Most people know that chasing wins can be a frustrating endeavor. The unpredictable nature of things beyond a pitcher’s control, from fielding to run support, make the task a somewhat sisyphean headache.

But in September, some fantasy teams will find themselves in a tight standings race with room for points growth in that exact category. Grabbing starters in good matchups off the waiver wire is one option, but that route is both unpredictable and hazardous to one’s ERA/WHIP health.

Here’s another option: vulture wins.

Yes, they can be almost as unpredictable. But there are a few good opportunities to exploit. Here’s three:

1. The Old Man Opportunity: Let’s face it — you grow older, you lack the stamina you once had. A good example of this is in Philadelphia where Pedro Martinez now gets the ball every fifth or sixth day. But don’t expect him to go very deep in games. This year, he’s made it past the 5th inning just once in four tries. Some of that was due to weather, but Pedro’s innings-per-game has bee on the decline for many years now.  Pedro’s insertion into the rotation pushed ol’ man Jamie Moyer into long relief. Not coincidentally, Moyer picked up wins in two of Pedro’s starts with 10 innings, 10 strikeouts, and just one earned run.
2. The Young Man Opportunity: We’re at the time of the season when young pitching prospects are nearing their innings cap on the season. A good example of this is in New York where the team has announced that Joba Chamberlain will only be going a few innings per start. In other words, it’s likely he won’t qualify for a win in any of these games. In Joba’s last start, he went just three innings before being replaced by Alfredo Aceves, who went three more and picked up the win. Since Aceves has stellar numbers on the year and has been a swing man throughout his career, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Aceves be Chamberlain’s hundcuff for the rest of the season. Other young starters on good teams who are in danger of making innings-deficient starts may include Clayton Kershaw, Tommy Hanson, Rick Porcello, Yovani Gallardo, Clay Buchholz, and Wade Davis. Rostering middle relievers when these guys are pitching could be smart.
3. The Injury Opportunity: Few pitchers emerge off of DL with long inactive time and go deep into games. One example of this could be in Atlanta where Tim Hudson has just rejoined the rotation. He’s only had one start so far so we can’t read any trends into his work, but it makes sense to believe that someone like Kenshin Kawakami could be used as a crutch (for both Hudson and Hanson). Other starters who probably wouldn’t be expected to shoulder long pitching outings in close games include John Smoltz and Ervin Santana. Don’t be surprised to see a middle reliever pick up a victory on days each is pitching.