This year, ESPN rolled out new online auction capabilities for fantasy baseball leagues. We haven’t tested the product ourselves, but we hear that others have found the experience enjoyable.

We are especially pleased that ESPN has released the live results of both drafts and auctions conducted upon its website.

This allows us to analyze the results side-by-side and figure out some of the ways that 2009 average auction values (AAV) and 2009 average draft position (ADP) differ.

Here’s a scatterplot that visualizes the difference between the two. Points correspond on the X-axis to ADP and on the Y-axis to AAV. As always, you need to have Java software on your browser to view and interact with this graph. 

You’ll see by the slope of the curve that ADP and AAV roughly match up. We haven’t run the data, but we suspect a great deal of correlation between the two.

However, the correlation isn’t perfect and we can spot some differences.

Look at the diagram to the right. Here we’ve drawn a slope through the the middle of the dots. Consider the line to be the mass average — an average of both auction values and draft values.

If you go back to the chart above, you can hover your cursor above the dots to see the players who command a higher auction value than their draft position would predict, and the players who command a higher draft position than their average draft position might indicate.

Doing so, we notice that pitchers seem to go for premiums in auction settings. Take Jonathan Papelbon vs. Vladimir Guerrero for example. In average drafts, Guerrero typically goes two slots before Papelbon. However, in auctions, Papelbon commands on average, more than $3.50 more than Guerrero.

Obviously, the reverse is true as well. Many hitters have a bit of a premium in drafts. Take Carlos Delgado vs. Joba Chamberlain. In auctions, Joba has a $5.50 advantage on Delgado. That’s not the case in drafts: Delgado is typically picked first. 

On the pitching side, relievers tend to be valued even greater in auctions.

On the hitting side, “sleepers,” catchers, stolen-base machines, and players who unexpectedly performed well last year tend to get a bit of extra credit in drafts.

In a future post, we’ll revisit this topic and try to formulate some theories on why auctions and drafts see player values differently. In the past, we’ve explored factors that influence pricing at auctions and price distribution at auctions, and we’d like to also explore some of the factors that influence draft position. In the meantime, you can leave some of your own theories and observations in the comment section below.