The Adam Con-DUNN-Drum

Mar 17, 2009

Our latest column at The Hardball Times is up.

The article focuses on the importance of balance, raises the issue of negative value, and details a few players this year who are expected to creep very close to the average in the five major fantasy batting categories in 12-team leagues.

In reaction to the piece, Paul Sporer of the blog, Baseball By Paul, makes a fair point. He takes issue with our assessment that “Any team that rosters Dunn will need several bonafide average studs to balance his yearly flirtation with the Mendoza Line.” (italics added)

Sporer points to a post he wrote in early January that examined this very question. On his blog, he concluded that having a batting average stud like Joe Mauer or Ichiro Suzuki would be enough to offset the average dead-weight produced by someone like Adam Dunn.

We’ll admit that it make not take “several.” One player who hits for a .310 AVG may be enough.

Here’s the problems with this strategy, however.

1. There aren’t a lot of guys who are projected to hit .310. These are the best candidates to do so: Albert Pujols, David Wright, Dustin Pedroia, Ichiro Suzuki, Joe Mauer, Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Placido Polanco.

2. With the exception of Polanco, all of these players should go extremely high in drafts and auctions. They require a lot of investment. Rostering Dunn and Ichiro will cost a 3rd round pick and a 6th round pick. Rostering Hunter Pence and Torii Hunter will cost an 8th and 9th round pick. How much difference in the cumulative stats between the two pairs?

3. With the exception of Wright, Pedroia, and Suzuki, the others have negative values in stolen bases. Rostering Adam Dunn and Miguel Cabrera, for example, puts pressure on a fantasy team to make up steals elsewhere. Obviously possible, but that steals demon is probably going to have his own negative value in HRs and RBIs. The idea of using specialized labor on an assembly line in the interests of mass production dates back to Henry Ford’s automobiles, and it can work, but…

4. Division of labor raises risk. Among the names above, Ichiro is 35 years old (albeit a very fit 35-year-old). Joe Mauer has been experiencing back problems. Chipper’s injuries are well known. Polanco is 33 years old and has a history of injuries. And while there isn’t much sign to suggest that Adam Dunn is wearing down these days, he is moving from a hitters park to Washington, D.C. Lots of X factors that could potentially upset a fantasy owner’s careful delineation of job duties. Finally leading to…

5. My conclusion that if you want certainty in a division of labor workforce, prepare yourself to have backups and contingencies.

Ultimately, that’s why I used the word, “several.”

2 Comments

1 Comment

pjs24 • Mar 17, 2009 @1:12 pm

“he concluded that having a batting average stud like Joe Mauer or Ichiro Suzuki would be enough to offset the average dead-weight produced by someone like Adam Dunn.”

Unfortunately my final conclusion wasn’t that you need an AVG beast like Ichiro to counterweight Dunn. I was merely showing the differences between the elites like those two and the AVG anchors like Dunn. I did the piece to show that these guys have more value than perceived because so many are afraid of the batting average. Mark Reynolds has an ADP of 242 which is just absurd when you consider his power and speed.

As such, I won’t delve into each of the points though I do stand by the fact that you don’t need several batting average boosters to offset Dunn. I showed that on a team of 13 with a .280 average, Dunn brings the mark down .003 points which will have varying impact on your standing. There have been 77, 84 and 92 players to hit .280+ & qualify for the batting title the last three years meaning there are plenty of options to ensure you’re insulated from a Dunn, Reynolds, Cust or Burrell.

“With the exception of Polanco, all of these players should go extremely high in drafts and auctions. They require a lot of investment. ”

This is only viable in auctions if you’re employing a strategy that avoids superstar investments. I don’t get the draft comparison between Ichiro/Dunn & Hunter/Pence. You don’t need to go out of your way to roster Ichiro and Pujols, but it’s also not as if landing one of them offers just the AVG boost anyway.

I’ve always been a fan of the power-speed combos, but the market for big power/low average players is rife with enormous value and it shouldn’t be ignored.