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Five “Oddball” Strategies To Win A League: Can They Work?

Drafts/Auctions, Evaluation, Keepers, Psych-Out, Roster Management, Strategy, Trading

Those who pursue fantasy baseball championships with “oddball” strategies can’t be too different from the strange behaving personalities in the game of true-life baseball. Such being the case, Fantasy Ball Junkie has an open mind to the twisted and creative tacticians of fantasy competition. Without endorsement nor repudiation, here are five of the more unusual strategies we’ve run across, with an eye on whether these inspired gambits might actually work.

 

Draft-to-Trade

How it works: Draft players who traditionally perform excellently in the first half and poorly in the second half. Or draft hometown players you believe will command allegiance throughout your league network. Or draft baseball’s three best catchers and leave someone in your league clutching Yadier Molina. In other words, draft with little regard to need, letting trade negotiation skills pay dividend.

Odds of success: 12:1. It might help if you have some experience negotiating the release of hostages. Success here is entirely dependent on your ability to find the upper hand and smooth-talk league-mates into that killer deal. Otherwise, the clock ticks with rostered players who may depreciate in value or provide no value on your bench. 

A Pitching Staff of $1 Starters:

How it works: The title is largely self-explanatory but the concept comes as an extreme version of Ron Shandler’s LIMA plan. Direct a huge portion of an auction budget to locking up a bulldozing hitting crew. The rest of the money goes to cheap pitchers, including relievers, with good ratios but without the consistent track record and team win support to command high prices.

Odds of success:  8:1. The strategy can be effective, but it helps if you play in a shallow league with unlimited daily transactions. Finishing last in pitching is certainly not the goal, and those employing this strategy need a keen sense of undervalued pitching commodities and great transactional flexibility to use the free agent waiver wire to eventually field at very least, league-average pitching.

Punting Categories From The Get-Go

How it works: Decide from day one to forfeit the race in a certain statistical category in order to direct resources towards finishing first or very near the top in every other category. Many variations of this strategy exist, including foregoing closers and saves; foregoing stud starters and wins; and resigning oneself in the steals category. By doing each of these things, invest mid-round draft picks or moderate auction money with an eye towards unbalanced domination.

Odds of success: 10:1. League format is crucial here. In a standard 5×5 league, your room for error after sacrificing 20% of potential points will be scant. In formats that count more than 10 total categories, chances of success go up dramatically, depending on your ability to single out the category that is least correlating to the others. For instance, in leagues that count innings as a category with no innings limit, punting saves isn’t a terrible idea.

Punting Seasons From The Get-Go

How it works: Evaluate talent in the interests of determining whether being competitive in the current season is likely. In keeper leagues, when that answer is “no,” go into the draft or auction with the idea that this is going to be a “rebuilding” year. Draft or acquire young prospects or players on the cheap as well as expensive superstars to use as trade bait for later keeper considerations. Don’t bother with middling talent or care too much about fielding a competitive team. Eye on the future. 

Odds of success: 25-1. The reason why a preseason “rebuilding” strategy is likely to fail in most leagues is typical limits on the number of allowable keepers. Chances of success may go up in leagues that allow owners to protect dozens of players as well as a deep farm system (just as in real life MLB), but in leagues where keeper numbers are constrained to merely a handful, a large available player pool lets owners have a nearly even shot at success each year by acquiring talent in auction, draft, or on free agency. Owners who sacrifice a full season may garner a small edge for future seasons, but that edge will likely be smaller than the luck factor that could potentially carry a team to victory in the current season. 

Propaganda

How it works: Put up posters in the auction room that memorialize auction busts from years’ past. Spread rumors on auction day about injuries. Ask league-mate’s wife if she knows how much her spouse spent at auction last year. Hell, start a fantasy baseball blog with atrocious trade advice. 

Chances of success: 50-1. Probably not best to underestimate the intelligence of your league. Plus, it’s bad karma.

Got any other weird strategies we should consider? Post your comment.

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1 Comment

  1. Matt Sinacori  •  Jan 22, 2009 @8:40 am

    I really enjoyed the propaganda approach. FYI- My wife likes to establish a 10:1 ratio between my gambling losses and her budget for clothes.

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  • About this blog

    Fantasy Ball Junkie is a blog for advanced fantasy baseball enthusiasts who want to get an edge on competition. The site focuses on strategy, player evaluation, transactional analysis, bargaining theory, and all the skills integral to having a successful season. I can be reached with tips, requests, or abuse at editor@fantasyballjunkie.com

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