This week, we focus on D. Lee, A. Gonzalez, and J. Loney. The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

A couple of weeks ago we began the process of analyzing the market value of each position in order to see which players are misvalued going into next season. Last time we looked at the fantasy value of catchers in 2010; this week we move onto first basemen.

It’s no secret that the first base position is incredibly deep going into 2010. Taking a look at the Mock Draft Central ADP data, we can break down the market values for the top first basemen into the following tiers:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder, and Ryan Howard
3. Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, and Kevin Youkilis
4. Justin Morneau, Lance Berkman, Adam Dunn, and Kendry Morales
5. Carlos Pena, Billy Butler, and Derrek Lee

Now that we know how the top first basemen are rated in the fantasy marketplace, let’s see which ones look misvalued.

Undervalued
Derrek Lee (ADP 92)
BaseballHQ .297 / 93 / 28 / 101 / 1
Bill James .291 / 94 / 30 / 98 / 5
CHONE .281 / 78 / 24 / 82 / 3
First of all, I’d like to point out that it’s not an easy task to find a truly undervalued first basemen. The fantasy community as a whole fails to fully appreciate replacement level theory. As a result, every year first basemen as a group are quite overvalued. Our goal at the first base position then should just be to return fair value. Based on his current ADP, Lee provides one such option. The problem with Lee the past few seasons has been inconsistency. After a Pujols-like 2005 campaign, he failed to hit even 25 home runs in each of the next three seasons. Then, last year he recaptured that excellent power from the past on his way toward posting a Roto line of .306 / 91 / 35 / 111 / 1, good for 7th best among first basemen. The baseline level of expected production for Lee in 2010 would be something along the lines of his 2008 season, in which he was 13th best at his position; nevertheless, he’s being taken just 15th among first basemen. Accordingly, Lee is currently available at a price tag reflective of his floor, opening the door for a good deal of profit if he can even come close to repeating last year’s numbers.

James Loney (ADP 245)
BaseballHQ .290 / 70 / 16 / 87 / 6
Bill James .294 / 64 / 13 / 78 / 5
CHONE .290 / 66 / 13 / 83 / 5
Loney is nothing special at the first base position, particularly in terms of power. Still, I find it rather confusing that his stock has plummeted this offseason in mock drafts, as he’s readily available beyond the 20th round. Chalk this one up to the fact that AVG is the most overlooked offensive category in fantasy baseball. Case in point, Carlos Pena actually tripled Loney’s home run total last season, 39 to 13. Even so, with his .227 AVG Pena was only marginally more valuable than was Loney because AVG is the one offensive category in which a player can go beyond providing no contribution to outright hurting a team. Loney consistently helps out a little bit in each category, and the sum of the parts holds decent value. Adam LaRoche (ADP 252) looks like another underappreciated first basemen; the reason I prefer Loney, though, is there still may be some upside here in the power department. Let’s keep in mind that hitters sometimes take a few years to develop power at the Major League level; it wouldn’t surprise me to see Loney make the jump to 25 home runs in 2010. Overall then, based on his current ADP, all Loney has to do to return fair value is to repeat what he’s done the past three seasons; beyond that, though, there remains considerable upside.

Overvalued
Adrian Gonzalez (ADP 30)
BaseballHQ .280 / 91 / 35 / 101 / 0
Bill James .279 / 97 / 39 / 109 / 1
CHONE .276 / 89 / 33 / 97 / 0
Let me preface this by saying that my opinion of Gonzalez might change if he’s in the middle of a potent Red Sox lineup by Opening Day. Until then, however, he remains one of the most overrated players in fantasy baseball. Adrian Gonzalez currently has an ADP of 30th overall; unfortunately, Gonzalez is simply not a top-30 fantasy player. After all, he’s yet to finish as a top-50 player in his career. Sure, he connected for 40 home runs last season; he still finished just 75th on the ESPN Player Rater. This looks like a case in which the fantasy community has mistaken a player’s worth in real baseball for that in fantasy baseball. In real baseball Gonzalez provides everything a GM could ask of a first basemen: he gets on base, he hits power for power, and he fields his position very well. In the world of fantasy, however, a player with absolutely no speed who provides little contribution to the AVG category is no elite commodity. It’s also worth mentioning that pitchers really started to pitch around Gonzalez last season; he jumped from 74 walks in 2008 to 119 in 2009. When one couples this with the fact that Petco Park depresses home runs more so than any other stadium in the National League, I wouldn’t count on 40 home runs again in 2010. In short, pass on Adrian Gonzalez in the third round and grab a player at a more scarce position, like Brandon Phillips or Dustin Pedroia.