Digging Deeper evaluates the depth of individual positions for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues.

By Ron Henry

We previously measured the pulse of 2010 second basemen in a Market Report. Using Mock Draft Central ADP data, here were the resulting tiers:

1. Chase Utley and Ian Kinsler
2. Brandon Phillips, Dustin Pedroia, and Brian Roberts
3. Robinson Cano, Aaron Hill, and Ben Zobrist
4. Dan Uggla, Jose Lopez, Howie Kendrick, and Asdrubal Cabrera*
5. Orlando Hudson and Rickie Weeks

(*also qualifies at SS)

I have bolded the players that are available in AL-only leagues and one can see that the position is indeed pretty strong at the top.  Eight AL second basemen are currently in the top 75 of ADP, with six of those players in the top 32.

And that doesn’t not include White Sox two-bagger Gordon Beckham.  He started all his games last year at the hot corner, but is returning to his natural position at second to start the year and currently has an ADP in the 45 range, somewhere in between tiers 3 and 4 above.

In smaller leagues, one could be argue that second base is the strongest fantasy position in the AL.  But in larger leagues, the depth drops off quickly after these options.  Let’s take a look.

Digging Deeper (All players currently in the 110-135 ADP range)

Maicer Izturis, Alexi Casilla

A bit sparse, huh?  After Howie Kendrick, who is going around pick 75, there’s a four-round wait until the next second baseman, Izturis.

Izturis pulled in decent enough stats last year, but one has to keep in mind that he isn’t a true starter in the Angels lineup, instead playing more of a super-utility role in the Angels infield.

Casilla is in a similar boat in Minnesota behind Nick Punto and J.J. Hardy, but brings an even bigger drain on your average, coming in at .202 last year.  He’s due for some bounce back, but as an everyday fantasy player he’s bound to be disappointing.

The Longshots (All players currently in the 150-250 ADP range)

Mark Ellis, Alberto Callaspo, Scott Sizemore, Nick Punto, Chris Getz

This is how quickly things go from glorious to ugly in the AL.

Mark Ellis has spent the last 5 years proving he is a consistently mediocre player and he’s not going to be getting much better anytime soon.  Punto doesn’t get enough at bats, nor does he do much with them to earn a roster spot.  However, if it’s late in the draft and your team came up short on speed with MI still open, he’s an option.  Sizemore never did anything in the minors until last year. I’m not ready to trust him yet.  As you’ll see below, I worry about Getz getting enough at-bats to be worth a roster spot, but he is also a lottery ticket for steals.

Overrated

Brian Roberts: I think Roberts is a phenomenal player for what he does, but let’s be clear about what we are drafting here.  Roberts will be a 32-year-old second baseman who has seen his average, OBP, and stolen bases go down over the last three years while his strikeouts and slugging percentage have gone up.  Only one of these things is good for those keeping track at home.  This is no longer one of the dominant AL forces in speed and while he is compensating with a little extra power, he’s making a lot less contact.  Don’t draft for 40+ steals, I think we’re looking at .280 with 20 homers and about 22 steals without much upside for more.

Ben Zobrist: This to me is a huge market overreaction to what was, no doubt, a fantastic season.  Here is a guy who blasted his career highs for batting average, OBP, slugging percentage out of the water while also gaining the propensity to nab bases at a pretty successful rate.  To top it all off, his BABIP jumped from his previous career high of .255 to .330 last year.  I think the power is for real but I think we are looking more at a Dan Uggla type player than a Chase Utley here (sorry for the NL crossover, but those were the best comparisons!).  Expect some regression to an average in the .260-.270 range and I’d be surprised if he gets to 17 steals again.

Underrated

Robinson Cano: This is a bit redundant from the second baseman Market Report, but I really have to agree with Andrew here.  I look at his past five years of performance and the only aberration is his 2008 where he went .271/.305/.410 and never seemed quite comfortable at the plate.  Besides that, he has been a legitimate .320 hitter whose power is blossoming at the same time as his batting eye.  While his strikeouts actually went down in more at bats last year, he nearly doubled his homerun total and is hitting the traditional power peak at age 27 this year.  He won’t help much in steals (45% career success rate), but 100-30-100 is within reach and I give him a chance to give Kinsler a run for his money as the top 2B in the AL.

Jose Lopez: Similar to Cano, Lopez is hitting his peak years as a power hitter and it has shown in significant bumps in his homerun total and slugging percentage over the last 3 years; also like Cano, he’s not going to help in steals.  The difference between the two is that he’ll never, ever be confused for a .320 hitter.  Those in OBP leagues might need to look elsewhere, but his stat line should be just fine in standard 5×5.  The Mariners have brought in some more high OBP guys to protect him in Casey Kotchman and Chone Figgins  so I like his chances at breaking 30 homers and 100 RBI this year.  Not bad for a sixth round pick.

Sleeper

Alberto Callaspo: Last year, Callaspo put up a .300/.356/.457 line while manning second base for the Royals.  A key to staying successful in fantasy baseball is spending late round/cheap auction picks on solid players toiling on obscure teams.  Callaspo has maintained a .300+ average over the last two years and his slugging percentage has jumped by 80-100 points year over year the past three years.  The only risk here is Chris Getz winning the job out of spring training but I’m willing to bet that doesn’t happen.  I’m also willing to bet that due to the offensive weakness of the Royals at a few other positions, that Callaspo will still find himself in the lineup on days he isn’t playing the four.  Also entering his magical 27-year, I could easily see an 80-20-80 season with a .300 average at a bargain basement price.

My AL-Only 2B Tiers

1. Ian Kinsler
2. Dustin Pedroia, Robinson Cano
3. Aaron Hill, Brian Roberts, Jose Lopez
4. Ben Zobrist, Gordon Beckham*, Howie Kendrick, Alberto Callaspo
5. Maicer Izturis, Alexi Casilla, Mark Ellis, Scott Sizemore, Nick Punto, Chris Getz

* Likely not eligible at 2B to start the year