This week, we focus on Bartlett, Scutaro, and Tulowitzki. The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Shortstop continues to be a relatively thin position in fantasy baseball. Unlike third base, however, there are some late-round options with considerable upside. At the same time, I’d still much prefer to build a roster around one of the few solid options at this scarce position. Let’s once again use Mock Draft Central data to break down the market values for the top shortstops into tiers:

1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins, and Jose Reyes
3. Derek Jeter
4. Jason Bartlett, Alexei Ramirez, and Stephen Drew
5. Rafael Furcal, Miguel Tejada, Yunel Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera
6. Elvis Andrus, Orlando Cabrera, Marco Scutaro, and Erick Aybar

Given this current ADP data, which shortstops look undervalued?

Undervalued

Jason Bartlett (ADP 105)

Bill James .291 / 82 / 8 / 54 / 24

CHONE .286 / 73 / 8 / 50 / 19

Marcel .287 / 69 / 8 / 51 / 22

Bartlett enjoyed a breakout season in 2009, putting together a Roto line of .320 / 90 / 14 / 66 / 30 on his way toward finishing the season as the fourth best fantasy shortstop and 34th best player overall.

I figured he’d actually be overvalued heading into this season because in spite of last year’s output, he just isn’t a top-40 fantasy player. After all, Bartlett is fundamentally not a .320 hitter; he was helped out a good deal by a .368 BABIP last season. Still, he’s actually slipped outside the top 100 this offseason in mock drafts, and this is simply too late given how few solid options there are at shortstop. Taking a look at the projections, one can conservatively count on close to 10 home runs and roughly 20 stolen bases with an AVG near .290. The projections are also likely selling him short in runs scored, assuming Bartlett leads off for the Rays as he did much of last season, but the point is we have a pretty good idea as to what expect from him in 2010.

So what exactly is that kind of output worth? The reliable Brian Roberts has long been a favorite of mine, but Bartlett projects to post nearly the same production as Roberts, who’s currently going in the fourth round. Let’s think about the shortstop position as a whole. Ramirez, Tulowitzki, Rollins, and Reyes will all be gone by the end of the second round. If you miss out on another undervalued option in Derek Jeter in the fifth round, Bartlett makes for a very nice selection in the ninth considering the volatility in the range of outcomes among the remaining shortstops at that point.

Marco Scutaro (ADP 202)

Bill James .264 / 79 / 10 / 68 / 9

CHONE .268 / 69 / 7 / 48 / 6

Marcel .266 / 79 / 10 / 58 / 9

OK Marco Scutaro is nothing special at the plate.

Like Bartlett, he’ll also likely experience decline in the AVG category as he’s fundamentally not a .282 hitter. At the same time, Fenway Park helps out hitters more so than the Rogers Centre in terms of both AVG and runs. Maybe then we should count on something in between last season’s .282 AVG and his career .265 AVG.

Also, while the Green Monster does depress home runs for right-handed hitters, Scutaro derives hardly any of his value from that category anyway. Assuming Jacoby Ellsbury leads off for the Red Sox, Scutaro will probably hit at the bottom of the order. The boost in RBI then will be virtually negated by a decrease in runs scored.

Accordingly, we have a good idea as to what to expect from Scutaro in 2010. The fact that he’s undervalued then isn’t due to any skills analysis but rather due to another example of the fantasy community failing to appreciate replacement level theory. Last year Scutaro ranked 122nd on the ESPN Player Rater. Even accounting for some regression, he should still be a top-200 player next season – and this isn’t even taking into account that he’s a shortstop.

We play in all sorts of leagues these days, but in 12-team mixed leagues with standard 23-man lineups, scarcity is still alive and well among middle infielders. Adjusting for the replacement level middle infielders, Scutaro provides good value in the 17th round. I’d naturally prefer to grab a stud like Ramirez in the first round or Rollins in the second as my starting shortstop, but Scutaro looks like a solid middle infield option.

Overvalued

Troy Tulowitzki (ADP 19)

Bill James .291 / 99 / 27 / 89 / 15

CHONE .295 / 90 / 23 / 82 / 10

Marcel .287 / 80 / 21 / 75 / 10

I actually like Tulowitzki from a skills perspective; he made great strides last season in both power and speed.

Still, this just isn’t a player worthy of the second round – at least yet anyway. We can sum up his career thus far by saying that he was great in 2007 and 2009 and just mediocre in 2008, in which he missed a fair amount of time due to a torn tendon in his right quadriceps as well as a cut left hand.

Maybe we’ll learn that the 2009 version of Tulowitzki is actually the real deal, but the truth is we don’t really know what kind of player we have here yet. With such an early-round selection, I want to have a very good idea as to the production I can expect from that player. I also don’t like the idea of selecting a player who missed a considerable portion of time due to injury within the past two years. If that sounds like I’m nitpicking, well it should. The early rounds are your chance to be very picky about which players will form the foundation of your roster.

In short, instead of selecting a relatively unknown option like Tulowitzki, make the safe play and grab a known commodity like Matt Holliday in the second round.