Comments on: Ranking The Best Values In 2010 Fantasy Baseball (CHONE Projections) http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937 We've Got Your Fix Tue, 07 Sep 2010 05:57:17 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: Ron http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937&cpage=1#comment-687 Ron Thu, 25 Feb 2010 23:30:31 +0000 http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937#comment-687 I think Rob makes a good point moreso in what has been discussed elsewhere on the site-- the idea of value variance. Some players like Adam Dunn or rock-solid consistent while these injured pitchers are very different. If they are healthy and perform at only 90% of their previous seasons, they blow their CHONE projections out of the water. Yet, if the injury plagues them and they spend 1/2 the year on the DL, they won't come close to the counting stats of their CHONE projections. All a projection system can really do is give a mid-value of these two possibilities in order to provide a season line. Ever player really needs a variance value to specify likely possibilities...right now that is left for each player to decide. A $15 Brandon Webb could easily make or break a season, it's all a matter of who is willing to take the risk for the upside. But you can't knock a projection system for picking a midpoint between two very real possibilities. I think Rob makes a good point moreso in what has been discussed elsewhere on the site– the idea of value variance. Some players like Adam Dunn or rock-solid consistent while these injured pitchers are very different. If they are healthy and perform at only 90% of their previous seasons, they blow their CHONE projections out of the water. Yet, if the injury plagues them and they spend 1/2 the year on the DL, they won’t come close to the counting stats of their CHONE projections. All a projection system can really do is give a mid-value of these two possibilities in order to provide a season line.

Ever player really needs a variance value to specify likely possibilities…right now that is left for each player to decide. A $15 Brandon Webb could easily make or break a season, it’s all a matter of who is willing to take the risk for the upside. But you can’t knock a projection system for picking a midpoint between two very real possibilities.

]]> By: Ender http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937&cpage=1#comment-678 Ender Tue, 23 Feb 2010 23:37:12 +0000 http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937#comment-678 I think fans tend to underestimate how risky guys recovering from an injury are and tend to overpay them. I agree with CHONE on most of those injury guys, they are just being overvalued. With later round picks I don't mind taking a high risk, high reward approach but in that $25+ category guys coming off an injury are going to kill your team more often than lead it to victory. I think fans tend to underestimate how risky guys recovering from an injury are and tend to overpay them. I agree with CHONE on most of those injury guys, they are just being overvalued. With later round picks I don’t mind taking a high risk, high reward approach but in that $25+ category guys coming off an injury are going to kill your team more often than lead it to victory.

]]> By: Rob http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937&cpage=1#comment-672 Rob Mon, 22 Feb 2010 21:28:25 +0000 http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937#comment-672 One of the problems with projection systems that don't leave any room for adjustment (like CHONE) is that if a player was injured in the prior year, it skews their value WAY down, regardless of whether or not they are recovered. I've noticed this with a few different ranking systems on Brandon Webb and Tim Hudson. Now, I think that either pitcher is still a risk to get injured again, but based upon their history I don't think it's LIKELY that either will perform nearly as bad as projected by CHONE. It would be interesting to see which players the system tags as bad values while excluding players that were injured for much of 2009. One of the problems with projection systems that don’t leave any room for adjustment (like CHONE) is that if a player was injured in the prior year, it skews their value WAY down, regardless of whether or not they are recovered. I’ve noticed this with a few different ranking systems on Brandon Webb and Tim Hudson. Now, I think that either pitcher is still a risk to get injured again, but based upon their history I don’t think it’s LIKELY that either will perform nearly as bad as projected by CHONE. It would be interesting to see which players the system tags as bad values while excluding players that were injured for much of 2009.

]]> By: CHONE’s Best Bargains – Last Player Picked http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937&cpage=1#comment-668 CHONE’s Best Bargains – Last Player Picked Mon, 22 Feb 2010 04:48:27 +0000 http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=2937#comment-668 [...] at Fantasy Ball Junkie points out what he finds to be the best fantasy bargains for 2010, according to the CHONE projections: 1. Eric Young 2. Russell Martin 3. David Ortiz 4. Julio [...] [...] at Fantasy Ball Junkie points out what he finds to be the best fantasy bargains for 2010, according to the CHONE projections: 1. Eric Young 2. Russell Martin 3. David Ortiz 4. Julio [...]

]]>