Digging Deeper evaluates the depth of individual positions for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues.

By Ron Henry

We previously measured the pulse of 2010 outfielders in a Market Report.  In Digging Deeper, we will take a look at the options after the top outfielders in each league and point out some players that might deviate from their publicly perceived value.

Top 22 Outfielders (ADP less than 62)

Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jason Bay, Matt Holliday, Justin Upton, Jayson Werth, Manny Ramirez, Shane Victorino, Adam Dunn, Carlos Lee, Andre Ethier, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Beltran, Nate McLouth, Hunter Pence, Andrew McCutchen, Raul Ibanez, Michael Bourn, Brad Hawpe, Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gonzalez, Jay Bruce

This is the top echelon of players in NL-only leagues.  All of these players are either effective 4-5 tool players (such as Kemp and Pence), power specialists (such as Dunn and Ibanez), or elite speed options (such as Bourn and Morgan).

Most, if not all, of these players will be taken in the first 6 rounds of a standard 10-team league.  It is important to denote this tier as the next outfielders as there is a large gap until the next outfielders come off the board, around the 90^th pick of the draft.  The remaining players all have some question marks about their abilities or reliability.

Let’s see who some of these players are.

Digging Deeper (All players currently in the 90-130 ADP range)

Colby Rasmus, Garrett Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Corey Hart, Carlos Gomez, Chris Coghlan, Cameron Maybin, Chase Headley, Marlon Byrd, Daniel Murphy

There are a few decent power options (Jones, Ludwick, Headley) coming off the board at this stage of the draft as well as a few post-hype sleepers (Gomez, Headley, Murphy).  All of the players seem to have a starting job secured and in 3-OF leagues, this is likely a good place to secure a final starter with secured playing time while targeting a specific statistic.

Overrated

Carlos Gomez (ADP 99.18): The speed of Gomez is quite tantalizing, especially in a deep league, but patience needs to be preached in this instance.  In three years in the major leagues, Gomez has yet to post an OBP above .300 and his SB success percentage has decreased each year as well (66.7% in 2009).  He is the classic case of the old adage, You can’t steal first base, and likely hitting at the back of the order will only depress his plate appearances.

His current ADP more clearly reflects his upside as owners are trying to snag the next Michael Bourn circa 2009; however, he is far more likely to deliver totals well short of this draft position.  There are still speedy outfielders available much further down the board, such as Fowler and Stubbs, with just as much upside.

Underrated

Cameron Maybin (ADP 118.21): Kicking off the 2009 season, Maybin was all the rage as the next Florida prospect to explode on the big scene; instead, Maybin’s game exploded and he was sent down to AAA in May, where he was forgotten by most fantasy owners.  In his month and half stretch, Maybin had managed to collect but a single homerun and stolen base while posting an embarrassing .202/.280/.310 line.  Luckily, Maybin’s major league season didn’t end there as he was called back up during roster expansion on September 1.

Over the next 28 games, Maybin re-established himself as a starter, hitting 3 more homeruns as he raised his batting average 48 points and his slugging percentage 99 points. Though he still has much to learn on the basepaths, most of his potential remains untapped as he is still only 22 years old.  With the additional year of minor league seasoning, expect Maybin to exceed the lowered expectations set for him this year.

Further Depths (All players currently in the 130-175 ADP range)

Dexter Fowler, Melky Cabrera, Conor Jackson, Kyle Blanks, Drew Stubbs, Cody Ross, Scott Hairston, Josh Willingham, Chris Young, Kosuke Fukudome, Jason Heyward, Ben Francisco, Geraldo Parra

Overrated

Ben Francisco (ADP 168.43): From a skillset perspective, Francisco is probably deserving of a better draft position, but the obvious concern in his situation will be playing time.  Philadelphia has one of the most established and productive outfields in the NL, featuring Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth.  And sadly for Francisco, those three players have averaged 148.5 games each over the last two seasons.

There are still too many productive starters available at this stage of the draft to invest in a fourth outfielder who will likely only derive meaningful statistics if a durable teammate gets injured.  Keep him in mind as a great free agent acquisition in the case of such injury, but don’t waste such an early pick on draft day.

Underrated

Chris Young (ADP 154.21): Young’s value essentially bottomed out last year, two years removed from a 32-HR 27-SB campaign, as he hit .212 with 15 HR and only 11 SB.  However, there were some signs of improvement.  Known as an over-aggressive player, Young has actively worked on his plate discipline and it showed last year in increases in both his K% and BB% as his pitches per plate appearance went up to 4.11.  Only 26 years old, this improved discipline should lead to deeper counts and better pitches to hit.

FanGraphs seems to agree that there is still upside potential here.  Additionally, with the release of Eric Byrnes, Arizona has fully committed to Young as their starting centerfielder for 2010 and his defense will keep him in the lineup late into games.  While it might be wise to pair him with a high batting average player, there are very few outfielders this late in the draft with so much upside in both the power and speed categories.

The Longshots (All players currently in the 190-220 ADP range)

Xavier Nady, Jeff Francoeur, Aaron Cunningham, Gary Sheffield, Will Venable, Ryan Spilborghs, Nate Schierholtz, Lastings Milledge, Fred Lewis, Elijah Dukes, Ryan Church, Aaron Rowand, Seth Smith, Mike Stanton

At this stage of the draft, most teams are securing a final outfielder or acquiring a reserve player that could help later in the season.  As such, these picks are much more about potential upside than likely downside as players can easily be placed on the bench or waived altogether.  Keep this in mind before spending a pick on a stable veteran that offers replacement level statistics that will simply waste away on a fantasy bench.

Sleepers

Nate Schierholtz (ADP 202.96): With the departure of Randy Winn, Schierholtz is likely to break camp with the Giants as the starting left fielder for the first time in his career.  He has yet to show significant power at the major league level but posted between 14-18 HR at three different levels in the minor leagues from 2005-2008.  He seemed to get overexposed in nearly 300 at-bats last year, but is still just 26 years old and has the chance for growth beyond an empty average.  At worst, he can serve as a suitable short-term fill-in for an injured player; at best, he could blossom into a 15-HR, .300 AVG starter worthy of a fourth outfielder spot in an NL-only league.

Lastings Milledge (ADP 204.89): Milledge is a player who seems to have burned many fantasy owners too many times, which is the only good explanation for why such a talented player is falling this far.  The Pirates have become the third team to commit to Milledge as a part of their future and you tend to get the feeling that if it doesn’t work out, it could be the end of the road for the 24-year old outfielder.

So far in Spring Training, Milledge is saying all the right things and Pittsburgh seems to be very happy with his progress.  Remember that his 2009 season was derailed by a freak injury and an immature flare-up with his previous organization, the Washington Nationals.  The Pirates have focused on discipline and instruction with Milledge in the hopes of turning his career around and if it pays off, he could be the steal of the draft this year as a 20-20 player with even more upside for the future.