Apr 26, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
This week we look at the following players:
Analysis after the jump:
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Apr 19, 2010 By Andrew Gephardt
With two weeks of play in the books, it’s time for another Fantasy Baseball Matrix.
Time to explain what you see above.
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Apr 11, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
The reality is that we’re working with incredibly small sample sizes at this early stage in the season. The best piece of advice for any fantasy owner in April is to realize that one week’s worth of games tells us very little about how the season will play out. There’s a reason you drafted Johnny Damon in the middle rounds last month; rest assured, he will hit over .200 this season. At the same time, even if it’s hard to draw firm conclusions with small amounts of data, it’s always best to be ahead of a trend rather than behind it. Your league-mates won’t wait and if you want the hot free agent or if you’ve decided to short sell a sinking stock, you’re going to need to make a decision quickly. Valuations have already changed — albeit very slightly.
With that, I’d like to introduce you to the new Market Report Matrix. Each week I’ll be analyzing player valuations based on percent ownership data to offer some advice about possible pickups as well as players to target in trades. The Matrix will serve as a pictorial guide to such columns.
Let’s take a look at this week’s matrix. This first week I’ll refer to ADP data instead of percent ownership data, as market value is still based mostly on drafts from last month. Also, I’ll be the first to admit that I’ve cherry-picked rather obvious selections in some cases, but once again we can’t jump to conclusions just based on a week of games.
First of all, a couple of players who are off to hot starts that I believe are legitimate are Vladimir Guerrero and Martin Prado. Here’s why.
Mar 25, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
We’ve devoted a good portion of this offseason to analyzing the perceived values of players in the fantasy marketplace. Given that the majority of drafts will take place between now and Opening Day, we thought it might be a good idea to take one last look at the updated market values of players to see if the hype revolving around certain players has influenced their stocks.
Accordingly, let’s take a look at the players whose ADP has changed the most in the past month. Keep in mind we’re only including players who were in Mock Draft Central’s Top 200 as of mid-February in these lists.
Greatest Spikes in ADP
Greatest Declines in ADP
So what to make of these lists? First of all, let’s analyze the greatest risers in ADP. We notice some breakout candidates who have received a fair amount of hype in Julio Borbon, Erick Aybar, Rickie Weeks, Chris Davis, and Nolan Reimold. While the upside remains high for all of these players, the price is no longer as cheap. Along those same lines, we find a couple of players who broke out last year but have been touted to take their games to the next level in Brett Anderson and Gordon Beckham. Anderson still looks like a solid option in Round 13, but there are better players available than Beckham in Round 7.
Unfortunately, we also observe the market corrections for once severely undervalued players like Mike Napoli, Denard Span, Scott Baker, Rajai Davis, and Ryan Dempster. Even so, all of these players still look reasonably priced despite the recent uptick in asking price. Lastly, we see a number of bounceback candidates: Ryan Ludwick, Vernon Wells, Corey Hart, Ryan Doumit, Adrian Beltre, Cole Hamels, Chris Iannetta, and Jorge Cantu. It’s difficult to determine exactly why this group of players has witnessed a spike in market values. While I’m not as bullish on some of these players, I could still see myself selecting Hamels in Round 8, Beltre in Round 15, or Doumit in Round 16.
Taking a look at the greatest fallers in ADP, we naturally find some players dealing with injuries like Joe Nathan, JP Howell, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, Brian Roberts, and Jose Reyes. We also have one who has yet to find a job in Jermaine Dye. Randy Wolf and Neftali Feliz have fallen simply due to previously absurd Mock Draft Central pre-set rankings. Next, the fantasy community has begun to realize that the breakout seasons of Garrett Jones and David Aardsma last year will be difficult to repeat. Overall then, Lilly may end up as a bargain this year, but I’m on board with the rest of these reductions in price.
Beyond those names, it’s difficult to explain the reasoning behind the fall in stock among some of these other players, opening the door for possible buying opportunities. In particular, I’m not sure what the fantasy community has against Adam Lind (ADP 52) and Kurt Suzuki (142); both look like relative bargains to me.
Mar 16, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
It’s time for the final installment in our series in which we’ve analyzed the pre-set rankings provided by popular fantasy baseball sites. This week let’s compare CBS’s rankings to those of Mock Draft Central.
Here are the greatest discrepancies between this pair of rankings:
10 Hitters Ranked Significantly Higher by CBS (by Value Difference)
Mar 9, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
Just as we did last time with Yahoo fantasy baseball rankings, let’s compare ESPN’s rankings to those of Mock Draft Central. Once again, only players ranked in ESPN’s top 200 were considered for the lists containing the widest spreads. After all, at that stage in the draft it becomes increasingly challenging to predict which players will be taken next anyway. Another thing to keep in mind is that ESPN standard leagues only use one catcher.
