This week’s report looks at M. Ordonez, Atkins, Lidge, Liriano, Huff, E. Santana, and Hardy.

By Andrew Gephardt

It is no secret that the fantasy community as a whole typically puts too much weight on the previous season’s results. For this reason, we should make an effort to seek out players whose market value dips to such an extent that it is ultimately below their true value.

Last week we took a look at the players who were taken in the first round going into last season yet have fallen out of the top 12 this offseason.

Along those same lines, this week let us branch out and examine the players who were taken among the top 100 last year but have fallen out of the top 200 this offseason. Let us see if any might be severely undervalued going into next year.

Magglio Ordonez (2009 ADP – 57, 2010 ADP – 260)
Ordonez endured a rather tough campaign in 2009. He got off to a rough start, posting a slash line of .260 / .330 / .343 in the first half. In fact, things got so bad that Manager Jim Leyland actually benched him in June. In the second half, though, Ordonez did provide Mixed League fantasy value, hitting .375 / .438 / .540. The strong AVG after the All-Star break allowed him to finish the year at .310. Still, there are some warning signs that suggest we should not expect a significant rebound in 2010. For one, Ordonez was relatively lucky in the AVG category, as his BABIP ranked 13th in the American League at .345. Taking that into account, his AVG should have been closer to .280. More importantly, though, Ordonez appears to have lost his power once and for all. The days of 30 home runs are undoubtedly gone, but it might be a stretch to project even half that many out of Ordonez next year. After all, his power was just dismal last season due to a 28% flyball rate coupled with an 8% HR/FB rate. Accordingly, even though Ordonez is available beyond the 20th round this offseason, he no longer offers enough upside to merit even a late-round selection.

Garrett Atkins (2009 ADP – 69, 2010 ADP – 303)
At this point last offseason Atkins looked like a pretty solid option at third base. From 2006 to 2008 he had averaged 25 home runs and 110 RBI while hitting .305. Upon closer examination, though, he had already been trending in the wrong direction. For instance, his contact rate and HR/FB rate had decreased in consecutive seasons. Perhaps we should not have been surprised by further decline in 2009. Still, nobody could have foreseen the collapse that Atkins experienced this past season. Like Ordonez, Atkins struggled to such an extent that he lost his everyday job. Also, it was not even a tale of two halves for Atkins; his .230 / .303 / .339 first-half line was quite similar to his .217 / .318 / .348 line after the All-Star break, suggesting little reason for optimism in 2010. Simply put, 2009 was a lost year for Atkins. Looking ahead, he reportedly is not in Colorado’s plans for 2010, as he will be non-tendered later this week. In short, Atkins is no longer Mixed-League material.

Brad Lidge (2009 ADP – 75, 2010 ADP – 206)
In 2008 Lidge did everything a fantasy owner could ever ask out of a closer. He provided a solid 1.93 ERA to go along with a 1.23 WHIP and 92 strikeouts. More importantly, though, he never caused a hard night’s sleep for any fantasy owner, as he remarkably converted all 41 save opportunities. It is amazing how dramatically things can change from one year to the next in fantasy baseball, especially at the volatile closer position. Needless to say, Lidge struggled mightily this past season. His surface stats were beyond brutal: 0 wins, 8 losses, a 7.21 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP, and 11 blown saves. At times Manager Charlie Manuel chose to go with Ryan Madson to finish games; however, it is clear that overall Manuel still prefers Lidge to Madson in the closing role. Skills should nearly always outweigh roles in fantasy baseball. This might be one situation, though, in which the player’s role deserves some consideration. After all, Lidge would have to perform extremely poorly again next year to lose his job as closer, given Manuel’s steadfastness. It is worth pointing out that Lidge had an xFIP of 4.73 – still very bad but not nearly as dreadful as his 7.21 ERA. Also, let us keep in mind that we are only working with a sample size of fewer than 60 innings last season; this is still a pitcher with a career ERA of 3.56. Taking all of this into account, call me crazy, but Lidge does not look like a bad option based on his current average draft position in the 18th round. I typically wait on closers, and at that stage in the draft you could do worse than Lidge, who still offers the upside of an elite closer.

