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Auction Values for Fantasy Baseball 2010

Jan 29, 2010
Average Auction Values, Average Draft Position, Fantasy Baseball Auctions
By Eriq
One of the challenges for fantasy baseball competitors in auction leagues is the seeming unpredictable nature of pricing.

In contrast to drafts where competitors can refer to ADP cheat sheets, few services monitor average auction values. Instead, many auction participants often rely on experts who provide their best guesses on pricing, and as we’ve noted before on this website, there’s 20 good reasons to distrust the auction guide.

But maybe we can at least take a stab at figuring out pricing by translating ADP into AAV. Last year, we analyzed the differences between auctions and drafts, and while we certainly noted that auction participants spent a bit of a premium on pitching, a plot graph revealed a good linear correlation between the two. See here:


Others have looked into historical data and figured out the natural log function formula that one can apply to ADP in order to chart expected auction prices. We’ll spare you the details, and instead just give you the results. Following the jump, you’ll see the top 200 drafted players sorted by position and ordered by their translated AAV dollar figure.

Player / Average Auction Value (expected)
(Standard caveat: This is for a $260 cap auction league that counts typical 5×5 categories. If you don’t play in that format, you may need to adjust the pricing.)
Catchers:
  1. Joe Mauer 33
  2. Victor Martinez 24
  3. Brian McCann 20
  4. Matt Wieters 13
  5. Miguel Montero 11
  6. Kurt Suzuki 10
  7. Jorge Posada 10
  8. Russell Martin 9
  9. Bengie Molina 9
  10. Geovany Soto 8
  11. Chris Iannetta 6
  12. Mike Napoli 6
First Basemen
  1. Albert Pujols 58
  2. Prince Fielder 39
  3. Mark Teixeira 37
  4. Ryan Howard 36
  5. Miguel Cabrera 35
  6. Adrian Gonzalez 25
  7. Joey Votto 24
  8. Justin Morneau 21
  9. Kendry Morales 19
  10. Lance Berkman 17
  11. Derrek Lee 16
  12. Carlos Pena 15
  13. Billy Butler 15
  14. Jorge Cantu 9
  15. Carlos Delgado 9
  16. James Loney 8
  17. Chris Davis 8
  18. Todd Helton 7
  19. Adam LaRoche 6
Second Basemen:
  1. Chase Utley 44
  2. Ian Kinsler 30
  3. Brandon Phillips 23
  4. Dustin Pedroia 23
  5. Aaron Hill 22
  6. Robinson Cano 22
  7. Brian Roberts 21
  8. Dan Uggla 14
  9. Jose Lopez 12
  10. Ian Stewart 10
  11. Orlando Hudson 9
  12. Howie Kendrick 8
  13. Rickie Weeks 7
Shortstops:
  1. Hanley Ramirez 51
  2. Troy Tulowitzki 31
  3. Jose Reyes 29
  4. Jimmy Rollins 28
  5. Derek Jeter 21
  6. Ben Zobrist 19
  7. Jason Bartlett 14
  8. Alexei Ramirez 13
  9. Stephen Drew 11
  10. Yunel Escobar 10
  11. Miguel Tejada 10
  12. Elvis Andrus 10
  13. Asdrubal Cabrera 10
  14. Rafael Furcal 9
  15. Marco Scutaro 7
  16. Erick Aybar 6
Third Basemen:
  1. Alex Rodriguez 47
  2. Evan Longoria 34
  3. David Wright 31
  4. Mark Reynolds 28
  5. Ryan Zimmerman 25
  6. Pablo Sandoval 22
  7. Kevin Youkilis 22
  8. Aramis Ramirez 18
  9. Chone Figgins 17
  10. Michael Young 15
  11. Gordon Beckham 13
