The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

We conclude our weekly look at each position by analyzing the group of players —relief pitchers — who drive fantasy owners crazy more so than any other position.

Just as in the case of starting pitchers, the fantasy community as a whole significantly misvalues closers. Selecting an elite closer like Jonathan Papelbon or Mariano Rivera in the sixth round isn’t a bad decision in and of itself. Indeed, each and every year you’ll find closers among the top 50 fantasy players on any Player Rater.

One problem with this approach to drafting closers, though, is the opportunity cost in making such a pick. After all, at that stage in the draft there are still reliable hitters like Shane Victorino and Bobby Abreu available.

It’s worth pointing out that as we enter the 2010 season, only two bullpens haven’t settled on a closer: Toronto and Houston. While things may seem resolved on the surface, rest assured that many closers will lose their jobs again this year due to injury or poor results. Just as with starting pitchers then, I’m unlikely to end up with any of the elite closers, too. Let’s once again break down the ADPs provided by Mock Draft Central for relief pitchers into tiers:

1. Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Nathan, and Francisco Rodriguez
2. Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Francisco Cordero, Brian Fuentes, and Andrew Bailey
3. Jose Valverde, Brian Wilson, Carlos Marmol, Ryan Franklin, Billy Wagner, David Aardsma, Huston Street, Rafael Soriano, Bobby Jenks, and Trevor Hoffman
4. Mike Gonzalez, JP Howell, Frank Francisco, Fernando Rodney, Matt Capps, Brad Lidge, Kerry Wood, Chad Qualls, and Leo Nunez
5. Octavio Dotel, Scott Downs, Matt Thornton, Ryan Madson, Kevin Jepsen, and Jason Frasor

Before we identify which relief pitchers look misvalued, a few notes. First of all, that third tier is quite long for a reason. Only 25 picks separate Jose Valverde from Trevor Hoffman with eight closers in between them; that’s a run on a position if there ever was one. Next, you’ll notice that non-closers JP Howell and Fernando Rodney are currently being taken ahead of actual closers. While Rodney wouldn’t be a middle reliever I’d target, there’s something to be said for grabbing middle relievers with excellent skills like Ryan Madson to provide help in ERA and WHIP, especially if your league allows for deep benches. Indeed, if there’s any value to be had among relievers, you’re more likely to find it among middle relievers than closers.

Undervalued

Huston Street (ADP 154)

• Bill James 2.37 ERA and 1.05 WHIP with 60 strikeouts in 57 IP
• CHONE 3.11 ERA and 1.11 WHIP with 61 strikeouts in 55 IP
• Marcel 3.43 ERA and 1.14 WHIP with 63 strikeouts in 63 IP

Following an offseason trade from Oakland in November 2008, Street won the closer’s role over Manny Corpas last spring. While he struggled early with a 6.10 ERA in April and briefly lost the job, Street eventually settled in and was excellent as closer last year.

Let’s do a quick comparison of a couple players based on their peripherals in 2009.

Player A: 10.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 5.4 K/BB, 38% GB rate

Player B: 10.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 3.2 K.BB , 27% GB rate

While the skills of Player B are certainly strong, the peripherals of Player A are just stellar. As you may have guessed, Player A is Street. So who’s Player B? Jonathan Papelbon. This isn’t a criticism of Papelbon as much as a testament to Street. While the fantasy community looks at Street as an average closer, he’s an elite option in my estimation. Why select Papelbon in the sixth round when you can get Street seven rounds later?

Chad Qualls (ADP 254)

• Bill James 3.42 ERA and 1.22 WHIP with 41 strikeouts in 50 IP
• CHONE 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP with 49 strikeouts in 57 IP
• Marcel 3.72 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 51 strikeouts in 58 IP

Qualls suffered a dislocated kneecap in August last year, missing the last month of the season. That may partly explain the fact that his stock has plummeted this offseason. Still, he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training, and his average draft position in the 22nd round more than offsets any such risk.

Like Street, Qualls displayed excellent peripherals in 2009. He had a decent strikeout rate at 7.8; more impressive, however, were his 1.2 BB/9 and 6.4 K/BB – both league-leading ratios. As usual, he also posted a strong groundball rate at 57%.

Overall then, in Qualls we have a rarity in fantasy baseball – an underappreciated closer. Unless you’re able to grab Street at a discount, don’t get involved in the run on closers in the middle rounds. Instead, wait to grab a quality arm like Qualls at a fraction of the cost.

Overvalued

Francisco Rodriguez (ADP 87)

• Bill James 2.67 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with 79 strikeouts in 64 IP
• CHONE 2.95 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 70 strikeouts in 64 IP
• Marcel 3.55 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 68 strikeouts in 66 IP

I could go with so many names here. Once again, the fantasy community as a whole does a poor job of valuing closers. Brian Fuentes (ADP 111), Ryan Franklin (ADP 142), David Aardsma (ADP 148) – these are just a few closers whose skills don’t live up to their market values.

Rodriguez’s ADP, however, is truly unjustified. Let’s put aside the fact that his skills are in decline for a minute. Take a look at some of the hitters that are currently being selected after him – Derrek Lee, Andrew McCutchen, and Torii Hunter. Is the fantasy community really that worried about saves that it’s willing to miss out some of these quality bats?

I could see the case for Joe Nathan or Mariano Rivera because you’re getting 70 innings of lights-out ratios. With Rodriguez, though, even the surface statistics were nothing special last season: 3.71 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Moreover, his peripherals were even less impressive: a 9.7 K/9 and a 5.0 BB/9 for a 1.9 K/BB.

Accordingly, taking into account that closers are misvalued in general and we have a player here whose skills suggest further decline this season, we just might have the most overrated player in fantasy baseball in Francisco Rodriguez. Add him to the Avoid List.