September 2, 2010:

• Carlos Gonzalez now has a 30-20 season on the books after clobbering another HR last night. He’s also hitting .329 and easily on pace for triple digits in both runs and RBIs. Car-Go is certainly making his case as a bonafide 1st round pick heading into next season, but it’s going to be a very risky one. He’s no doubt having a fine season, and we have no reason not to expect a very good September, but there’s only one player in baseball showing  a spectacularly lucky BABIP over .370 and HR/FB rate over 21%. He shares some characteristics with Matt Kemp and Mark Reynolds same time last year.

• Brandon Allen is one September call-up who has already made a mark with a grand slam HR in his first game with the Diamondbacks this season. Allen is a big-swinging prospect who has racked up a lot of home runs in his time in the minors. He’s made tremendous strides in plate discipline this season in Reno with 83 walks to 95 strikeouts and a .405 OBP. Right now, he’s best reserved for AL-only or deep-mixed leagues but worth keeping tabs on.

• Desmond Jennings, one of the top prospects in baseball, got a start in RF for the Rays last night and hit in the #2 lineup spot. Jennings figures as impending free agent Carl Crawford’s replacement next season, and he’s often been compared to him: Lots of speed, good on-base ability, strong fielding, and decent, developing pop. Only injuries have held Jennings back. Although he got a start last night, it remains to be seen how often he’ll play over the next few weeks. Ben Zobrist took the seat yesterday, and the team also has to get newly acquired Brad Hawpe playing time.

• Aroldis Chapman notched a win yesterday in relief. There’s no shortage of hype on a guy clocked at 105 MPH, but we’re sure that in the off-season, they’ll be lots of debate about whether Chapman is best served as a starter or reliever. Our bet is on the latter role. The Reds have a lot of depth in their rotation, but a closer in Francisco Cordero who continually gets more shaky as time goes on. Then again, with Dusty Baker as manager and the big financial commitment towards the Cuban prospect, all bets are off.

• Pay attention to Chris Sale in Chicago. He was drafted by the White Sox in the first round this season and just notched his first save. So far on the season, he’s struck out 16 batters in 10 innings and only allowed a single earned run. Bobby Jenks has struggled this year, and Matt Thornton and JJ Putz are due back soon, but Ozzie Guillen is another one of those unpredictable managers who often goes with the hot hand.

August 31, 2010

• Hiroki Kuroda gave up 1 hit in nearly 8 brilliant innings against the Phillies.  With a 3.39 ERA and 1.18 WHIP to go with 131 K, he has been sneaky effective this year, posting better ratios than his more heralded teammate, Chad Billingsley (3.73/1.34/123).
• J.A. Happ threw a 2-hit shutout vs. the Cardinals last night.  Outside of one blowup outing against those same Cardinals on August 4, Happ has allowed 3 runs or less in every outing this season and even with his current 2.89 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, could come at a bargain next year.
• Alex Rios keeps getting it done, filling up the box score with a homerun, stolen base, 3 R, 4 RBI on a 5/6 night.  (Just 1 SB from on an interesting 1-2-3-4-5-6 line!)  He is a short power streak away from getting into the 25/30 club this year and should be one of the top outfielders drafted in 2011.
• Aroldis Chapman is here, albeit too late for those in redraft leagues.  But for those in keeper leagues, it should be interesting to see how the 105 mph hurler works out of the pen.
• Mark Reynolds broke the 30-HR plane last night with 2 shots.  However, his .215 average and paltry 7 SB has left owners thinking bust.  Where are you drafting Reynolds in 2011?

August 30, 2010:

• Manny Ramirez is taking his act to Chicago. The Dodgers (6 1/2 games out of WC) have decided to give him to the White Sox (4 1/2 games out of AL Central) in a divorcing-owners, sick-of-Manny-being-Manny salary dump. This could be good news for Manny, who gets to play DH everyday in a hitters’ ballpark as opposed to being rested once or twice a week in a pitchers’ ballpark. In fact, it may be good news for other White Sox stars benefitting from better lineup protection. Good for the team? We’ll see.

