Earlier this week, we started a series that looks at each position with an eye towards measuring talent scarcity. I’m taking CHONE projections, translating these projections into fantasy value, and correlating the results with average draft position.  The series started at the catcher position, moved onto the first base position, and now we’re rounding second base. For more details on the methodology, click on the prior links.

Depending on how you want to look at it, 2B is either a very deep position or a very scarce one. Both statements are true because the talent curve isn’t very drastic. In fact, judging by the interactive bar chart below (java required) that translates CHONE values on a ten-point fantasy value scale, it’s hard to truly identify any drastic tiers among producers at the position. If fully healthy, Chase Utley would have earned his reputation as having a huge fantasy production edge on those who share his defensive position. (We’ll revisit Utley in a future post.) Unfortunately, those who target Ian Kinsler, Brian Roberts, Brandon Phillips, or Dustin Pedroia in early rounds don’t seem to be getting much of  an advantage over those who are drafting other 2B. The slope through the top and mid-range players is consistent and gradual without any arresting plunges. With a slope of this nature, the best strategy may be to let the draft market decide when it’s time to pull a trigger on a 2B, avoiding being the first nor the last to take one.

Next, we highlight values as as a draft moves forward. The first position all the way to the left is held by the 2B who by average, goes first (Utley). The draft evolves, rightward. Maybe not surprisingly, considering the closeness of value among 2B producers, fantasy baseball drafters seem to have let gut instinct determine draft position. There are ups and downs of projected value throughout. Fantasy baseball owners deem Pedroia to be the third best 2B available, but CHONE gives better value to Roberts and Phillips, both selected afterwards. Owners seem to hate Rickie Weeks, making him the 13th 2B off the board, but CHONE sees him as producing more value than five 2B (Alexei Ramirez, Mark DeRosa, Mike Aviles, Jose Lopez, and Kelly Johnson) picked earlier. Right now, DeRosa is being picked #9 in line, but CHONE doesn’t see him as anymore valuable than Eugenio Velez, all the way to the right. Drafting a 2B might be like throwing a dart, blind-folded, this year.  

Finally, we have a stack graph that measures value in relation to draft position. Come back soon, Chase.

Here’s the key to deciphering the draft grades: A=round 1-2, B=3-5, C=6-10, D=11-15, E=16-20, F=21-25