A fantasy pundit comes clean…

This is the time of year that many pundits like to evaluate what we’re likely to see from baseball players next season.

Talent evaluation certainly plays a factor in the successes and failure of fantasy competitors, but often people miss the competitive edge that’s staring them in the face. I’m referring to a player’s value as contextualized by a fantasy league’s scoring format.

Let’s use Adam Dunn as an example.

Dunn has been one of the most consistent ballplayers in all of baseball over the last five years. His home run totals are astonishingly stable (40, 40, 40, 40, 38). His RBI totals always seem to end up at about the same spot (102, 101, 92, 106, 100, 105). And finally, because he takes a lot of pitches, Dunn will always contribute a high number of walks as well as a great number of strikeouts.

On this website (and others), most fantasy pundits will evaluate Adam Dunn in the standard five category formats (HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG). According to our calculations, Dunn was the 52nd most valuable batter in 2009.

But by “standard,” we only mean the scoring format that’s most popular. For example, according to data by CBSSports, only 51 percent of leagues use batting average as a category. Some leagues use point systems. Other leagues replace batting average with On-Base Percentage or OPS.

How drastically does Dunn’s value change in those formats?

In a league that counts OBP instead of AVG, Dunn moves up from the 52nd most valuable player in 2009 to the 27th most valuable player.

I play in leagues that use other scoring formats.

For instance, I’m in a league that counts six batting categories — the sixth being strikeouts. In that league, Dunn ranked as the 105th most valuable batter last year.

I also play in a league that counts eight batting categories — HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG, H, OBP, SLG. In that league, Dunn ranked as the 57th most valuable batter last year.

In other words, same player, but widely different values.

The value fluctuation doesn’t stop there. Dunn has eligibility as both an outfielder and a first-baseman (and in leagues that segregate outfield spots, he’s eligible at left-field and right-field). Some leagues play five outfielders. Other leagues play three outfielders. Whether or not your league has unlimited free agency or uses the FAAB process has an impact.  Different roster allowances have an effect on a player’s value.

As shocking as it might be to hear, whether or not your league counts holds can impact the fantasy value of a player like Adam Dunn. Yes, pitching categories influence a batter’s fantasy value. (I’ll prove it in a future column.)

Many extremely smart people involved in fantasy competitions will bang their heads against a wall over sabermetric stats like BABIP and FIP, trying to divine a player’s expected future production. Truth is, as much as these stats may point to probabilities and improbabilities, there will always be a great degree of uncertainty in a future untrodden. On the other hand, there are advantages to be gained from those players who have shown us extreme stability over the years, but may have value that’s beholden to context. This especially reigns true when the most popular fantasy pundits of the day focus on satisfying those who play in the most popular scoring formats of the day with advice generalized for all, but not necessary appropriate for you and your league-mates.

So what’s the easiest way to dominate your 2010 fantasy baseball league?

Instead of focusing on what you don’t know, try figuring out what you already know about your league or what’s hidden in the incentive structure of your league — and use that as a grounding point towards making evaluations. There’s wisdom in crowds, of course. But crowds don’t participate in your league. You do. And if you can come to grips with your league’s value structure, your league-mates will be listening to the masses while you’ve figured out undervalued commodities and customized an advantage.