• Ryan Raburn is making us look pretty good. A week ago, we wrote that Raburn was on the verge of something. Since then, he’s gone 12-for-29 with 3 HR and 9 RBIs. Raburn is slightly old to be a real fantasy prospect, but he’s got a little Luke Scott in him and most importantly, has 2B eligibility.

• Ivan Nova had an intriguing debut yesterday, starting for the Yankees. Lasting into the sixth inning, he only allowed run earned run against an imposing White Sox lineup and struck out seven. Nova, who is being investigated by MLB for injections of some sort, has had an impressive minor league season  this year, 12-3 with a 2.86 ERA, although we’d be more confident in him if he had shown a better strikeout rate in the lower leagues.

• Cole Hamels had a 3.78 ERA before the All Star Break and has had a 2.47 ERA since. Part of this is due to luck, but it appears he’s been using his fastball less of late in favor of the off-speed stuff. An easy schedule has helped too. Last four games played were against the Mets, Giants, Astros, and a shutout yesterday at the Padres. Too bad hindsight doesn’t mean much.

• Lots of superstars nicked up with day-to-day injuries including Troy Tulowitzki’s hurt groin (day-to-day); Hanley Ramirez‘ banged up head; Mark Teixeira’s injured thumb; Brandon Phillips‘ bruised hand; Jose Reyes‘ painful oblique; Buster Posey’s aggravated forearm;

August 28, 2010:

• The Twins acquired Brian Fuentes in a trade, meaning he’s lost his closer gig. Too bad too, as Fuentes was having a very nice season, having recovered his ability to strike out batters. Fuentes will be setting up Matt Capps in Minnesota. Meanwhile, in Los Angeles, Fernando Rodney moves into the closer position. We don’t think he’s too long for this job. Not with three consecutive seasons of a FIP over 4 and a dwindling strikeout rate. Of course, there’s only a month left in the season so Rodney may stick it out. But over the long run, especially in keeper leagues, keep both eyes on Kevin Jepsen as The Guy of the Future.

• Jay Bruce hit his 14th, 15th, and 16th HRs of the season on consecutive at-bats last night. Great day, but how many owners who actually drafted Bruce for his 30-40 HR potential actually got to enjoy it? It’s probably more remarkable that he only had 13 going into yesterday than the number he hit yesterday. Still, the production growth of hyped young players is rarely a straight line upwards so it’d hardly be surprising if a breakout year comes at some point. Maybe we should coin the phrase pre-post-hype-sleeper.

• Logan Morrison hit his first HR of the season yesterday. Unlike Bruce or teammate Mike Stanton, Morrison isn’t a top prospect because of his power; Rather, he fits into the Billy Butler/James Loney school of corner prospects. In other words, a very nice batting eye and the potential to have decent but never spectacular pop. He’s hitting .318 in his rookie season. In terms of fantasy value in seasons ahead, it seems like he’ll have a pretty nice floor.

• Brian Roberts is having hip problems again. The last thing you want to see in a player getting up in age is hip trouble. Faulty hips are for people in retirement communities, not for speedy middle infielders. On the other hand, the extraordinary amount of time that Roberts has missed this season is definitely going to drag down his draft price tag next season. Some won’t touch him. Us? Hmm, awfully tempting.

• Tim Lincecum gave up four runs last night, and four runs in the previous start, and five runs in the start before that, and six runs in the start before that. The consensus #1 starting pitcher heading into 2010 now has a 3.8 ERA on the season. Walks definitely seem to be taking a toll on Lincecum. When you’re drafting next spring, and thinking about making a huge investment in a pitcher, remember this week — Stephen Strasburg has Tommy John surgery and Lincecum is not even among the top 50 pitchers on ESPN’s player rater.

August 26, 2010:

• It’s no secret that Pablo Sandoval has been one of the biggest busts this season. Coming off a 25-HR, .330 AVG season at the age of 24, there was no reason to expect such mediocre output this year. Not with a good batting eye. Nevertheless, Sandoval has struggled this year, although not of late.  In August, Sandoval has 5 HRs and a .326 AVG. He went 4-for-5 yesterday. No matter how well he does in September, he’ll be slipping in drafts next spring, but he still holds potential to be an elite producer for time to come.

