Comments on: Are Fantasy Baseball Experts Really Risk-Takers? http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=943 We've Got Your Fix Thu, 09 Sep 2010 03:45:26 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: dom_mason http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=943&cpage=1#comment-228 dom_mason Tue, 17 Feb 2009 18:27:48 +0000 http://www.fantasyballjunkie.com/?p=943#comment-228 I don't think your argument holds true. You are comparing fantasy baseball experts against... fantasy baseball experts, therefore you would not expect high correlation and a low standard deviation. To see if your hypothesis is true you would have to compare how experts draft compared to actual drafts with non-experts. Plus most "non-experts" follow the draft guide that was created by an "expert", who was bias about players they liked. Not sure if the data would be available, but if you waited till the season started and then ran an regression analysis of Yahoo / ESPN ADP with those considered experts verse non experts with a few different factors to account for scoring differences, I bet you would see the "experts" end up with a more aggressive approach to projected statistics verse past statistics. I assume we are calling "experts", nerds like us to talk fantasy baseball, read fantasy baseball blogs, and do online mock drafts in the cold winter months and non-experts the people who join random yahoo leagues after purchasing a magazine off the shelf a day before their draft. I don’t think your argument holds true. You are comparing fantasy baseball experts against… fantasy baseball experts, therefore you would not expect high correlation and a low standard deviation. To see if your hypothesis is true you would have to compare how experts draft compared to actual drafts with non-experts. Plus most “non-experts” follow the draft guide that was created by an “expert”, who was bias about players they liked.

Not sure if the data would be available, but if you waited till the season started and then ran an regression analysis of Yahoo / ESPN ADP with those considered experts verse non experts with a few different factors to account for scoring differences, I bet you would see the “experts” end up with a more aggressive approach to projected statistics verse past statistics.

I assume we are calling “experts”, nerds like us to talk fantasy baseball, read fantasy baseball blogs, and do online mock drafts in the cold winter months and non-experts the people who join random yahoo leagues after purchasing a magazine off the shelf a day before their draft.

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