Francisco Liriano (2009 ADP – 79, 2010 ADP – 290)
On the road back from Tommy John surgery in late 2006, Liriano displayed strong skills down the stretch in 2008. From August to September that season, he had 60 strikeouts compared to 19 walks in just over 65 innings. As a result, fantasy owners had high hopes for Liriano in 2009. This past season, though, he never seemed to get things going. He finished the year with a miserable Roto line of 5 wins, a 5.80 ERA, a 1.55 WHIP, and 122 strikeouts. One positive takeaway is that he still maintained a solid strikeout rate at 8.03. Also, while his ERA was 5.80, it is worth noting that his xFIP was a run lower at 4.78. In general, I try to avoid pitchers like Liriano with serious control problems in order to maintain a solid WHIP. At the same time, Liriano is currently being taken in the 25th round, essentially as a bench player. I have no problem with anyone taking a gamble on him that late due to the fact that a fantasy owner can simply stash him on the bench. Once again, it is all about upside in the late rounds, and Liriano is only a year removed from displaying elite skills.

Aubrey Huff (2009 ADP – 86, 2010 ADP – undrafted)
Talk about a stock plummeting. Here is your answer to the question of which player was taken among the top 100 last season yet is currently going undrafted this offseason. Coming off a very strong 2008 campaign, the fantasy community drafted Huff last season expecting a very productive season from a player with useful third base eligibility. Not only is the third base eligibility gone now, but apparently so too is that productivity. This past season Huff’s skills dropped substantially from those in 2008. In particular, his power really declined, as his HR/FB rate went from 14.9% to 9.1%. It would be unwise to expect even 20 home runs from Huff in 2010. While he does have a track record of strong contact rates, he is also unlikely to provide value in the AVG category as long as he continues to hit the ball with little authority. It is looking more and more like 2008 was a last hurrah for Huff. There are even playing time concerns, as Manager Jim Leyland might not be the only one who looks at Huff as a platoon player as he enters free agency. Overall then, we likely witnessed the Mixed League fantasy demise of Aubrey Huff this past season.

Ervin Santana (2009 ADP – 92, 2010 ADP – 222)
The other Santana was nothing short of fantastic in 2008. He displayed truly stellar skills with a strikeout rate of 8.79 in tandem with a walk rate of 1.93. Last offseason, Santana may have actually been undervalued, as he looked like an ace available at a reasonable price in the eighth round. Unfortunately, he suffered an elbow injury in the spring and was unable to start his season until May. The skills took a dramatic step backward from 2008, as his strikeout rate dipped to 6.89 while his walk rate jumped to 3.03. Still, we should keep in mind that Santana will be just 27 next season. Like Liriano, the market value has fallen so much so that there is little risk in taking Santana in round 19, his current average draft position. I would prefer to see some decent outings in Spring Training before investing in him for next season, but this is another high variance commodity worth considering in the late rounds.

JJ Hardy (2009 ADP – 99, 2010 ADP – 240)
A year ago Hardy looked like one of the top options for power at shortstop. After all, he had averaged 25 home runs and 77 RBI while hitting .281 the past couple seasons. Like the others who have fallen from the top 100 to outside the top 200 within a year, 2009 was a lost season for Hardy. He finished the season with a terrible Roto line of .229 / 11 / 47 / 53 / 0. In fact, his year was so dreadful that he was actually sent to the Minors in August. In order to make room for Alcides Escobar, the Brewers traded Hardy to the Twins last month. The optimist would say that all Hardy might need is a change of scenery. Like Santana, Hardy too will be just 27 on Opening Day next season, so it is probably premature to declare his demise from fantasy relevance. Ideally, we would like to end up with a reliable option at the thin position that is shortstop in 2010. In the unpredictable world of a fantasy draft, though, things certainly do not always go according to plan. In light of that, at the very least it is a good idea to be mindful of players like Hardy, as there are few middle infielders available in the 20th round that offer as much upside as he does.