This week, we focus on Soto, Napoli, and Posada. The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

OK, now it’s time to start getting serious. Over the next couple months we’ll be taking a weekly look at each position in order to determine which players look undervalued and which ones seem overvalued going into next season. This week we’ll begin by looking at the catcher position.

There are more solid options at catcher for 2010 than in years past. Taking a look at the Mock Draft Central ADP data, we can break down the market values for the top catchers into the following tiers:
1. Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez, and Brian McCann
2. Matt Wieters, Jorge Posada, Kurt Suzuki, and Russell Martin
3. Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Bengie Molina, Chris Iannetta, and Mike Napoli

Now that we have an idea as to how the fantasy community values the top catchers, let’s see which ones look misvalued. I’ve provided the projections from a few major projection systems. It’s worth noting that Bill James is generally bold while CHONE is relatively conservative, and BaseballHQ is typically somewhere in the middle.

Undervalued
Geovany Soto (ADP 145)
BaseballHQ .268 / 64 / 21 / 80 / 0
Bill James .273 / 58 / 20 / 79 / 1
CHONE .265 / 47 / 16 / 62 / 0
Soto played through pain much of this past season, ultimately missing a significant amount of time due a strained left oblique. A full offseason, however, should be more than enough time for him to get healthy. Make no mistake about it: 2009 was a lost year for Soto. Rather than analyzing the poor skills that he displayed this past season, though, let’s keep in mind that he’s only a year removed from a stellar Rookie of the Year campaign in 2008. It’s worth mentioning that Soto witnessed a dramatic twist of fate in the batted ball department, as his BABIP fell from .337 in 2008 to .251 in 2009. While he may not fully rebound to 2008 levels, he doesn’t need to do so to justify his current ADP. Given that he’s currently going in Round 13, his value has slipped too far in my estimation.

Mike Napoli (ADP 173)
BaseballHQ .261 / 61 / 22 / 60 / 4
Bill James .266 / 68 / 24 / 69 / 5
CHONE .256 / 54 / 19 / 53 / 4
Napoli was a very popular sleeper last year and for good reason. He was the best fantasy catcher in 2008 on a per-game basis; all that he needed was more playing time. This past season Napoli did receive significantly more at-bats; however, one could argue that Manager Mike Scoscia still continues to give Jeff Mathis and his career .263 wOBA too many plate appearances. Even so, Napoli has been a top-8 fantasy catcher in each of the past two seasons yet is currently being drafted just twelfth at his position on average. While he doesn’t help in AVG, Napoli provides excellent power and even some speed to boot, a skill rarely found at his position. Given that Soto and Napoli are lasting until the middle rounds in mock drafts then, I’d recommend passing on the elite catchers and grabbing this skilled duo later.

Overvalued
Jorge Posada (ADP 118)
BaseballHQ .276 / 48 / 15 / 63 / 1
Bill James .276 / 59 / 18 / 59 / 1
CHONE .251 / 50 / 16 / 63 / 1
It pains me to write this because from a real baseball perspective, Posada is one of the most underappreciated players of his generation. Still, a 38-year old catcher is seldom a good investment. Posada only had a brief stint on the DL this past season but spent much of 2008 on the shelf. From a skills perspective, Posada has actually aged very well, especially for a catcher. More so than anything else, I just find it highly improbable that Posada will make through another season in good health. Pass on Posada and grab similar skills from Soto or Miguel Montero, both of whom are a full decade younger. Keep in mind that a bust at catcher is particularly damaging, as a replacement-level backstop typically offers next to nothing. At this position even more so than others then, risk aversion is paramount.