This week, we focus on Cano, Prado, and Hill. The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

The second base position going into next season is deeper than in years past. We’ve yet to discuss third basemen, but one could make a strong case that there is more fantasy talent available at second base now than at third base, a stark contrast from just a few years ago when third base was absolutely loaded. Let’s again use Mock Draft Central data to break down the market values for second basemen into the following tiers:

1. Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler
2. Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Brian Roberts
3. Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist
4. Dan Uggla, Jose Lopez, and Howie Kendrick
5. Orlando Hudson and Rickie Weeks

Based on this current ADP data, let’s see which second basemen are misvalued.

Undervalued
Robinson Cano (ADP 46)
Bill James .309 / 89 / 20 / 87 / 4
CHONE .304 / 81 / 20 / 85 / 3
It’s difficult to find a good bargain early on in a straight draft. It’s not that Cano is severely undervalued; however, in my estimation after Utley there’s a clear tier of five second basemen of roughly equal value: Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Roberts, and Cano. The fact that Cano is currently being taken last among this group makes him a worthy investment. Last year he was the third best fantasy second basemen and ranked 40th overall, and the underlying skills supported the results. Contact rate is one of the most stable skills for a player through the years. Given that Cano has posted contact rates greater than 85% in each of his five seasons then, a fantasy owner can count on another strong AVG from the Yankees second basemen next season. In terms of power, Cano isn’t exceptional in that department; however, park factors continue to be underappreciated among the fantasy community, and Cano is in the perfect situation in the new Yankee Stadium. It’s also worth noting that he only put up a slash line of .204 / .250 / .327 in 129 at-bats with runners in scoring position. Accordingly, he cost himself a fair amount of RBI by struggling in such situations. Overall then, I’d count on a virtual repeat of 2009 with the chance to approach 100 RBI.

Martin Prado (ADP 299)
Bill James .303 / 60 / 7 / 47 / 2
CHONE .296 / 55 / 8 / 47 / 2
Kelly Johnson lost his job as Atlanta’s second basemen last season due to struggles on the field as well as tendinitis in his right wrist in July. Prado took over and performed so well that Manager Bobby Cox had no choice but to make him the everyday second basemen. In just 450 at-bats Prado finished with a Roto line of .307 / 64 / 11 / 49 / 1. Like Cano, Prado too has consistently posted excellent contact rates over the course of his professional career to go along with moderate power. Once again, players who are able to put the ball in play at such a high rate like Carlos Lee and Dustin Pedroia are typically very consistent from season to season. Indeed, that .300 AVG is completely legitimate. Don’t get me wrong, though; I wouldn’t want Prado as my starting second basemen on any fantasy roster. However, he’s currently being taken as a mere bench player even though he projects as a solid middle infield option. It’s worth mentioning that he’s also eligible at both corner infield positions, which certainly provides additional value in leagues that allow daily lineup changes. As such, this is precisely the type of bench player worth targeting in the late rounds for added depth in deep mixed leagues.

Overvalued
Aaron Hill (ADP 49)
Bill James .283 / 78 / 20 / 76 / 5
CHONE .280 / 77 / 21 / 75 / 4
Hill’s good fortune in the power department last season has been well documented. Here are his home run per flyball rates the past five seasons: 2.6%, 3.6%, 8.6%, 2.4%, and then 14.9% last season. Maybe 2009 was an exceptional growth season for Hill, but one of those figures is certainly unlike the others. In all likelihood, his home run total will dramatically decline this season. HitTracker is one of the best tools that we have today to help predict changes in home run totals. Taking a look at the Golden Sledgehammer list, here are some players with similar average home run distances as that of Hill: Chase Utley, Kevin Youkilis, Ken Griffey, Ben Zobrist, Jose Lopez, and Derek Jeter. Only Utley was also able to hit at least 30 home runs last year. While Utley plays in Citizens Bank Park, which has ranked as a very good stadium for home runs nearly every year since it opened in 2004, Hill plays in a more neutral environment in the Rogers Centre. The simple fact is that Hill doesn’t hit the ball far enough on a consistent basis to expect 30 home runs again. He’s still a decent option at second base; unfortunately, he’s currently being drafted as a very good one. In short, I much prefer Cano to Hill even though they have very similar average draft positions.

Previously: First Baseman

Previously: Catchers