• Stephen Drew has likewise been a bust. Although he wasn’t drafted nearly as high as Sandoval, many expected a lot more from a shortstop who hit 21 HRs in 2008 and is now at the prime age of 27. Yesterday, Drew hit 25% of his season HR total, smacking 2 out of the park. However, as evidenced by a career line of 43% fly ball rate and a 7.3% HR/FB rate — both bleh numbers — it’s clear that Drew can’t be counted upon for pop anymore.

• Time to talk about Brian Matusz… You sensing a trend? Coming into the season, the Orioles pitcher was one of the favorites to capture AL ROY award honors.  Just four wins, a 5.28 ERA, and a 1.5 WHIP this season indicate he’ll end up much short of that. The bright side is that he’s only 23 years old and has allowed one or fewer runs in four of his previous five games. He may be borderline draft-worthy in most mixed leagues next year, but he still holds enormous potential.

• Koji Uehara was a pretty good sleeper coming into this season. His 2009 rookie campaign ended early due to injury, but before he went down, he showed a 3.56 FIP. The Orioles announced he was moving to the bullpen coming into this season, which portended even better numbers in an easier role. Plus, the team’s bullpen was thin on talent. Alas, his 2010 season was again derailed by injury, but Uehara is now back and has seemingly assumed what many of us expected: the closer role.

• Finally today, let’s talk about Hanley Ramirez, who has gone 7-for-10 in his last two games with 3 stolen bases. Let’s be honest and say that we all expected more than 16 HR, 22 SB, and a .285 average from a player who went #2 overall in most drafts. Of course, shortstop is bad, bad, bad this season and even in a very down year, Hanley’s production has dwarfed his peers by a good two yards. Since he’s only 26 years old — yup, only 26 — it’s still very likely that Hanley is the cream of the crop heading into next season. There will be many next year who decide that Miguel Cabrera’s numbers are more worthy than Hanley’s in choosing between the two. We still think the smart money goes on Hanley.

August 24:

• Rich Harden has had a putrid season that combined with his injury history makes him unappetizing to own. However, Harden had a very nice game off of the DL last night, no-hitting a fairly good Twins lineup through 6.2 innings. His fastball was up a couple of ticks last night. That may be a nice sign for things to come as decreased velocity seems partly to blame why a guy who has averaged more than a strikeout per inning has seen his K/9 rate to fall to 7.75 in 2010.

• One of the biggest beneficiaries of the Derrek Lee-to-Atlanta trade has been Xavier Nady, who not only is playing every day right now, but is also batting in the prime #5 slot in the lineup. Nady hasn’t shown his old power — only 4 HRs this season and none since the ASB — but he is getting on base at an elite level these past few weeks. Interim Cubs manager Mike Quade has shuffled his lineup a bit, moving high-OBP guys up in the order, meaning Nady could be an underrated source of RBIs in the final weeks.

• Jose Bautista hit his 39th and 40th HRs this season. He now outclasses the #2 HR-hitter, Albert Pujols, by seven HRs. He’ll easily be flirting with a 50 HR season this year, which will mean much agony for those going into next season attempting to figure out whether 2010 was a fluke. Bautista is sure to be a controversial 2011 fantasy baseball draft pick. He’ll also be responsible for quite a few articles headlined, “Who is the next Jose Bautista?”

• Ryan Raburn went 3-for-4 yesterday. His overall numbers this season don’t suggest anything special, but Raburn oozes power potential as 16 HRs in 261 ABs in 2009 and 5 HRs since the ASB will attest. Moreover, he’s got 2B-eligibility. A 48% fly-ball rate and a low 8% HR-FB rate suggest that Raburn could be on the verge of a nice power streak with better luck.

