The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

A key trend to keep in mind heading into next season is that the third base position suddenly is relatively thin on talent. Just three years ago, this was arguably the deepest position in fantasy baseball. With elite sluggers Ryan Braun and Miguel Cabrera moving to different positions and aging veterans Chipper Jones and Mike Lowell nearing the end of their careers, however, third base no longer offers as many solid options. As usual, let’s use Mock Draft Central data to group the market values for the top third basemen into tiers:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Mark Reynolds
3. Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, and Pablo Sandoval
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Michael Young, and Gordon Beckham
5. Chipper Jones and Ian Stewart

Based on this current ADP data, let’s try to find some undervalued third basemen.

Undervalued

Aramis Ramirez (ADP 64)

Bill James .292 / 76 / 26 / 76 / 2

CHONE .289 / 67 / 22 / 84 / 1

In 2009 Aramis Ramirez missed a good portion of the season due to a dislocated left shoulder.

Indeed, injuries have been a relatively common occurrence for him the past several seasons, as he also missed time due to a strained left quadriceps in 2005 and then tendinitis in his left knee in 2007.

Accordingly, there’s certainly some inherent risk here. Nevertheless, Ramirez has been an underrated fantasy player for much of his career. He derives much of his value from a rare ability to put the ball in play at high rate yet also hit the ball with authority on a consistent basis. In fact, since Opening Day 2004 among those with at least 150 home runs, Ramirez joins Albert Pujols and Vladimir Guerrero as the only players with fewer than 400 strikeouts.

In the straight draft format I typically make a concerted effort to build a solid foundation of power sources that don’t provide damage to the AVG category. Pujols, of course, is the cream of the crop in this regard. If there’s such a thing as a poor man’s Pujols, Ramirez would be it. There just aren’t that many players with a similar combination of power and contact skills. Once again, he’s a slightly risky play based on his recent injury history; however, his stock has fallen too low this offseason. Overall then, if I miss out on a safer option like A-Rod in the first round or Youkilis in the third, I’d be very glad to grab Ramirez in the seventh.

Mark DeRosa (ADP 235)

Bill James .260 / 76 / 17 / 76 / 3

CHONE .262 / 74 / 16 / 69 / 2

Let me make this clear: if you miss out on one of the top ten options at third base, you’re putting yourself in a tough spot. Maybe Beckham or Stewart breaks out this season, and perhaps Chipper can somehow make it through 140 games and return a profit. However, I’d much prefer to be taking a chance on one of them as my corner infielder, as opposed to my starting third basemen. After all, at third base there’s very little upside among the late-round options.

That brings us to DeRosa. No, he doesn’t possess the high-end potential that I’d like to target in the late rounds, but he does look undervalued based on his current ADP. DeRosa has improved his power the past couple seasons at the expense of his contact skills. Sure, AT&T Park depresses home runs, but left-handed hitters are affected more so than right-handers. Besides, he’s coming from Busch Stadium, which actually ranked as the third-worst park for home runs last season based on ESPN Park Factors. Lastly, DeRosa also offers outfield eligibility, which once again provides fantasy owners with some flexibility in deep mixed leagues. In short, consider DeRosa a fallback option if you make the mistake of missing out on one of the top ten options at third base.

Overvalued

Mark Reynolds (ADP 20)

Bill James .268 / 103 / 40 / 107 / 18

CHONE .260 / 83 / 30 / 87 / 11

In our discussion of the first round, we emphasized the importance of playing it safe early on in a straight draft.

Well the fact that Mark Reynolds is currently going in the second round of mock drafts confirms that reliability continues to be underappreciated in fantasy baseball. Just ask those who drafted Josh Hamilton in the first round last year if they regret making a significant investment on a player who’s only had one great fantasy season.

Don’t make that same mistake with Reynolds this year. Does he possess elite power skills? No doubt. Does he even have decent speed skills? Sure. Nevertheless, there’s simply too much risk in using a second-round selection on a player who had the lowest contact rate in all of baseball last season. You’re practically forcing yourself to grab a player like Ichiro to make up for the loss in AVG. One can rationalize taking someone with such substantial AVG downside in the middle rounds. In the early rounds, however, there are just so many other solid options. Accordingly, pass on Reynolds and grab a safer player like Matt Holliday, Jimmy Rollins, or Brandon Phillips – all currently being taken after Reynolds.