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Jul 1, 2009 
Got any questions about your team? Curiosities about strategy? Comments about this website? Leave them in the comment section below…
9 Comments 
Fantasy Ball Junkie
We’ve Got Your Fix
Jul 1, 2009 9 Comments
9 Comments
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I am in a 10 team H2H and was wondering about strategies on holds. Which players are usually lined up for holds or is it random? Is it the 8th inning set up man or 7th inning guy? How do you locate the best hold men. I assume these guys will also help my era and whip as well. Are there any good websites to find hold guys? Thanks.
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Good question.
Typically, managers have defined roles for the relievers in their bullpen. The set-up 8th inning guy. The 7th inning guy. The left-handed reliever who specializes in getting out left-handed batters.
The guy who pitches in the 8th inning will usually get more holds than the guy who pitches in the 7th inning. That’s not always true, but it’s often the case. Why? Well, there are more opportunities. Sometimes, the starter will go 7 innings. Meaning that only an 8th inning reliever and a 9th inning closer will get in the game. Check box scores to see who is pitching in what innings.
Keep in mind that roles in the bullpen change all the time, depending on who is pitching best. You might see a reliever with an awesome ERA and great WHIP who doesn’t have many holds to date. Perhaps he’s only pitching as a long reliever or pitching in the 6th inning, but maybe he’s due for promotion.
There’s one great stat to keep an eye on in terms of hold accrual. That’s a stat called Leverage Index. Simply put, it measures the importance of a situation when a pitcher enters the game. You’d expect that pitchers who are being put into high-leverage situations will eventually get a lot of holds. You can find a ranking of the pitchers with the highest Leverage Index on the Fan Graphs page. Here’s a link:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=3&season=2009&month=0
(Look under the gmLI tab)
Finally, I think it’s best to chase skills before opportunity. A good reliever will eventually get his chance. A bad reliever may give you some holds, but wreck your ERA/WHIP, and eventually lose his job.
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What are your thoughts on Branyan? Can he REALLY keep this up? I have Russell the Muscle as my 3B in a 10 team, H2H, weekly points league, and I find myself just waiting for him to fall apart.
However, I have A-RAM on my IL, and I could really use some pitching. Do I dare deal A-RAM to someone to get a pitcher while they believe he’ll come back and be his usual productive self? Can I count on Branyan going forward?
3B is the only place I really have any room to deal right now.
Thanks for all you’re doing!
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Branyan has been a great story this year, right?
In some ways, he’s legit. He’s always flashed that potential. I’d expect him to continue to mash. However, with a .367 BABIP, his average is going to come down significantly.
That said, I see your strategy. You won’t find many takers for Branyan, unless someone is desperate for power. Aramis, on the other hand, probably commands interest because he’s got very good brand value.
To be honest, I don’t know what to make of A-Ram when he gets back. He could be solid. OR his shoulder injury could hamper his power, making him not much better than Scott Rolen. A-Ram is a bit of a risk at the moment.
What you should do depends on where you are in the standings. If you’re doing well, you probably can survive without A-Ram’s upside and you may want to off-load the risk in favor of some commodity like pitching to help you out. If you’re not doing so well, you probably want to stick with A-Ram to see if he can provide some sort of salvation in the 2nd half.
I think you can count on Branyan to produce, but not at the level he’s produced so far. Consider how your team will look like if Branyan slips a bit (though not off the cliff) from his current production, and if you can live with that, by all means, trade A-Ram.
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Many thanks – great response!
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Qualls isn’t pitching much lately and hasn’t pitched well when he’s gotten the chance. Is it time to drop him in favor of someone like Howell, Bailey, or Downs?
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Qualls has gotten very unlucky. He’s still a high strikeout, low walk, high groundball pitcher — which is a recipe for a fantastic ERA and WHIP. I see him as a potentially elite closer.
Biggest problem is that he’s a candidate to be traded to a team who will use him in a set-up role. Second problem is that he’s nursed some minor injuries this season. But all in all, I’m a big fan of Qualls.
On the other hand, those are three extremely good closers on your waivers. Tough picking which of the four is the best reliever to have through the end of the season. I suppose I’d stick with Qualls for the moment, but is it possible to find room for Howell, Bailey, or Downs, who will contribute good ERA/WHIP as well as saves?
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In my roto league I have a slight lead in HR, in tight race for lead in rbi, mid pack for runs and 11th place in ave and sb. A trade offer was made to me where I get Jacoby Elssbury and give Mark Reynolds. I turned it down – as Reynolds is a main power guy for me while still kicling in at least 10 more steals the rest of the way. I also just added Brett Gardner and Kaz Matsui to shore up sb. Which way do you see helping me in standings points. Keeping reynolds and finding oyher waiver wire speed or trading Reynolds for Ellsbury?
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Ellsbury for Reynolds is a fair offer, but is it one you want to take?
As I pointed out in my column on Hardball Times today, a lot depends on not just your place in the categories, but your relative position. Are you in 11th place in AVG and SB and far away from your competitors or close to them? Also, do you feel like your other players have underperformed in AVG? Can you make up significant ground in the category with better luck?
It’s hard to give you a full answer without knowing that.
I’ll say that if you’re looking to move up in SB/AVG, Ellsbury is definitely the guy you’d want. Because Gardner doesn’t play every day and because Kaz is often injured and sometimes hits low in the order, they can’t be counted on to provide much of a boost.
You say, however, you only have a slight lead in HR and the race for RBI is tight. That’s going to make trading Reynolds tough. I don’t expect Reynolds to have nearly as high a batting average in the second half, but if you’re close to punting the category, a player like Reynolds could be valuable for your team.
I think you probably made the right decision, but considering how great Reynolds has been, is there any possibility that the Ellsbury owner can sweaten the pot? If not, finding cheap speed seems to be the right course of action. Maybe you should check in with the owner of Michael Bourn or Nyjer Morgan to see if you can trade much less for what you need.