  12. Chipper Jones 12
  13. Adrian Beltre 7
  14. Mark DeRosa 7
Outfielders:
  1. Ryan Braun 42
  2. Matt Kemp 40
  3. Carl Crawford 32
  4. Matt Holliday 29
  5. Jacoby Ellsbury 28
  6. Grady Sizemore 27
  7. Justin Upton 27
  8. Jason Bay 24
  9. Jayson Werth 23
  10. Ichiro Suzuki 21
  11. Adam Lind 20
  12. Nick Markakis 19
  13. Curtis Granderson 19
  14. Andre Ethier 19
  15. Adam Dunn 19
  16. Carlos Beltran 18
  17. Josh Hamilton 17
  18. Carlos Lee 17
  19. Manny Ramirez 17
  20. Nelson Cruz 16
  21. Bobby Abreu 16
  22. Shin-Soo Choo 16
  23. Shane Victorino 16
  24. B.J. Upton 16
  25. Michael Bourn 15
  26. Alfonso Soriano 14
  27. Raul Ibanez 14
  28. Adam Jones 14
  29. Hunter Pence 13
  30. Torii Hunter 13
  31. Andrew McCutchen 13
  32. Nate McLouth 13
  33. Michael Cuddyer 13
  34. Carlos Quentin 12
  35. Denard Span 11
  36. Jay Bruce 11
  37. Jason Kubel 11
  38. Brad Hawpe 11
  39. Carlos Gonzalez 11
  40. Nyjer Morgan 11
  41. Johnny Damon 10
  42. Alex Rios 9
  43. Garrett Jones 9
  44. Rajai Davis 8
  45. Jermaine Dye 8
  46. Ryan Ludwick 7
  47. Juan Rivera 7
  48. Chris Coghlan 6
  49. Colby Rasmus 6
  50. Juan Pierre 6
Designated Hitters:
  1. Vladimir Guerrero 8
  2. David Ortiz 7
Starting Pitchers:
  1. Tim Lincecum 33
  2. Zack Greinke 26
  3. Roy Halladay 26
  4. Felix Hernandez 26
  5. C.C. Sabathia 24
  6. Johan Santana 20
  7. Justin Verlander 20
  8. Dan Haren 20
  9. Adam Wainwright 18
  10. Cliff Lee 18
  11. Jon Lester 18
  12. Chris Carpenter 18
  13. Javier Vazquez 17
  14. Josh Johnson 16
  15. Tommy Hanson 15
  16. Matt Cain 14
  17. Josh Beckett 14
  18. Jake Peavy 14
  19. Yovani Gallardo 13
  20. Ubaldo Jimenez 13
  21. Clayton Kershaw 12
  22. Cole Hamels 12
  23. Ricky Nolasco 12
  24. John Lackey 12
  25. Brandon Webb 12
  26. Jair Jurrjens 11
  27. Jered Weaver 11
  28. Wandy Rodriguez 11
  29. Chad Billingsley 11
  30. A.J. Burnett 10
  31. Matt Garza 10
  32. James Shields 10
  33. Roy Oswalt 9
  34. Carlos Zambrano 9
  35. Scott Baker 9
  36. Edwin Jackson 8
  37. John Danks 8
  38. Max Scherzer 8
  39. Ted Lilly 8
  40. Scott Kazmir 8
  41. Neftali Feliz 7
  42. Jorge de la Rosa 7
  43. David Price 7
  44. Randy Wolf 7
  45. Ryan Dempster 7
  46. J.A. Happ 7
  47. Rick Porcello 7
  48. Brett Anderson 7
  49. Rich Harden 6
  50. Gavin Floyd 6
  51. Scott Feldman 6
  52. Tim Hudson 6
  53. Clay Buchholz 6
Relievers:
  1. Joe Nathan 15
  2. Mariano Rivera 15
  3. Jonathan Broxton 15
  4. Jonathan Papelbon 14
  5. Francisco Rodriguez 12
  6. Heath Bell 12
  7. Joakim Soria 12
  8. Brian Fuentes 10
  9. Andrew Bailey 10
  10. Francisco Cordero 10
  11. Brian Wilson 9
  12. David Aardsma 9
  13. Jose Valverde 9
  14. Rafael Soriano 9
  15. Ryan Franklin 8
  16. Huston Street 8
  17. Carlos Marmol 8
  18. Trevor Hoffman 8
  19. Billy Wagner 7
  20. Bobby Jenks 7
  21. J.P. Howell 6

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8 Comments

  1. The Perminator  •  Jan 29, 2010 @10:06 pm

    Interesting. I’m in an NL only league … how can I get the same results for NL only? Is there a formula or spreadsheet you’d recommend?

