By Eriq

Last week, we posted a column that took a look at how fantasy teams can catch up in ERA. The idea was to be a bit more methodological and examine what trading scenarios yielded targeted gains in the category.

Let’s now take a brief look at WHIP.

First, here’s a chart at how many hits + walks a team* has to shave from here to the end of the season to make up ground in the WHIP category:

OK, the numbers don’t mean much until we provide context. So again, let’s look at ZIPS rest-of-season projections to see what kind of swaps save hits+walks:

Compared to making up ground in ERA, it’s very hard to use reliever swaps to make up a WHIP difference. For example, going from Carlos Marmol (projected WHIP: 1.27) to Heath Bell (projected WHIP: 1.12) yields just 9 H+BB saved. That’s not even enough to move up one hundredth of one point in WHIP.

To make up ground in WHIP will take both good luck and a swap of starting pitchers. Even then, it’s going to be tough.

Going from a pitcher with a projected WHIP around 1.4 like A.J Burnett or Barry Zito to a pitcher with an elite WHIP around 1.15 like Zach Greinke or Cliff Lee yields 20 H+BB saved. That’s good for a .015 WHIP difference in a fantasy team’s total fantasy stats. In most roto leagues, that would net a couple of points in WHIP. (The swap probably also yields gains in ERA and the other categories too.)

One of the plusses of trying to make up ground in WHIP, though, might be that it’s an under-examined category. There certainly are pitchers who may be good targets for those considering the category of WHIP above all else. These pitchers limit walks but have inflated ERAs thanks to a propensity to give up home runs. We’re talking about pitchers like Scott Baker, Javier Vazquez, Ted Lilly, or James Shields. These pitchers might be more valuable to some than others.

Going from a player like walk-happy Matt Cain to James Shields, for example, yields 15 H+BB saved in projections. Similarly, going from Jonathan Sanchez to Kevin Slowey, yields about 12 H+BB saved. I expect at this moment, Cain might have more perceived fantasy value than Shields and Sanchez might have more value than Slowey, so owners targeting WHIP may be able to sell the deal as a “downgrade,” get additional help elsewhere, and still make up ground in the WHIP category.

The ultimate lesson here is that teams who might want to make up ground in WHIP via trade probably need to be sneaky and contemplate substituting multiple players into their lineup with pitchers who have a better WHIP profile. This doesn’t have to come up from trade, of course. But it definitely is helpful to be mindful of what “gaps” in ratio categories really mean.

(*Assumes a league where teams pitch a total of 1400 innings. Different totals only effect the results a tiny extent.)

By Eriq

Let’s assume for a second that your team needs to improve in pitching in order for you to win a championship. You basically have three options:

1. Hope your pitching staff gets more lucky from here on out
2. Hope your pitching staff improves by additions via prospect call-ups or additions off of the waiver wire
3. Make a trade

Most owners will sit back and do one of the first two options. But maybe, you’re clear-headed and know that your current pitching staff just doesn’t have the stuff to improve. You don’t want to risk your season in the hands of a prospect. Maybe streaming is not very enticing either.  You want stability and so you start thinking of a trade.

But what kind of trade do you need? Most owners may have a vague idea they’d like to improve pitching, and will shop around for great pitchers on other teams who can be helpful in attaining the goal of improving pitching. But then again, why pay for Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson if you only need Ted Lilly and Hiroki Kuroda? Sure, you may accomplish your goal of upgrading pitching, but by sacrificing too much in order to plug the leak on one end, you may cause the dam to burst on the other end.

After doing some research, I’ve decided to make the assumption that your team is targeting 1400 innings and has 850 left to pitch in the season. (Depending on your innings limit and your current pace, this might not be completely accurate, but should be close enough for this kind of exercise.)

Here’s a table showing how many earned runs you need to shave off from your current pitching staff the rest of the way:

So how do we save those runs? OK, here’s some ideas…

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By Eriq

All eyes will be on Washington tonight as phenom Stephen Strasburg takes the hill for the first time.

No doubt a lot of people will be rooting for his success, but from a behavioral economics standpoint, I wonder whether a poor outing represents a better outcome in fantasy baseball leagues.

Let’s play Game Theory “What if…”

This is just my guess about the thoughts that will go through the heads of both Strasburg owners and non-owners after the game tonight. If he pitches strongly, a combination of endowment and confirmation biases will make trading for Strasburg largely prohibitive. However, if he doesn’t dominate, owners discussing a Strasburg deal may be a bit more reasonable.

As I stated in the first column of this series, I believe that win-win trades are both possible and preferable in fantasy leagues. Typically, these kinds of deals are tough to pull off because negotiators disagree about value or get distracted by who is getting the better end of a deal.

The best time to acquire Strasburg might be right now, before he pitches, and where there’s still some uncertainty about his real value in fantasy leagues this season. Perhaps the combination of upside in return plus risk in doing nothing can propel a deal along.

Here’s a look at some recent Strasburg trades in real-life fantasy leagues. You’ll note a wide degree of difference in the value that Strasburg nets. (Some of this is the result of different formats.) Some of the players who seem to have repeatedly been exchanged for Strasburg in the last few days include Francisco Liriano, Jose Reyes, and Nelson Cruz.

Trading for Strasburg now sounds good. However, it’s likely that most Stephen Strasburg owners are so invested in having this young prospect, they’ll wish to wait to see what he’s capable of before considering a trade. Even if they need something greater than another starting pitcher, they may be reluctant before tonight’s game to make a move. In fact, they might reason to themselves that they’ll get more for Strasburg if he performs well tonight.

As a third-party observer, I’m not sure about this.

OK, a Strasburg owner will likely demand more if he performs well tonight, but will he or she get more? It’ll still only be one game. What might really just happen is that the potential trade (e.g. Stephen Strasburg for Matt Kemp) becomes more unlikely, and that might not represent a great outcome for a Strasburg owner who is doing fine in pitching and really needs help in other places. He’ll gain more leverage, but that’s not always the road towards a successful negotiation.

Instead, if he performs poorly tonight, traders may align themselves for reasonable expectations on what to expect for Strasburg going forward. No matter what occurs tonight, the truth is that Strasburg is young and unproven and while he might be a great bet to be a wonderful ace the rest of the season, the potential for Strasburg deals in leagues everywhere could come down to whether he’s seen as Roy Halladay or Francisco Liriano the rest of the way.

Trading Post: A new column about trading strategy

By Eriq

Let me start out by introducing this new column.

Some people in fantasy leagues pursue an endless amount of trades because of a compulsion to constantly finesse their rosters. Other active trades are opinionated individuals who think they know more than their competitors and can more accurately forecast a player’s value.

I’m an active trader too, but for none of the above reasons. I successfully make a lot of trades because I think I’m adept at figuring out what drives a competitor to agree to a deal — and so I’m always looking for possible trades that represent gains for both myself and my fellow league-mate.

This semi-regular column will be about those types of win-win deals and offer ideas about trading. Hopefully, by presenting some frameworks for negotiation, you may be inspired to pursue creative deal-making yourself.

The first topic has to do with depth, specifically how you might use a competitors’ perceived roster excess to your own advantage.

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