyzed the pre-set rankings provided by popular fantasy baseball sites. This week let’s compare CBS’s rankings to those of Mock Draft Central.

Here are the greatest discrepancies between this pair of rankings:

10 Hitters Ranked Significantly Higher by CBS (by Value Difference)

1. Joe Mauer
2. Derek Jeter
3. Dustin Pedroia
4. Drew Stubbs
5. Alcides Escobar
6. Juan Pierre
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Mark DeRosa
9. Rickie Weeks
10. Ryan Braun

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The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Just as we did last time with Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, let’s compare ESPN’s rankings to those of Mock Draft Central. Once again, only players ranked in ESPN’s top 200 were considered for the lists containing the widest spreads. After all, at that stage in the draft it becomes increasingly challenging to predict which players will be taken next anyway. Another thing to keep in mind is that ESPN standard leagues only use one catcher.

Here then are the greatest discrepancies between this pair of rankings:

10 Hitters Ranked Significantly Higher by ESPN (by Value Difference)

1. Brett Gardner
2. Lastings Milledge
3. Carl Crawford
4. Derek Jeter
5. Brendan Ryan
6. Juan Pierre
7. Delmon Young
8. Ichiro Suzuki
9. Franklin Gutierrez
10. Hideki Matsui

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Questions can be sent to editor AT fantasyballjunkie.com

By Eriq

Reader M.R. writes: “Just finished reading your impressive post on finding advantages using Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings and I’m trying to build a spreadsheet that compares ADP/MDP versus Yahoo towards revising my rankings. I have a couple of questions.”

• Is there value in ADP (average) vs MDP (median)?

Statisticians debate the merits of “average” versus “median.” They both have their advantages, and there probably isn’t a huge difference. We like median slightly better because it blunts the impact of outliers. The guy who drafts Rickie Weeks #1 overall as a joke won’t be included. It doesn’t make that much of a difference, however.

• Is there value in building composite of all three sources or is MDC sufficient?

Yes, there’s value there. Obviously, pre-rankings tend to influence how people draft. So what you see on one site might not be reflective of a draft held on another site. Mock Draft Central will give a quick-and-dirty look at drafts, but the more sources included, the more accurate one can measure expectations.

• Do you use the O-Rank from Yahoo’s player list or the actual default rankings in the pre-draft section?

It’s likely the same, although Yahoo may make some adjustments based on draft trends.

• Once you have the lower of Yahoo/ADP formulas, would your recommend adjusting to is as your pre-rank in Yahoo?

Negotiating a middle ground is probably the best course. It’s helpful to have a certain expectation of what others are doing because you don’t want to draft a guy in the 5th round if it’s highly likely others won’t begin considering that guy until the 9th round. On the other hand, you don’t want to get too cute. One thing people tend to miss is the variability of a player’s draft position. In sum, you want to be able to have your own rankings, but also have an eye on the community rankings for optimum draft performance.

By Eriq

We’ve long held that fantasy sleepers obey the same laws that particles do in quantum physics: namely, that by the very act of identifying a “sleeper,” the observer affects the observed reality. After all, how can a player be a sleeper if nobody is sleeping?

This year’s best candidate for non-sleeper sleeper is Brett Anderson, who is among our list of the five most controversial pitchers in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts. How can we tell? Well, by the very fact that according to the data we see, Anderson’s draft position varies most from one draft to the next. This means that in some drafts, he’s being drafted far below his average draft position. But it also means that in others, he’s being drafted far above his draft position.

As we noted when covering the most controversial batters in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, most players become pegged to certain draft positions, and as fantasy enthusiasts conduct more and more drafts, the conventional wisdom about a player’s value tends to solidify. On the other hand, there are those who remain wildly unpredictable in terms of where they will be available in drafts. These are the five pitchers whose volatility quotient is highest at the moment:

What contributes to volatility?

CHONE Projections on five controversial pitchers compared to a "mediocre" pitcher

Being a young pitcher certainly is a big factor. Brett Anderson and J.A. Happ are both entering their sophomore seasons and no doubt, expectations on performance vary wildly. Neither starter has been in the league long enough to amass good name recognition. Whether Anderson is drafted high or low could be a measure of your league’s general knowledge about players, although for the record, CHONE projections on Anderson aren’t kind. (See the graph to the right.)

Another factor is an injury track record. Nobody demonstrates that better in recent years than Rich Harden, a true stud when healthy, but somebody who can’t be counted upon for more than 150 innings in the season. For this reason, Harden’s draft stock has always been dependent on a league’s risk threshold. Also in the injury camp is Frank Francisco, someone who has missed time here and there, perhaps obscuring tremendous past performance and projection numbers.

