The Market Report
The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Given that some of the MLB awards for this season have yet to be handed out, it might seem a little early to begin to analyze the fantasy baseball marketplace for next season. Indeed, we will certainly have a better idea of the market value of individual players once more mock drafts have taken place. Nevertheless, it is never too early to speculate what kinds of players will be underrated heading into next year. For a couple of reasons, speedy outfielders are one such group of players likely to be undervalued in 2010.

For one, outfield is not nearly as deep a position as it has been in years past. For instance, in standard 12-team mixed leagues that start 5 outfielders, players like Jeff Francouer and David Murphy held positive value last season. The main reason, though, that outfielders with speed will be underappreciated next season is, of course, the scarcity of the stolen base relative to the other categories. While there has been a resurgence of speed overall in the MLB the past few years, the number of home runs last season was still over 60% greater than the number of stolen bases. It’s no surprise then that speed in general is still undervalued in the fantasy marketplace.

Accordingly, even though we only have a rough idea of the market value of players for 2010 at this early stage in the offseason, we can say with some level of confidence that outfielders with speed are likely to be undervalued next year. For those reasons and others, the following players should be available at a discount from their true value.

Bobby Abreu
One can make a strong case that Abreu is the most underrated offensive player of his generation. While a player’s fantasy value certainly does not directly correlate to his true worth in real baseball, few can measure up to the remarkable consistency that Abreu has displayed through the years in fantasy. There are only two players that have been top 50 fantasy hitters for the past eleven seasons. One of them is Alex Rodriguez; the other is Bobby Abreu.

Fantasy owners should crave that kind of dependability when investing an expensive auction purchase (or an early round pick in straight drafts) on a player. I will talk more about this in a future column, but suffice it to say for now that reliability is severely underappreciated in the fantasy marketplace today.

At any rate, even though Abreu consistently puts up very good fantasy numbers, it seems like every year he is still undervalued. Despite solid across-the-board production in 2008, Abreu was drafted in just the 6th round on average in 2009. Last season, though, he put together a balanced Roto line of .293 / 15 / 103 / 96 / 30 on his way toward finishing the year as the 7th best fantasy outfielder and the 18th best hitter overall.

Even so, CBS has ranked Abreu as only the 20th best fantasy outfielder for 2010 while Brendan Roberts of ESPN has him as the 54th best hitter going into next year. What will it take for Abreu to finally gain his due respect in the fantasy marketplace? Evidently the fantasy community fears that the 35-year-old might finally collapse next season. There will certainly come a day when Bobby Abreu is no longer a fantasy asset, but I do not think that time will come by next season.

Michael Bourn
Typically a player is overvalued the season after a breakout campaign. Bourn, however, is one breakout player from last year whose market value has still not caught up to his true value. Without looking at the ESPN Player Rater for last season, where do you think Bourn ranked among fantasy outfielders? It might come as a surprise that he was actually the 8th best fantasy outfielder last year – better than Adam Lind, Jayson Werth, and Jason Bay, to name a few.

Coming off a poor 2008 season in which he hit just .229, Bourn was likely quite cheap on Auction Day in your league last year. This past season, though, he was able to hit .285 to go along with 61 stolen bases and 97 runs. The value of those 61 stolen bases cannot be overstated. After all, Bourn’s contribution to the stolen bases category was more impactful than any other player’s output in any category, aside from Jacoby Ellsbury’s 70 stolen bases. Needless to say, there are very few elite speedsters in the MLB player pool today. In fact, after Ellsbury and Carl Crawford, Bourn should be the next pure speedster taken off any draft board.

Nevertheless, CBS has ranked Bourn as just the 33rd best outfielder for 2010. Meanwhile, Brendan Roberts ranked Bourn as the 52nd best hitter for next season. While Roberts has placed Bourn closer to his true value, both sites have sold Bourn short. After all, Bourn was the 19th best hitter overall last year. Even allowing for some regression, I think it is safe to say that he is at least a top 40 hitter heading into next year.

I suspect one reason for such skepticism revolving around Bourn’s outlook in 2010 may be that his BABIP was relatively high at .367 last season. Still, it is important to keep in mind that for hitters, BABIP regresses to a player’s true talent level – not to any MLB average, as in the case of pitchers. Players with decent speed, such as Abreu and Derek Jeter, have been known to put up high hit rates on a consistent basis, and we should expect nothing different from Bourn. A major key in his skill set that suggests the spike in productivity from last year was not a mirage is the rising walk rate. Bourn placed a greater emphasis on patience, and his walk rate rose from 7% in 2008 to 10% in 2009. Should he be able to maintain such growth, he will be a fantasy stud for many years to come.

Nyger Morgan
Like Bourn, Morgan too enjoyed a breakout season in 2009. In 71 games with the Pirates, Morgan hit .271 to go along with 18 stolen bases. His season really took off, though, following a July 1st trade to the Nationals. In only 49 games with the Nationals, Morgan hit .351 with 24 stolen bases. Unfortunately, his season came to an abrupt end when he broke his hand in late August. Despite missing a month, Morgan still put up a Roto line of .307 / 3 / 39 / 74 / 42 in just 120 games. There is some sneaky value in this line; after all, Morgan finished the year as the 18th best fantasy outfielder and 46th best hitter overall.

Nevertheless, CBS has ranked Morgan as only the 45th best fantasy outfielder, and Brendan Roberts has ranked him as the 76th best hitter overall. Among the three players covered in this piece, I am most perplexed by the rankings for Morgan. He was able to finish as a top 20 outfielder despite missing a month, yet he is barely a top 50 outfielder in the CBS rankings? I think we can safely say Morgan is a top 50 hitter for next season with upside beyond that.

Morgan is unlikely to repeat his .307 AVG from last season. Still, there is a lot to like in this skill set. Morgan posted a solid 84% contact rate to go along with a decent 8% walk rate. These skills are right in line with his Minor League rates. It is his speed, though, that is most appealing. The Nationals really allowed Morgan to run on his own. The fact that he was able to steal 24 bases in less than two months with the club warrants serious attention. Even if we allow for some regression, we might be looking at another elite speedster capable of 60 stolen bases.