First base has always been treated as the position that provides the most value as well as the most depth in fantasy baseball leagues. For the latter reason, many team owners prefer to wait in drafts and auctions to grab a 1B, with the comfortable assurance that they will eventually get one who provides great power and good average. But is that analysis correct?

Yesterday, I started a series looking at positional scarcity around the baseball diamond. The first report focused on catchers, a position with two major tiers of talent — the studs and the also-rans. Today, the focus is on 1B, taking CHONE projections, translates these projections into fantasy value, and correlating the results with average draft position.  

The first chart below shows how the projected value descends moving from the first baseman who is forecast with the most fantasy value (Albert Pujols) to those with lesser CHONE expectations. I included 26 first basemen, with the interest of getting Paul Konerko here and providing a deeper talent pool in acknowledgment that many plug first basemen into their utility slot. One thing jumps out at me right away: The relative superiority of Pujols to the rest of his hombres at the position. Perhaps the biggest error that fantasy players will make in drafts this upcoming season is not taking Pujols with the top selection overall. No one wants to look at 1B as a place where the talent drops off, but that is indeed the case, according to CHONE. Furthermore, the slope of the curve is fairly drastic all the way through to Garrett Atkins. Starting with Joey Votto, the curve begins to level off, though it never hits a valley. In other words, don’t wait on a 1B. (You can click the image to enlarge.)

The second chart below shows how projected value changes at the 1B position as a draft moves forward. The first position all the way to the left is held by the 1B who by average, goes first (Pujols). The draft evolves, rightward. No huge surprises here. Judging by the spike-ups and spike-downs, CHONE likes Ryan Howard better than the 1B going before him in average drafts, Mark Teixeira, and also deems Garrett Atkins to be a much better play than Derrek Lee. The system is pretty cold on using Pablo Sandoval at the 1B position and thinks Paul Konerko to be almost as worthy a pick as the guy going 10 slots at the position before him. That would be Carlos Delgado.  

Finally, we have a stack graph that measures value in relation to draft position.

Here’s the key to deciphering the draft grades: A=round 1-2, B=3-5, C=6-10, D=11-15, E=16-20, F=21-25