Relievers and players moving to weak team environments also contribute to high volatility. Harden is moving to a hitter’s paradise in Texas. Matt Capps must overcome a disastrous season to be the closer for the woeful Washington Nationals. We’re sure that Capps is near the bottom of the list of closers being taken in drafts. Where that bottom resides depends entirely upon each individual league’s appetite towards relievers.

Can you figure out where a player is likely to be drafted without looking at ADP?

By Eriq

We recently proposed a new metric called xDP, or expected draft position, based on factors like recent production, growth, upside, risk, and scarcity.

Paul Singman at The Hardball Times has done yeoman’s work on the topic by measuring how recent production correlates with draft position. Not surprisingly, he finds that home runs and stolen bases are most important when it comes to a player’s draft position. Singman also proposes a formula to estimate a player’s draft position based on prior year’s stats — a nice leap in our understanding of the dynamics of drafts. We still would like to incorporate growth, upside, risk, and scarcity into the equation, but this is a very interesting start.

The article also notes that runs are the category given short shrift in a competitor’s drafting inclinations, which is interesting, because as we’ve noted in the past, runs have the highest single category correlation to a fantasy team’s hitting success. We agree this represents a great potential inefficiency in the market.

Six batters who are unbelievably hard to peg. Sleepers or busts?

By Eriq

Average draft position data tells us how fantasy baseball competitors are valuing players heading into the 2010 season. (Player X is going in Round Y in the average draft.)

Every day, as people participate in more mock drafts and more real drafts, a near-consensus starts to form. (Player X is going in Round Y in most drafts.)

Not only do fantasy competitors repeat the choices of a million other folks, but by referring to ADP cheat sheets, these competitors engage in a reinforcing feedback loop. (I know that Player X is going in Round Y, and I know that you know it too, so if I want Player X, I better take him in Round Y.)

Nevertheless, some players remain stubbornly hard to peg in terms of draft expectation. Last year, the high-volatile guys were Pablo Sandoval, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Alexei Ramirez, and James Loney — and with the exception of Loney, all turned into pretty good sleepers and busts for 2009 fantasy baseball.

Who are the very volatile guys right now? We’ve filtered batters under the age of 30 for the highest volatility and we get the following ranking of six controversial batters in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.

Let’s run down these players:

• James Loney repeats from last year as one of the most controversial draftees in fantasy baseball. The reason seems obvious — disagreement on whether he’ll improve his power numbers. If Loney cracks 20-25 HRs, he’ll be a tremendous value. After all, he’s a great contact hitter who can be counted upon for a nice average and good run production. However, if Loney repeats his drab power from yesteryear (just 13 HRs), he won’t offer much value over Lyle Overbay, who only gets drafted in very deep leagues.
• Yunel Escobar has been playing a little yo-yo with the hearts of fantasy baseball enthusiasts. In his rookie 2007 season, he posted a .326 average and showed the potential for some future power. The following year was disappointing: a .288 average with just 10 HRs. Last year, he increased the total to 14 with a .299 AVG. Heading into this season, shortstop is a thin position, and his draft stock probably depends on a lot of draft context.
• Chris Coghlan is controversial probably because people are trying to figure out whether last year’s rookie campaign was real. He was no doubt one of last year’s most valuable pickups, posting a .321 average and teasing double digits in both HRs and steals. His value was made more apparent last season as a 2B, a position he will no longer be eligible to be played at in most leagues. Anyone who believes Coghlan is a potential batting champion or suspects that Dan Uggla might be traded probably has reason to reach for him in drafts. Anybody who looks deeper at Coghlan and notes a lucky hit rate in ‘09 and overall mediocrity chooses to wait and wait and wait…
• Miguel Montero shares some similarities with Yunel Escobar, we think. Catcher is a thin position, and drafting one becomes dependent on the dynamics of a specific draft. Last year, Montero had a breakout year, but doubts remain about his defensive prowess to stay in the lineup on a regular basis. His draft position comes down to the confidence factor.
• Elvis Andrus performed better as a rookie last year than many people suspected. The Rangers shortstop was an elite prospect at a young age and many hope he can continue to grow. Some players move around in drafts as fantasy competitors spot a similar talent in the midst going for much less. This will be the subject of an upcoming FBJ analogy. Stay tuned.
• Alex Rios is still only 29 years old. He may have been one of last year’s biggest fantasy heartbreaks, but he’s still projected by CHONE for nearly a 20-20 season.  Apparently, some believe they are getting Rios at an enormous discount over previous drafting heights whereas others have moved Rios into the “never again” column. Hype is a hard thing to kill, and it’s not surprising to see Rios as one of this year’s head-scratchers.

