We’re going position-by-position from now through the All Star Break looking at the surprises and busts and foreshadowing the rest of the season.

Brett Gardner: A surprising fixture near the top of OF standings this season

Today let’s tackle OUTFIELDERS

Best value for investment: Josh Hamilton, Alex Rios, Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Gonzalez, Brett Gardner, Chris B. Young, Corey Hart, Angel Pagan, Colby Rasmus, Magglio Ordonez, Brennan Boesch

Living up to value: Carl Crawford, Torii Hunter, Matt Holliday, Adam Dunn, Ichiro Suzuki, Andrew McCutchen, Shane Victorino, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Swisher, Vernon Wells, Delmon Young, David DeJesus, JD Drew, Jason Heyward, Josh Willingham

Falling just short: Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Bobby Abreu, Rajai Davis, Juan Pierre, Hunter Pence, Denard Span, Michael Bourn, Carlos Quentin, Alfonso Soriano, Johnny Damon

Falling well short: Jayson Werth, Juston Upton, B.J. Upton, Adam Jones, Nelson Cruz, Jason Bay, Nick Markakis, Jay Bruce, Michael Cuddyer, Manny Ramirez, Jason Kubel, Carlos Lee, Raul Ibanez,  Curtis Granderson, Brad Hawpe, Adam Lind, Grady Sizemore, Nate McLouth, Jacoby Ellsbury

Outfielders are hard to analyze because there are so many of them and different leagues have different allowances towards outfielders. 3 or 5? LF/CF/RF or generic? And so on…

What’s the year been like for outfielders? Let’s take a look at some generic marks. The tenth best OF this year (Kemp) is ranked 19th among all batters at any position. Last year, the tenth best OF was ranked 23rd. The twenty-fifth best OF (Swisher) this year is ranked 44th among all batters at any position. Last year, the ranking was 56th. The fiftieth best OF this year (Adam Jones) is ranked 88th among all batters at any position. Last year, the ranking was 110th.

Long story short, outfielders as a whole are clearly having a better season compared to their infield peers than last year.

Of course, that’s no consolation for anybody who drafted Juston Upton, Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Grady Sizemore, or Jacoby Ellsbury, among others. These guys are disappointing through injury, lackluster player, or both.

The most fruitful players in outfield this year so far are those on the comeback trail. Alex Rios, Vlad Guererro, Josh Hamilton, Chris B. Young, and Magglio Ordonez all had terrible seasons in 2009. This year obviously has been quite different.

A number of the speed guys, like Bourn, Pierre, Davis, and Span are doing good things in the SB category but coming up short elsewhere. The one speed guy who is giving more well-rounded run-and-average production is Brett Gardner, currently ranked sixth among outfielders and 14th among players at all positions.

Last year, Jason Bay, Jayson Werth, and Raul Ibanez were leaders in power among the OF pack. This year, we have Corey Hart and Vernon Wells among the unlikely power champs.

Perhaps more than any position, we’d give some credence to some of the 1st half trends continuing. Not uniformly, of course. Hart and Rasmus could regress in the second half. Meanwhile, Carlos Quentin is just getting hot and there could be some hot streaks in the bats of some of the fallen players. On the prospect front, some big names ahead including Dominic Brown of Philadelphia and Desmond Jennings of Tampa, both of whom will be super-hot pickups upon arrival to the big-league level.

We’re going position-by-position from now through the All Star Break looking at the surprises and busts and foreshadowing the rest of the season.

Let’s look at SECOND BASEMEN

Best value for investment: Robinson Cano, Martin Prado, Rickie Weeks, Kelly Johnson

Living up to draft-day value: Brandon Phillips,  Ben Zobrist, Dan Uggla, Howie Kendrick, Casey McGahee

Just short: Dustin Pedroia, Sean Rodriguez

Well short: Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Aaron Hill, Jose Lopez

Overall, despite some injuries at the top of the pecking order that have hampered the value of Utley, Pedroia, and Kinsler, it’s been a strong year at the 2B position.

Robinson Cano leads the way, not only as a 2B, but also as a Top 10 fantasy player at any position. Martin Prado was seen as a sleeper by many heading into the season, and he hasn’t disappointed — a top 25 player on the strength of a strong batting average and a little of everything. Brandon Phillips has been ol’ reliable.

A couple of other sleepers have lived up to hype too. Kelly Johnson’s move to Arizona has rejuvenated his career and he’s putting up nice numbers in both the power (14) and speed (8) categories. Rickie Weeks has so far, knock on wood, stayed healthy and he’s now up to 15 HR.

Aaron Hill has surely been one of the biggest disappointments in baseball this year. He was a contender to lead the position in HRs at the start of the season, but he’s only got 12 and his average sits below the Mendoza Line.

Remarkably, 13 players eligible at 2B are on pace for 20 HRs. Last year, only 10 finished there.

On the other hand, the position has been a little short on speed. Last year, 10 players finished at or above 20 steals. Currently, only four players are on pace. Most surprising is Ben Zobrist, who has disappointed in the power category but has already surpassed last year’s season total of 17 steals with 19 at the All Star Break.