• Streamers on alert: Travis Wood takes 2.65 ERA/0.88 WHIP/4:1 K:BB to San Francisco tonight. Jake Westbrook takes great numbers against National League teams to Pittsburgh tomorrow. On the slightly more risky front, Jordan Zimmerman gets activated by the Nationals on Thursday. Zimmerman averaged more than a strikeout-per-inning in his rookie season before undergoing Tommy John surgery that has kept him out for a year. Don’t forget about him.

8/23:

• Two young pitchers had impressive performances yesterday. Mike Minor struck out 12 batters in 6 IP in a win against the Cubs. It was Minor’s third quality start in three outings as he’s shown he can be quite effective on the MLB level. Minor came up to the bigs earlier this month after boasting an elite strikeout rate at lower-levels. Meanwhile, Daniel Hudson struck out 9 batters and allowed no earned runs in a no-decision against the Rockies. Hudson’s move to the NL has done wonders for him. Since being traded to Arizona, Hudson has a 1.72 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 36 innings.

• The Yankees put Alex Rodriguez on the DL, a crushing blow to his fantasy owners, who may be turning to Omar Infante as a replacement. Infante smacked 2 HR, 4 RBIs, and scored four times yesterday. Fortuitous timing? Another potential replacement, Chase Headley, hit his second home run in three games. As for the Yankees plan B, the team called up Eduardo Nunez, whose first hit was a go-ahead RBI. Don’t expect much from him.

• Manny Ramirez finally returned to the Dodgers lineup, but went 0-for-3. It’ll be interesting to watch what team Manny will be playing for next week. The Dodgers are expected to put him on waivers, and could release him outright to save money, being that they are 8 games out of the wild card race. Manny’s in a contract year and he could be moving to a more hitting-friendly environment, although he’s Manny, so there’s no use in projecting what might come.

• One more young pitcher who had a great game: Jhoulys Chacin struck out nine batters and only allowed four base-runners in a win over Hudson and the Diamondbacks. Chacin is only owned in about a fourth of leagues, but he’s striking out more than a batter per inning, has a very good K:BB rate, induces ground balls, and has a 3.67 xFIP. For perspective, Chacin’s teammate, Ubaldo Jimenez, has a 3.74 xFIP.

• Jason Heyward hit two home runs yesterday. Considering that Heyward was voted onto the All Star team and has been considered the de facto leader for Rookie of the Year from the first day of Spring Training, it’s hard to believe that Heyward only has 14 HRs on the season. His average is only .257 too. Let’s note the positives. He accrued 14 HRs, 62 R, 57 RBIs, 9 SB missing a few weeks of playing time with injury. He’s shown tremendous plate discipline with 57 walks. And of course, he’s only 21 years old. It’ll be interesting to see how quickly he can grow. He seems primed to be one of the best players in baseball, but he’s not there yet. How much will those in fantasy baseball be willing to pay for the potential going in next season?

• Bonus: We’re going to have some football football content this week, including projections, some strategy based on simulation, and a couple of hype clouds.

• We can now confirm that Hisanori Takahashi will be “the guy” in the 9th inning for Jerry Manuel going forward. If you haven’t picked him up yet, there may still be some time. In other closer news,  Brandon Lyon appears to be a temporary fill-in for Houston while Matt Lindstrom works out some kinks. Yet Lyon did not get the ball in a save situation yesterday. But unless you’re in a really tight saves race, we wouldn’t worry too much about Lyon.
• Daniel Hudson, who’d already raised his fantasy profile immensely in August with three solid starts, took his game to a whole ‘nother level on Tuesday. Against an impressive CIN lineup, he struck out 10 and walked 0 in 7 innings while allowing 9 hits and 3 runs. For those keeping score at home, that gives Hudson 27 K, 4 BB, 2.12 ERA and 0.88 WHIP in 29+ August innings. While Hudson was largely a groundball pitcher in the minors, he’s been more of a fly-ball type in the majors. Nonetheless, despite pitching half his games in two bandbox stadiums (CHA and ARZ), the flyballs haven’t really punished him yet, and we can’t ignore his 3.93 xFIP.
• More on rookie pitchers: Travis Wood will be recalled from AAA to replace Mike Leake in the Reds rotation. Leake will head to the bullpen for the time being. Despite being managed by Dusty Baker, the Reds are taking great care with Leake’s young and vulernable arm. They shouldn’t miss him too much, as Wood’s been putting up some solid numbers in his own right.
• Josh “The Hammer” Willingham appears likely to undergo season-ending knee surgery next week. It’s a shame because he was a beast prior to the all-star break, on pace for about 30 HR, 85 RBI, 85 R and 10 SB with a .280 avg. He’s had a miserable second half, and his knee problem might have something to do with it.
• Three 2B mainstays - Chase Utley, Dustin Perdoia and Martin Prado - returned from the DL Tuesday. While Utley and Pedroia went 0-fer, Prado promptly netted 3 hits and scored 3 times.