We’ve taken these six players and mapped their CHONE projections onto a spider graph. Take a look at how their production stacks up against the average player in a 12-team league:

We’ll look at pitchers later this week.

Continue Reading »

Everybody wants a 2B near the 4th round. Lead the charge or wait?

By Eriq

Last week, we took a look at some of the players being drafted in the early rounds (#26 through 50) with an eye towards draft volatility.

Time to take a peak at which players may offer nice value for their draft slot.

First up is the batters. We’ve filtered CHONE projections through our player rater and adjusted them to a 10-point scale. Here we go:

A few notes:

• In these early rounds of drafts, there seems to be a run on 2B including Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts, Robinson Cano, Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Ben Zobrist. Those going into fantasy baseball drafts in 2010 should be prepared for this run. Don’t panic. According to our calculations, Phillips offers the best value and is going forth of sixth of the bunch. Pedroia is typically selected after Phillips and offers almost as much value.
• Other players who score quite well here are Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Zimmerman, and Brian McCann. Remember, for a catcher, to be of nearly equal value to players surrounding, is quite a feat.
• On the negative side, we’re not liking how Kevin Youkilis, Jayson Werth, and Adam Lind stack up. Rounds three through five may be the proper time to avoid power hitters at 1B and in the OF in favor of players with a greater positional edge.

Now onto pitchers. Last time, when we focused on the top 25 players in 2010 fantasy baseball, we skipped over Tim Lincecum and Zach Greinke. We’ll bring them into view here, showing how they stack up with other pitchers going in the top 50. Here we go:

A few notes:

• Yes, Roy Halladay is the top projected pitcher for 2010, thanks to his move to the national league. He’s currently being selected in the third round and projects as similar value to Lincecum, going in the first.
• We can’t say that Zach Greinke looks good as a 2nd rounder, when pitchers like CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, and Dan Haren stack up just as well or better. On the other hand, Greinke’s breakout season last year only gets so much credit in the CHONE system.
• Johan Santana is going to be selected high, it seems, based on name recognition, but the system is down on him this season. How down? With a projected line of 11 wins, 165 strikeouts, a 3.89 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP, Johan Santana barely edges Scott Baker’s projected line of 12 wins, 142 strikeouts, a 3.93 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP.

What’s the difference between Aaron Hill and Brian Roberts? We’ll show you…

By Eriq

Last week, we took a look at the draft volatility of the top 25 players in 2010 fantasy baseball.

Let’s look at the next 25 players going in most drafts, from Pick #26 (Ellsbury) to Pick #27 (Halladay) to Pick #30 (Sabathia) to Pick #31 (Gonzalez) and onward:

As we see above, we’re beginning to note some players in the yellow zone of volatility from one draft site to the next. Among the Top 25 players, there were none, but here we’ve got a handful, including Ryan Zimmerman, Joey Votto, Aaron Hill, Ben Zobrist, and Dan Haren,

What do the scores mean?

For the players we just named with moderate amount of volatility (measured by standard deviation from MDP), there’s a reasonable likelihood that they may be selected a round before or may be selected a round after their average draft position. How can both be possible?

Let’s take an example of a guy low in volatility, Brian Roberts, and a guy high in volatility, Aaron Hill. Both play the same position and are roughly going very close to each other in drafts (40 and 38, respectively). Using the same formula we mapped out previously, we can chart their percentage probability of appearance at various draft spots. Here it is:

Brian Roberts is being taken very close to his median draft position from one draft site to the next. This means it’s almost guaranteed you can get the Orioles 2B before his average draft position as well as almost guaranteed he’ll be gone soon after his average draft position. (We’ll also note that because we’re very early in the mock draft season and there aren’t a lot of data points, Roberts’ score is ridiculously low and will probably climb at least a little bit.)

Meanwhile, Aaron Hill is a pretty volatile player in drafts, perhaps not surprising because he is coming off a breakout year and fantasy competitors are still trying to figure out what’s his value and where to draft him. So he’s being taken about at the #38 spot, but if you’re in a draft, there’s still about a 27% shot he’ll be available 10 picks after that. Interestingly, there’s only a 73% chance he’ll be available 10 picks before the #38 slot. Meaning, he could go anywhere from the third round to the fifth round and if you’re want Hill, you’re going to be on edge early in drafts. (Again, see our post titled, “How The Fear Factor Influences Drafting“)

Soon enough, we’ll take these players and try to make some evaluation on which players are good values for their draft position.