Pedroia is expected back a short while after the All Star Break. Utley will probably be out until September.

One big impact prospect on the call-up horizon is Milwaukee’s Brett Lawrie, although that will likely only happen if Weeks is traded. Another guy to keep tabs on is Colorado’s Eric Young Jr., who is currently out with injury but could impact fantasy leagues with his speed.

We’re going position-by-position from now until the All Star Break looking at the surprises and busts and foreshadowing the rest of the season.

Today, let’s tackle CATCHERS

Living up to draft-day value: Mike Napoli, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki, Ryan Doumit, Carlos Santana, Buster Posey

Best production for draft investment: Miguel Olivo, John Buck

Falling short: Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, Miguel Montero, Yadier Molina

This has been an interesting year for catchers in fantasy baseball leagues.

On one hand, only one catcher, Miguel Olivo, is a top 100 fantasy player this season based on stats accrued to date. And only barely.

Last year, Joe Mauer was a Top 10 player and both Victor Martinez and Brian McCann ended up in the top 100. This year, the Big Three are disappointing, not to mention injuries to Miguel Montero and Jorge Posada and a very sub-par campaign by Matt Wieters.

Production at catcher hasn’t been as top-heavy as in past years but there’s been a bit more depth. That’s largely thanks to the call-ups of Posey and Santana, who have been offering star production and might have cracked the top 100 if they had been given the opportunity to be at the big-league level from the get-go.

Additionally, seven catchers have 10 HRs at the All Star Break, including hardly drafted players John Buck, Rod Barajas, and Chris Snyder.

Catchers unexpectedly contributing positively to batting average include Ivan Rodriguez, Yorvit Torreabla, Ryan Hanigan, and Ronny Paulino.

So far, this seems to have been a year where paid to wait for catchers in late rounds of fantasy drafts.

Going forward, a good case can be made that the best catchers are the rookies. We’d still take the long track record of Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, but we have to acknowledge that the gap between the haves and have-nots has diminished at the catching position.

We’re going position-by-position from now until the All Star Break looking at the surprises and busts and foreshadowing the rest of the season.

David Wright has recovered his power stroke

Today, let’s tackle THIRD BASEMEN.

Performing up to draft-day value: Evan Longoria, Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, Jorge Cantu, Kevin Kouzmanoff

Surpassing draft-day value a bit: David Wright, Michael Young, Casey McGahee, Troy Glaus, Chase Headley

Best production for draft investment: Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, Jose Bautista

Coming up short of draft investment: Alex Rodriguez, Mark Reynolds, Chone Figgins, Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, Chipper Jones, Alex Gordon

This has been a mediocre year at the third base position. As you can see above, among the 3B drafted in the first ten rounds, five have paid off so far including Wright, Longoria, Youkilis, Zimmerman, and Young. Meanwhile, five have faltered including A-Rod, Reynolds, Figgins, Aramis, and Sandoval. Basically, those drafting a top third-baseman at the start of the season had, in hindsight, a 50/50 proposition on return-of-value at the midway point.

While Beltre and Rolen are having great comeback years and Bautista has come out of nowhere, a number of the third-basemen in the middle-to-late rounds have disappointed. Chipper offers meager production in the late stages of his career, and Gordon is in the minors. Some of the late-round picks (i.e. McGahee) are doing fine but are hardly turning a tremendous amount of profit.

In short, preseason perceptions about scarcity at 3B were on target. The position hasn’t been quite as terrible as SS, but we’re guessing that many people expected more.

On the plus side, David Wright has gotten stronger and stronger as the season has gone on and is now hitting above .315 with 14 HR and 15 SB. Longoria was phenomenal in the first couple months, before fading gently, but he’s still on pace for nearly a 25-25 season. Beltre is a batting average champion contender and Youk gets on base at a phenomenal rate. Despite slowing down some, Bautista is still leading the majors with 22 HR.

On the negative side, A-Rod’s speed has disappeared and is only hitting .272. Mark Reynolds isn’t showing much speed either and is hitting just .218. Neither Aramis nor Sandoval have hit double digits in HRs yet.

A-Rod is the 8th ranked 3B on our charts at the moment, but less valuable than Brennan Boesch for the season, which should say something.

Overall, the top 15 third-basemen have averaged 13 HR, 51 RBIs, 47 R, 5 SB, and a .277 average. This aggregate group, however, includes players who probably weren’t on fantasy rosters for some of their best production. Players like Bautista and Rolen. The aggregate group also excludes players who might still be sucking airspace on rosters. Players like Aramis and Sandoval.

Going forward, things might get a little worse. The five top 3B who have posted great numbers so far are probably good bets to continue their strong campaigns. But we wouldn’t be sure about Rolen, Beltre, or Bautista, and we’re not tremendously confident that any of the disappointing players including A-Rod, Reynolds, Figgins, Aramis, or Sandoval will catch up with their lofty investments. Certainly, there’s a reasonable chance, but it’s hardly a sure-thing. On the prospect front, Brett Wallace will certainly be a hot name when he’s called up by the Blue Jays — he should still have 3B-eligibility in most leagues — and there’s a small chance that Mike Moustakas will taste the majors for the Kansas City Royals at the end of the season.

