Last week, we started a series that looks at each position with an eye towards measuring talent scarcity. I’m taking CHONE projections, translating these projections into fantasy value, and correlating the results with average draft position.  The series started at the catcher position, moved onto the first base position, rounded second base, and now we’re stopping off at shortstop. For more details on the methodology, click on the prior links.

Common wisdom this preseason holds that shortstop is THE place where fantasy baseball participants need to pay attention to talent scarcity. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes are two of the top five picks taken overall in most drafts. Jimmy Rollins is typically selected within the next ten picks. Fantasy gurus justify these selections by pointing to the steep drop in projected production at the shortstop position thereafter. Is this analysis correct?

Judging by the interactive bar chart below (java required), it does appear as though the drop-off in projected production from the top tier to the rest of the SS group is indeed bold and worthy of first round consideration. Having Reyes or Ramirez in one’s fantasy lineup promises a startling advantage, according to CHONE. Coming off a semi-disappointing season, Rollins does not project up into the Reyes/Ramirez plateau, but he does offer enough prospective value to hang above the SS also-runs by a comfortable margin. After Rollins, the slope is as flat at the Abyssal plains: There’s hardly a lick of projected overall value difference between Rafael Furcal, Derek Jeter, and Michael Young. The rest of the curve might make a decent sledding run, but sufficiently horizontal whereby fantasy baseball team owners might be wise to sit back and accept whatever shortstop that’s last off the draft board, whether that’s Mike Aviles or Orlando Cabrera. 

Next, we highlight values as as a draft moves forward. Perhaps somewhat surprising is the fact that the line goes upwards right after Hanley Ramirez. The slope isn’t very significant, but CHONE and the translating player rater judges Jose Reyes’ steals advantage to be more valuable than Hanley’s upper hand in HRs and AVG. It’s possible that having the #5 pick in the draft (typically Reyes slot) might be the ideal location for fantasy baseball drafters. According to the chart below, mock draft participants seem to be largely making selections that would garner approval from CHONE. The big exceptions would be overvaluing Stephen Drew, projected as the 14th most valuable SS but drafted as the 8th, and slightly undervaluing Jhonny Peralta and Orlando Cabrera.

Finally, we have a stack graph that measures value in relation to draft position.

a>
Here’s the key to deciphering the draft grades: A=round 1-2, B=3-5, C=6-10, D=11-15, E=16-20, F=21-25