August 17, 2010

• In an interesting development, Francisco Rodriguez was discovered to have torn a ligament in his thumb in the much publicized fight with a family member last week at Citi Field, and is now out for the season.  Last night, Hisanori Takahashi got the call in the ninth and closed out a 3-1 victory with a 1-2-3 inning and a strikeout.
• The Braves keep delivering walk-off wins and the Dodgers pen keeps blowing leads.  Both Hong-Chih Kuo and Octavio Dotel were ineffective: heading into the ninth with a 3-1 lead, the duo combining to allow 3 runs and 5 baserunners while only recording 1 out.  Jonathan Broxton may have his job back sooner than expected.
• After back-to-back poor outings vs. the Yankees and Red Sox, owners were starting to bail on Shaun Marcum.  He responded with a brilliant 1-hit outing against the A’s.  Sadly, that one hit was a no doubt about it homer from the recently activated Conor Jackson.  Keep in mind that Marcum’s ERA vs. the AL East is more than a full run higher than the rest of the league, and that disparity has been much worse the past two months.
• Jonathan Niese added to his interesting streak of 7 IP – 1 ER no-decisions (3 in a row) to lower his ERA to 3.38.  Wandy Rodriguez had a very similar line in the same game and has now lowered his ERA over two full points (6.09 to 4.04) in just under two months.  I think it’s safe to say he is back to being the reliable starter we expected coming into 2010.
• Mad Max Scherzer continued his turnaround, shutting down the Yankees over 6 innings for the win.  That’s 6 straight games with 3 ER or less.  His K/9 is actually the lowest of his professional career, but an 8.20 rate is nothing to complain about if Scherzer keeps delivering quality outings.  Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher both left that game early and are day-to-day with minor muscle injuries.

Five things you need to know this morning:

• What a game in Starlin Castro’s debut. He hits a HR in his first AB and finishes with 6 RBI.
• Meanwhile, the hot call-up of seemingly yesteryear, Ike Davis, hit 2 HR and is now hitting .314 on the season. OK, so you want us to rank ‘em, eh? OK, unless you’re desperate at SS, we’ll rank it…(1) Justin Smoak, (2) Ike Davis, (3) Starlin Castro.
• Josh Beckett is responsible for a few emotional scars this season. The latest was a 9 ER outing against the Yankees last night. His ERA now stands at 7.46 with a WHIP of 1.66. All that said, Beckett got off to a slow start last year and 8 strikeouts last night was encouraging. Not a terrible buy-low bet.
• Nick Johnson is heading to the disabled list. A shocker. The move probably works out best for owners of Jorge Posada and those other deep AL-only options on the team (Randy Winn, Marcus Thames, Francisco Cervelli), who will now share the DH spot.
• Mat Latos and Jamie Moyer both pitched shutouts last night. Both allowed only two hits. Both allowed no walks. That’s about where the similarity ends.

Saturday Special

The five guys whose player rater value in 5×5 standard leagues has most improved over the last two weeks: Jon Lester, Scott Olsen, Jayson Werth, JD Drew, Nick Swisher.

The five guys whose player rater value in 5×5 standard leagues has most declined over the last two weeks: Edwin Jackson, Joel Pineiro, Max Scherzer, Ben Sheets, Nelson Cruz.