Anybody who has ever participated in an auction knows the moment, the instance when silence stops, when noise begins: the beat of a woodpecker? No. More, like a steadily ascending recitation of numbers. The object of bidding frenzy might be a painting by Picasso or a dreamy third basemen with both power and speed. Doesn’t matter. The scene is exciting. Not to mention, terrible for getting a great value.
Game theorists who study auctions might characterize the moment as having “high velocity.” Lots of bidding in a short time frame. It’s an auction setting that’s perfect for “weak bidders,” those who know that they can be outbid and so bid more aggressively. Studies show the weak typically win bidding, whereas the strong sit back and hold out for a really great deal.
In fantasy baseball, however, it’s not always possible to be reserved. Sure, it pays to save some cash for the end, for those necessary last-dollar sleepers, but owners must spend cash throughout the auction, in the interest of filling out a full roster, complete with mid- and high-priced superstars.
High velocity is fun, and gives those who know a bit less about baseball to bid with confidence — if everybody else is bidding, this player must be worth it — but as stated above, it’s antithetical to winning a player at a good value. So what can those at auctions do to forestall bidding velocity? Here’s a few tips:
1. Consider your opening bid. It may seem easy to bid the minimum from the outset, but it’s also an invitation for others to get aboard a player’s bidding with insignificant risk and thought. Instead, consider the strategy known as “bid shading,” above the minimum but below full value. Putting out a mid-range bid from the get-go compels thought and inaction.
2. Make uneven bids. It’s also unwise to bid in minimum increments as bidding unfolds. The strategy provokes others to regard their retort bid as being low-risk, being so close in number to the bid they made previously. Instead, if the bidding cycle has room to the finish line, mix up both small and large jumps in bidding. Again, the idea is to get everyone to think about the worthiness of their bids and disrupt the beat of the woodpecker.
3. Exploit psychological thresholds. The difference between $10 and $9 may only be a buck, but for whatever reason, bidders sometimes can be reluctant to take bidding into double digits. In fact, since western society’s mathematical system uses a 10-base, bidders will regard $10, $20, $30…as having some magical significance. By making a bid that ends with a 9, you’re daring your competitor to cross the 10-base threshold. The acceptance of any dare requires thought.
Thought is something nobody hears. It’s silent. It’s also the woodpecker’s poison.
More auction tips: Freeze the market from the start.