(One note: Although it might be debatable at this point, we left off those who had both 2b/3B eligibility at the beginning of the season. Those players will be covered in the 2B review.)

We’re going position-by-position from now until the All Star Break looking at the surprises and busts and foreshadowing the rest of the season.

Joey Votto: More valuable than Prince Albert so far

Today, let’s tackle FIRST BASEMEN.

Performing up to draft-day value: Billy Butler, Adam LaRoche

Surpassing draft-day value a bit: Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Justin Morneau, James Loney

Best production for draft investment: Paul Konerko, Aubrey Huff, Gaby Sanchez

Coming up just short of draft investment: Albert Pujols, Adrian Gonzalez

Coming up well short of draft investment: Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Mark Teixeira, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee, Chris Davis

This has been a strange year at first base.

Overall, production has been very strong. Among all batters in MLB, four of the top 10 fantasy players at any position play the 1B position. This comprises Cabrera, Votto, Pujols, and Morneau.

No surprise that the top fantasy players are 1B, but what is surprising is the order of current value-to-date. Cabrera, Votto, and Morneau were drafted relatively high but not high enough according to their standing at the moment. Howard, Teixeira, and Fielder were also drafted high, but are disappointing immensely. Then again, the position has gotten a boost from surprising resurgent seasons from Konerko and Huff — both top 40 batters at any position this season.

In hindsight, it’s hard to draw many conclusions. Either you got more than what you were expecting by drafting a premium 1B high in drafts. Or you got less than what you were expecting while those who waited for latter-round options including Loney or Sanchez made a killing.

We should note that our analysis doesn’t include players like Martin Prado, Mark Reynolds, Kevin Youkilis, and others who can be played at another position. Because 1B is so deep, we assume that these players are being used elsewhere than 1B in most leagues.

The average line at the moment for a top 15 1B from Cabrera to Teixeira is 15 HR, 53 RBIs, 49 R, 2 SB, and a .301 BA. Compare that to our look at shortstops yesterday and you’ll see the difference.

Looking forward, despite the seeming upheaval, we probably wouldn’t make too many significant changes in our evaluation. Give us a choice between Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, and we’re still going with Prince Albert. Yes, we’re still waiting for Teixeira to come on, and he’s still a good bet to do so. We’d probably prefer Votto to Teixeira right now, however.  Similarly, Pena and Berkman are good candidates for strong second halves. We probably don’t have quite as much confidence in Derrek Lee thanks to his inconsistency over the past few years. Consider Fielder and Howard to be in the middle of the confidence line, and there’s reason to believe the strong seasons of Konerko and Huff will continue. It’s hard for prospects to crack a dent in 1B rankings, but a couple of top ones stand an outside chance including Logan Morrison of the Florida Marlins and Brett Wallace of the Toronto Blue Jays.

These are the batters this season who have significantly surpassed their draft day investment so far. Higher up means more production thus far. Will these batters have as good a second half as they’ve been in the first half this season? Let’s take a look at two metrics.

BABIP…

HR/FB %…

Not all batters have the same BABIP, but usually batters can be expected to be around .300, give or take about .02. The higher the BABIP, the more luck. The lower the BABIP, the less luck.

Not all batters have the same HR/FB %, but usually batters can be expected to be around 10%. The higher the HR/FB%, the more luck. The lower the HR/FB%, the less luck. Especially compared to career norms.

The data predicts Alex Rios, Vlad Guerrero, Chris B. Young, Magglio Ordonez, James Loney, Josh Willingham, Aubrey Huff, and Marlon Byrd to be about as strong in the second half. Expect some regression from the others.

(Click on the images for a larger view.)

Some notes…

Hot & Believable:

• Jose Reyes has a .384 OBP this month so far. Owners like the five steals, but love the four home runs. The Mets SS has gradually increased both his contact rate and walk rate — a very good sign. His stolen bases are really a matter of confidence after recuperating from injury. The only thing that might be a little flukish is the power. In the past 31 days, his groundball rate is actually over 50%. He won’t continue this power, but otherwise, seems a good bet to be pretty good at a thin position.
• CC Sabathia started the season by being good & very lucky. He then was bad & very unlucky. Only over the last three starts has he been both good & lucky. Although we don’t put that much into half-season splits, Sabathia has a track record for turning it on later in the season. In the last three years, he was virtually unhittable in the second half. Let’s hope that a K rate over 9 over the last three games compared to a K rate of 7.4 on the season is a trend.

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The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

As we approach the one-quarter mark for the season, it’s time for another Market Report.

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The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Now that we’re into mid-May, it’s time to start giving some merit to the standings. We should begin to address any glaring holes, be they a certain categorical weakness or a below-average player at a particular roster spot. With that, let’s take a look at this week’s Matrix.

We’ll start today by looking at a couple of players who have regained their status as fantasy stars.

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By Andrew Gephardt

We’re still waiting for the stats to “normalize,” but it’s time for another Market Report.

Analysis after the jump:

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