From safe and reliable like Pujols to risky and rewarding like Mauer

By Andrew Gephardt

The most important decision that we make on Draft Day is also the first decision, specifically our first-round selection. A couple of weeks ago we analyzed the players who had fallen out of the first round from last year to see if any may have slipped too far in drafts this off-season. This week, we’ll see which players are worthy of the first round.

Let’s take another look at the typical first round based on current Mock Draft Central data:
1. Albert Pujols
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Alex Rodriguez
4. Chase Utley
5. Ryan Braun
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Matt Kemp
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Prince Fielder
10. Ryan Howard
11. Evan Longoria
12. Tim Lincecum

Before analyzing which players are truly worthy of the top 12, let’s take a minute to discuss how we should approach the first round in a straight draft. Thinking about fantasy baseball as a whole, we like to think we have a good idea as to how the season will play out.

In reality, though, even the best projection systems are just 70% accurate. This makes sense because a projection, after all, is the most probable outcome from a range of possibilities. For instance, a projection system must take into account that a given player might suffer a season-ending injury in the first month and then provide no production thereafter. Accordingly, projections should be conservative by nature.

How does this relate to our approach to the first round? If we only know so much as to how a particular player will perform, we should place greater value on the production that a player is highly likely to attain, as opposed to the production that a player has the potential to attain. Simply put, floor is more important than ceiling. After all, in the first round we’re making a steep investment in a particular player. We need that one player to provide solid production to give us a fair chance to be competitive. Sure, first-round busts can be overcome, but they certainly put fantasy owners in a tough spot.

In the first round of a straight draft then, we should pick conservatively. We must select a player with a stable skill set who has displayed solid consistency the past few seasons. We need a player whose production we can take to the bank. This one player will begin to form the foundation of our roster. In short, it’s all about reliability in the first round.

So which players fit that description this offseason? I’ve grouped my current top 12 into several tiers based on varying levels of risk, while also taking into account positional scarcity. Let’s analyze each tier as I explain how I’ll approach the first round based on various draft positions.

Tier One: The Greatest Right-Handed Hitter of All-Time
1. Albert Pujols
As far as I’m concerned, the first pick for 2010 is a no-brainer. Pujols is not only the most highly skilled player in the MLB player pool, but he’s also the most reliable one. He’s the only player in MLB history to hit at least .300 with at least 30 home runs and at least 100 RBI in each of his first nine seasons. Talk about money in the bank. We could spend all day talking about the great Albert Pujols. From a fantasy perspective, though, the point is that anyone who passes on Pujols with the first pick is making a mistake. This is why he deserves his own tier. Enjoy Albert Pujols, fantasy owners; we’re unlikely to ever see a better hitter in our lives.

Tier Two: Stable Skill Sets at Relatively Thin Positions
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Chase Utley
I’m hoping for one of the first three picks in my drafts for 2010. I feel that building a roster around one of Pujols, Ramirez, or Utley gives a team a clear head start after Round One. With Pujols, this is due to otherworldly production; with Ramirez and Utley, this is due to still excellent production at thin positions. According to the RotoTimes Player Rater, Hanley has been precisely the second-best player in each of the past three seasons. When one couples this with the fact that shortstop is very thin going into 2010, it’s no surprise that Ramirez is being taken second overall in the vast majority of drafts.

That brings us to Utley. You might have noticed that here is the first point at which my current top 12 differs from the Mock Draft Central data. Once again, we should target stable skill sets in the first round; while A-Rod has more upside, the remarkable consistency that Utley has displayed the past five seasons puts him into this tier for me. After all, he’s been a top 25 hitter every year since 2005; only Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, and Ichiro can also make that claim. In fact, upon closer examination, I actually have little issue with anyone taking Utley second overall.  A good deal of Hanley’s value last season was tied to his .342 AVG. However, his BABIP tied for second-highest in the game at .384; he really should have hit closer to .300. I still have Hanley slightly above Utley, though, because there are fewer solid options at shortstop than at second base next year.

Tier Three: Highly Skilled Players with #1 Upside
4. Alex Rodriguez
5. Ryan Braun
6. Matt Kemp
It wouldn’t really surprise me if any of these fantasy beasts finished next season as the top player overall. All possess that kind of upside. This trio is similar in other ways as well. All have displayed great skills in both power and speed. At the same time, none of them typically post excellent contact rates, so there is at least some downside in the AVG category. Also, compared to the players in Tier One and Tier Two, the members of Tier 3 have more variability in the range of production that they might provide next season. To be honest, I really would rather not end up with picks 4, 5, or 6 in my drafts next year (assuming Utley is taken third). Don’t get me wrong; all of these guys are awesome. In the first round, though, we should really play it safe, and the players of Tier One and Tier Two have virtually no risk. If I had to take someone from this group, A-Rod would be my choice, if for no other reason than the fact that the third base position is actually scarce now. With a full year in the new Yankee Stadium, which boosted home runs more so than any other park this past season, there certainly exists the possibility for A-Rod to put up a monstrous fantasy campaign.

