Weighing the evidence on what to expect from Mauer, Ichiro, and Votto in 2010.

By David Edward Burke

Proposition:  Joe Mauer is the American League’s Newest Strongman

Last season Joe Mauer went from being one of the best catchers in fantasy baseball to one of the best hitters in fantasy baseball.  He reached career highs in batting average, hits, home runs, rbis, and finished 9th among hitters in ESPN’s Player Rater.  The biggest reason for Mauer’s increased value was by far the 28 home runs he clubbed, more that doubling his previous career high.  The question on many fantasy owners minds heading into 2010 drafts will be quite simply, is Mauer’s power for real?  Is he going to string together years like Mike Piazza did in his prime?  Or were those 28 home runs a peak Mauer won’t reach again?

Evidence for the Proposition: Mauer is only 26, an age when players legitimately improve their skills and make strides in the power department.  Mauer is a solid 6’5 and 225 pounds, meaning he has the body of a basher and it may have just taken him a few seasons for him to put the full force of that body behind his swing.  Mauer hit 28 long balls while missing the entire month of April.  With a clean bill of health and his fabled age 27 season on the horizon, Mauer looks like a good bet to maintain the gains he saw in 2009.

Evidence Against the Proposition: What’s most remarkable about Mauer’s home run total is that he didn’t hit very many fly balls to reach it.  His fly ball rate is consistently below 30 percent, which raises a major red flag, not because most home run hitters hit fly balls at a higher rate than Mauer, but because all home run hitters hit fly balls at a higher rate.  In 2008, 50 different players hit 25 or more home runs.  Of those 50 players, none had a fly ball rate of less than 30 percent.  In 2009, 55 different players hit 25 or more home runs.  Of those 55 players, only one had a fly ball rate of less than 30 percent—our friend Joe Mauer.

Mauer’s near exponential increase in his HR/FB rate from previous seasons to 2009 raises another red flag.  In 2007 and 2008, Mauer’s HR/FB rates were 7.2 and 6.5 percent.  In 2009 those rates approximately tripled to 20.4 percent, putting Mauer in the company of perennial bashers like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Carlos Pena, and Ryan Howard.  Mauer may have gotten a taste of the 20 percent club in 2009, but chances are he won’t be returning in 2010.

The Verdict: Joe Mauer’s 2009 power breakout came at a time in his career when such improvement might be expected.  However, looking behind the numbers we can see that a good chunk of Mauer’s 28 home runs came from what it likely an unsustainable HR/FB rate of over 20 percent.  Mauer will still be worth an early round draft pick or a princely sum at an auction in 2010, but owners expecting a repeat performance of 2009 will be disappointed.

The Proposition:  The Ageless Ichiro Suzuki

Despite turning 30 in 2003, Ichiro Suzuki has been regarded as fantasy baseball’s old faithful for the past few years.  Owners could essentially pencil in a batting average above 300, 100 runs scored, and around 35 stolen bases.  2009 appeared to be more business as usual for Ichiro.  He missed 16 games, which lowered his runs scored and stolen base output, but he still managed to post a 352 average.  Will 2010 be another successful ho-hum season?

Evidence for the Proposition: Although Ichiro does not have age on his side he does have the right kind of skills on his side.  Bill James has noted that players with “old player skills” such as the ability to hit for power and draw walks decline more rapidly than other players.  Ichiro still possesses what can be considered “young player skills” such as the ability to hit for a high average and steal bases.  In addition, Ichiro has been a model of good health throughout his career, with 2009 marking the only season in which missed more than five times.  Ichiro’s high 352 average last year also bodes well for 2010 because Ichiro’s ability to hit for a high average is the basis of his offensive value.  The more Ichiro gets on base, the more bases he steals and runs he scores.  Even if Ichiro’s average drops by 30 points in 2010 he’ll still be on base enough to steal 30 bases and score 100 runs.

Evidence Against the Proposition: Ichiro’s rotisserie numbers have been consistent over the past five years but his peripheral numbers show unequivocal signs of decline.  First, Ichiro’s line drive rate has steadily decreased each of the last five seasons, from 22.1 percent in 2005 down to the current 18.2 percent in 2009.  Second, Ichiro’s batting eye has gotten less sharp.  The percent of pitches outside the strike zone Ichiro has hacked at has increased each of the last four years, from 24.8 percent in 2006, to a whopping 32.1 percent last year.  Ichiro’s contract rate with pitches in the strike zone also dropped from what had been a relatively steady rate of around 94 percent, down to 92.2 percent.  Ichiro is essentially swinging at more bad pitches and missing more good pitches than ever before. With average luck instead of good or great luck in 2009, Ichiro’s average would have been a good 25 points lower and his stolen bases and runs scored would have decreased accordingly.

The Verdict: Ichiro Suzuki has and probably will continue to age more gracefully than most players in their mid-thirties.  However, don’t be fooled into thinking that a decline, and possibly a steep decline is not on the horizon.  By swinging at more bad pitches and hitting fewer line drives than ever before, Ichiro’s all important batting average may dip below 300 sooner than most owners think.

The Proposition:  Joey Votto is a Top-25 Fantasy Pick

After 65 qualifying drafts at Mock Draft Central, Joey Votto is the 25th player taken off the board, consistently landing somewhere between 22nd and 32nd.  Votto is being drafted ahead of better known and consistently superior producers such as Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, Matt Holliday, and Adrian Gonzalez.  Is this a case of perceptive owners honing in on an undervalued commodity or fools overpaying for a player who has never even driven in 85 runs?

Evidence for the Proposition: Joey Votto is undoubtedly a player with untapped potential.  He hit 25 home runs in only 131 games last season and has not batted under 290 at any level since 2006.  Votto also may be a candidate for surprising stolen bases.  Although Votto only swiped four bags in 2009 he averaged over 20 per season in AA and AAA.  Lastly, 2010 will be Votto’s age 27 season.  If he can stay on the diamond, 2010 may be the year that everything comes together and Votto vaults into fantasy stardom.

Evidence Against the Proposition: Joey Votto?  Seriously?  The guy has never hit more than 25 home runs in a season at any level.  He missed more than 30 games in 2009 and his 322 average was built on an unsustainable BABIP of 373.  Votto is also not exactly surrounded by a crack squad of fearsome bats.  The likes of Paul Janish, Laynce Nix, and the often injured Scott Rolen are not the best candidates to help Votto boost his run and rbi totals.

The Verdict: Votto may finish 2010 as a top 25 fantasy player but smart owners won’t pay that price in their draft.  Why draft a player in the third round who will need unprecedented health, power, or speed to justify his selection over more consistent producers like Holliday and Pedroia?  Every player can be a good fantasy draft pick if chosen at the right spot, but the third round is not the right spot for Joey Votto.