    Thanks,
    Perminator

  2. FBJ Editor  •  Jan 30, 2010 @6:08 am

    I’ll have to look into AL and NL only leagues. Have to see if there’s ADP information for those leagues and then, whether there’s any correlation between ADP and AAV in those leagues. Unfortunately, there could be some differences but I’ll investigate.

    I’ve put up a side link here, “FBJ’s Player Guidebook for ‘10 Fantasy Baseball.” I’ve been gathering together all the info geared towards player (e)valuations.

  3. Toffer Peak  •  Jan 30, 2010 @6:01 pm

    I don’t get it. Is this for a 1 catcher per team league or 2 catchers. If only 1, then why are you paying any more than $1 for the worst catcher in the league?

    Could you provide more background for where these numbers are coming from and what they mean?

  4. Andrew Gephardt  •  Jan 30, 2010 @6:07 pm

    We’re using Mock Draft Central data, which is based on 2-catcher leagues. As you can tell by the values, catchers are severely underrated in 2-catcher leagues. After all, the 24th catcher should be valued at $1.

    There’s always a ton of value to be had at the catcher position.

  5. FBJ Editor  •  Jan 31, 2010 @7:44 am

    Actually, it’s based on ADP over several sites, including Mock Draft Central. Keep in mind these are only the averages, so they are being generalized as much as possible, with heavy bias to formats that are most popular.

  6. Jay Reb  •  Jan 31, 2010 @9:06 am

    What happened to Vernon Wells – has he completely fallen off the depth charts?

  7. Andrew Gephardt  •  Jan 31, 2010 @9:29 am

    Whoops, my bad for assuming. Thanks for correction.

  8. TopChuckie  •  Feb 1, 2010 @8:29 am

    Other than the closers, who tend to go a little higher in my leagues, those numbers look very indicative of what I would expect at my drafts. I too would love to see your numbers for Only Leagues and I would love to see you go deeper at each position if possible.

    I think the argument against why isn’t the last catcher needed only $1 is these prices aren’t based on what you SHOULD pay, they are based on what you should EXPECT to have to pay based on the general consensus of a player’s value. In other words, if Kendall, Zaun, Shoppach, and Buck are all right around the 23rd thru 26th best C’s in a 12 team mixed league, based on a compilation of drafts, some owners think Shoppach is the best of the bunch, and therefore worth $2, while others will think Zaun is the best of the bunch and worth $2. If you nominate any one of these guys when all 4 are left on the board, someone may want him more than the other 3 and go an extra buck to take him. Since they are all pretty equal, that owner would be better served to just settle for one of the other 3 for the minimum, i.e. he SHOULD pay only $1 for any one of them, but based on ADP trends, you can EXPECT him to pay $2.

    To me the purpose of AAV is not to determine what a guy is worth, it is to determine if you can realistically expect to win the bid for a player based on what you think he is worth. If you value a player at $12 but because you can see based on ADP or AAV that he is an overrated player according to the masses and going for an AAV of $17, well then you can pretty much cross that guy off your list of targets. If you value a player at $12 and he’s going for an AAV of $17 that doesn’t mean you SHOULD pay $17 for him, it means you should EXPECT to have to pay $17 for him, and therefore should probably pass (disregarding draft dynamics and inflation).

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    Fantasy Ball Junkie is a blog for advanced fantasy baseball enthusiasts who want to get an edge on competition. The site focuses on strategy, player evaluation, transactional analysis, bargaining theory, and all the skills integral to having a successful season. I can be reached with tips, requests, or abuse at editor@fantasyballjunkie.com

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