Moving onto Braun, from a results perspective few have been as dependable the past few years; after all, he’s been a top 20 hitter every year since his Rookie season in 2007. However, the skills behind those results have been just a tad too inconsistent for my liking.

Finally, Matt Kemp just keeps getting better; he’s shown skills growth every year of his career thus far. I have no doubt that he’ll be an excellent fantasy player next season; however, the wide variance in the range of seasons he could have does leave some cause for concern. In all actuality, we still don’t really know what kind of player we have in Kemp. It may sound like I’m nitpicking with these members of Tier 3; when trying to rank one elite player next to another, though, even minor discrepancies in risk can make the difference. That being said, I’d still take any of them over the next group of players who are a tad safer; their elite skills justify the minimal risk.

Tier Four: Stable Skill Sets at Relatively Deep Positions
7. Mark Teixeira
8. Miguel Cabrera
9. Carl Crawford
10. Matt Holliday
If I don’t end up with one of the top three picks, I’d be content selecting from this part of the first round. Teixeira and Cabrera are as safe as they come: each offers a stable skill set to go along with a track record of good health. I’d prefer not to build my team around a first basemen, given that the position is incredibly deep next year. Still, there’s something to be said for the reliability that these elite sluggers provide; you can be quite confident that neither of them will be busts.

Next, we have the first player in my rankings currently not being taken in the first round, Carl Crawford. Outside of an injury-riddled 2008, Crawford has been very consistent through the years. That is one reason I’d take him over other similarly valued players. The other reason is that there are many first basemen going around this point in the draft, despite the fact that it’s clearly the deepest position. I’d rather grab the unique skill set of Crawford and then take a power hitter in the second round to have a superb balance of power and speed after two rounds.

Based on the current Mock Draft Central data, it seems unlikely that Prince Fielder or Ryan Howard will be available in the second round, but I’m not worried. That’s due to the fact that our next player, Matt Holliday, should be available then. I’m not really sure why, but Holliday is currently being taken just 28th overall; this looks like tremendous value to me. From 2006 to 2008 he was a top ten fantasy hitter. Even after leaving hitter-friendly Coors Field, he was still the 16th best hitter this past season. Accordingly, if I end up with a pick at the back end of the first round, I’ll target Crawford and Holliday.

Tier Five: Fantasy Beasts for Risk-Takers
11. Tim Lincecum
12. Joe Mauer
Let me preface this by saying that I don’t think I could take either of these players in the first round of a redraft league. As I discussed a few weeks ago, I recommend waiting on starting pitching next year. Lincecum certainly is an elite commodity; he’s nearly the pitching equivalent of Pujols. Still, I feel the opportunity cost of passing on hitters this early does not justify his selection. Mauer had a truly special fantasy season in 2009; however, I think it’s a bit short-sighted to rank Mauer much higher than this. Let’s keep in mind that this is a player who’s missed a month of play in two of the past three seasons. Sure, he’s a catcher so he should get the occasional day off, but he’s never played more than 146 games. You’re asking a lot of him if you draft him at this stage in the draft. I group him here with Lincecum in that in my estimation these are the next-best available talents after the players already covered, but they do come with a fair amount of risk. For the bold among you, these are the players to target; they’re both far and away the top options at their respective positions. For me, though, a selection of either of these players in the first round takes on an unnecessary level of risk when there are so many capable alternatives.

Other Players Currently Going in the First Round
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard
Evan Longoria
I don’t really have too much of an issue with Fielder or Howard being taken in the first round. Fielder has been an elite fantasy performer in two of the past three seasons; his skills have just been a little erratic for my taste. Howard has actually been very consistent in terms of results, finishing as a top 25 hitter in each of the past four seasons. I just see a little too much risk in building around a player who struggles to make contact even 70% of the time. There’s significant AVG downside here; it wouldn’t surprise me to see Howard hit below .250 one of these years. The other problem with building around Fielder or Howard, of course, is that they are first basemen. If you’re going to take a first basemen in Round One, he better be reliable, and I just don’t consider this pair to be as safe as Teixeira and Cabrera. Like I said, though, I don’t think either is a terrible option in the first round.

On the other hand, I certainly have a problem with Evan Longoria going in the first round. What exactly has he done to warrant a selection that early? In his Rookie campaign in 2008, he was the 80th best fantasy hitter; last season he finished as the 33rd best hitter. Is there really a significant difference between Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman, currently being taken 47th overall? In fact, you can expect nearly the same production from Aramis Ramirez in the sixth round. It’s clear then that fantasy owners currently drafting Longoria in the first round are doing so based on his potential rather than his likely production, a very risky proposition.