Here then are the greatest discrepancies between this pair of rankings:
10 Hitters Ranked Significantly Higher by ESPN (by Value Difference)
1. Brett Gardner Continue Reading »
2. Lastings Milledge
3. Carl Crawford
4. Derek Jeter
5. Brendan Ryan
6. Juan Pierre
7. Delmon Young
8. Ichiro Suzuki
9. Franklin Gutierrez
10. Hideki Matsui
Mar 2, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
Now that we’re into March, it’s time to really focus and plan appropriately for our drafts. Throughout the past few months we’ve analyzed some of the best values based on Mock Draft Central data. The vast majority of fantasy players, though, use other sites to run their leagues.
There’s no denying that the designated league site of play influences the results of any draft. Whether we like to admit it or not, most of us are reluctant to select a player far down the pre-set rankings list. Accordingly, let’s analyze the pre-set rankings so that we might have a better idea as to how our drafts will play out. First up this week will be Yahoo! Fantasy Sports.
In order to determine which players Yahoo values differently, let’s compare Yahoo rankings to those of Mock Draft Central. Before providing a list of the greatest discrepancies, however, a few short notes. First of all, we’re only including Yahoo’s top 200 in the list of players that the site is higher on than Mock Draft Central. After all, Yahoo’s rankings are only useful up to a certain point. Call it laziness or whatever you want, but I highly doubt the analysts at Yahoo actually think, for instance, that Chris Iannetta is only the 795th best player heading into 2010. Along those same lines, we’re only including players in Mock Draft Central’s top 200 in the list of players for whom Yahoo has provided a relatively low ranking.
With that out of the way, here are the players with the greatest discrepancies between the sets of rankings:
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Feb 27, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
Continuing with our series on the best and worst values based on various projection systems, this week let’s take a look at Marcel projections. Respected sabermetrician Tom Tango developed this projection system. Marcel projections are very simple by nature, taking into account only the past three seasons of MLB statistics with recent data given the most weight.
Once again, keep in mind that the ADPs for superstars don’t correspond perfectly to their expected market values. No, Albert Pujols isn’t really overvalued. Then again, Jose Reyes and Troy Tulowitzki are indeed going too early in drafts based on Marcel projections.
You’ll notice that all of the best values among pitchers are starters, not relievers. Unlike CHONE, Marcel does project saves totals. However, the projections for saves are relatively conservative and in effect depress the dollar values of closers.
Comparing with last week’s analysis of CHONE, we do find some similarities. Once more, Russell Martin and David Ortiz rank among the best offensive values. Josh Beckett, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez similarly represent some of the best pitching values. On the other hand, Josh Hamilton, Aramis Ramirez, and Manny Ramirez are repeat offenders as the worst offensive values. Likewise, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Neftali Feliz, and Brandon Webb are among the worst pitching values.
At the same time, we also find a couple major differences between CHONE and Marcel. Heath Bell and Carlos Marmol were undervalued based on CHONE yet are overvalued according to Marcel. This reinforces the fact that the value of closers is largely tied to their saves total. Finally, one hitter was among the best values according to CHONE yet is the worst value overall based on Marcel: Jose Reyes is the ultimate boom or bust pick in 2010.
Here is a list of the best and worst values according to Marcel.
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Feb 21, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
Over the next few weeks we’re going to take a look how various projection systems value the MLB player pool in 12-team mixed leagues. We’ll then compare these dollar values to the market values of players based on their current ADPs. First up this week will be CHONE developed by Sean Smith.
You’ll notice by our deeper look into CHONE projections that many superstars are projected as overvalued. Values don’t fit perfectly with inflation at the very top end of the player pool. Don’t overreact to seeing players like Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun marked as overvalued. On the other hand, based on relative scale, we do see that players such as Evan Longoria and Justin Upton are going too early in drafts based on CHONE projections.
One theme here will be that many pitchers are undervalued. If you truly crunch the numbers, the hitting to pitching split should be roughly 60 / 40 in terms of the distribution of auction dollars. In the fantasy marketplace, however, the split is closer to 70 / 30. There will always be plenty of value available among pitchers.
One additional note: CHONE doesn’t project saves. Accordingly, we chose to use the relatively new projected save totals from ESPN. Once again, a significant portion of a closer’s value derives from his saves total. For closers especially then, we should take these dollar values with a grain of salt.
And the ranking of the best and worst values in drafts according to CHONE projections…
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Feb 15, 2010 The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.
By Andrew Gephardt
We conclude our weekly look at each position by analyzing the group of players —relief pitchers — who drive fantasy owners crazy more so than any other position.
Just as in the case of starting pitchers, the fantasy community as a whole significantly misvalues closers. Selecting an elite closer like Jonathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera in the sixth round isn’t a bad decision in and of itself. Indeed, each and every year you’ll find closers among the top 50 fantasy players on any Player Rater.
One problem with this approach to drafting closers, though, is the opportunity cost in making such a pick. After all, at that stage in the draft there are still reliable hitters like Shane Victorino and Bobby Abreu available.
It’s worth pointing out that as we enter the 2010 season, only two bullpens haven’t settled on a closer: Toronto and Houston. While things may seem resolved on the surface, rest assured that many closers will lose their jobs again this year due to injury or poor results. Just as with starting pitchers then, I’m unlikely to end up with any of the elite closers, too. Let’s once again break down the ADPs provided by Mock Draft Central for relief pitchers into tiers:
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