Comments on: True Value of Great Relievers, Part 1

By: MTUCache

MTUCache — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 18:00:31 +0000

Love this article. It highlights EXACTLY the strategy I’ve used to gain an advantage in roto leagues. For most owners the difference between a league setup of 1300 (or more) innings limit vs. a 1200 is pretty small. For me, that’s HUGE.

A lower inning cap in a roto league means I can easily fill those innings with starters who’s value is lower because of injury risk, with good-ratio MR guys who only pitch 70-80 innings, and my closers. It also means I can probably get away with only drafting 3 decent SPs and spot-starting another one.

What’s a good line for a decent group of 4-5 SP over a season? 3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 6 K/9? Most owners would be happy to get 900+ innings of that work out of their starters. I think that’s settling for inferior pitching, and probably drafting at least two of those guys WAY before you need to.

Figuring I can get 500 IP out of a bullpen, with the right lineup settings, means I’ve only got to get 700 out of my starters. It also means those 500 IP will probably come in close to a 3.00/1.20 ERA/WHIP, and likely at close to 1 K/IP if I get the MR guys I want (usually at the end of the draft). That advantage is huge.

In a 1200 IP league, my RPs generally win me not just Saves/Holds. They’ll win me ERA/WHIP and Ks. And if I get the right 3.5 SP to soak up those 700 IP, I’ll probably be in the top half of the Wins column too.

Can’t wait to see the sequel!

By: FBJ Editor

FBJ Editor — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 12:03:13 +0000

I’ll address that question in Part 2

By: jangstro

jangstro — Wed, 17 Mar 2010 04:40:14 +0000

Interesting. I have always wondered if a steady reliever like Rivera was worth the early pick, despite the prevailing consensus otherwise. And you haven’t even mentioned Broxton’s Ks. Does this mean that we should be thinking of Rivera, Broxton, and Papelbon as high values given where they typically go (5th-6th rounds in 12 team leagues)?

By: FBJ Editor

FBJ Editor — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:49:40 +0000

The 23 runs saved cited above doesn’t come over 9 or 10 pitchers. It came from just having Papelbon compared to Rodney. Don’t actually think the example is that extreme, either. If I wanted to go REALLY extreme, I could have used Brad Lidge as an example from 2009.

A good starter may have a 3.75 ERA. A bad starter (in fantasy) may have a 4.15 ERA. We tolerate much smaller ERA spreads from our starters and tolerate much greater ERA spreads from our relievers. Why? People are addicted to saves and don’t believe relievers do benefit/damage to our ratios.

By: Frank Kim

Frank Kim — Mon, 15 Mar 2010 20:27:20 +0000

Yes your analysis is somewhat correct. But even in your most extreme example the 23 runs saved over 9 or ten pitchers works out to about 2 runs a pitcher. This is why in the end it does not matter that much in my opinion what the ERA and WHIP of a closer is.

If you took two starting pitchers with comparable differences in ERA there would be a much larger difference in runs saved.