By Andrew Gephardt

We’re still waiting for the stats to “normalize,” but it’s time for another Market Report.

Analysis after the jump:

Two players off to excellent starts who might be good Buy High targets are Paul Konerko and Francisco Liriano.

Let’s start with Konerko. He entered the week ranked seventh on the ESPN Player Rater with a league-leading 12 home runs to go along with 24 RBI and 15 runs. To some, he might look like a prime Sell High candidate. But get this: Konerko has been one of the unluckiest hitters in the game thus far with a .194 BABIP, the third-lowest in the American League. Let’s face it: Konerko owners got lucky this year; you’d be hard-pressed to find him on many Sleeper lists this spring. It stands to reasons that some Konerko owners might be looking to cash in on their investment, so maybe it’s time to make an offer to acquire a player who seems like he’s in the midst of one of those special Last Hurrah seasons.

Owners of Francisco Liriano — unlike those who own Konerko — probably have a Man Crush. These competitors drafted Liriano despite the negative vibes and are probably less inclined to move him now that he’s performing well. Still, there’s no getting around it: Liriano is an elite fantasy starting pitcher once again. The market may look at him as merely a Top 25 starting pitcher, but I’d have a tough time coming up with a list of 10 pitchers I prefer to Liriano going forward. Yes, he’s getting a tad lucky as his 3.08 xFIP more than doubles his 1.50 ERA. At the same time, that same xFIP trails only Tim Lincecum and Roy Halladay thus far. In short, Liriano looks like this year’s Zack Greinke, a pitcher taken in the middle rounds who won’t make it past Round 5 in any leagues next year.

I may be bullish on Konerko and Liriano going forward, but I’m bearish on David Freese and Wade Davis. Both are young players who may appear to be breakout candidates at the moment, but I think each will still face some growing pains this year.

Freese entered the week second in the National League with a .355 AVG. On a related note, guess who entered the week with the highest BABIP in the National League? That’s right, David Freese. Accordingly, here is a player in line for significant regression in the short term. Advertise him as a breakout candidate hitting behind Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, and sell now.

For similar reasons, no time may be better than the present to move Wade Davis. Here we have a player who was a relatively popular Sleeper selection this spring. On the surface, he’s living up to the hype thus far with a 2.79 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. A closer look, however, reveals a fair amount of good luck as he has a 4.59 xFIP thanks to a low .231 BABIP. Davis certainly holds the potential to be a very effective pitcher one day, but he’ll struggle this year unless he significantly improves his poor control.

The fantasy stocks for Freese and Davis are peaking just as those for Dan Haren and Juan Pierre have reached their nadir.

In most competitive leagues Haren will probably be tough to pry away from his owner and for good reason. This is arguably the safest elite starting pitcher in the MLB player pool today. Haren’s reliability continues to be underappreciated in the fantasy marketplace. After all, he’s gone five consecutive seasons pitching 200 innings with a K/BB greater than 3.0. In addition, his strikeout has remarkably risen every year of his career. Simply put, Dan Haren is money in the bank. Nevertheless, due to the statistical oddities that can happen in a small sample size, he currently has a mediocre 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP despite a 3.32 xFIP. If you can get Haren for even 95 cents on the dollar, do so now. There are only two clearly better starting pitchers in the game today: Lincecum and Halladay. That’s it. If your staff is really struggling, here’s one bona fide ace worth pursuing.

Juan Pierre too is off to a slow start from a fantasy perspective thus far. Just like with Haren, though, it’s a mirage. Pierre somehow currently has a contact rate greater than 95% yet is hitting just over .200 due to a .211 BABIP. With his excellent speed, this simply can’t continue. In spite of his troubles getting on base, Pierre does have 12 stolen bases thus far. Just as we indicated in a pre-season Market Report, once his BABIP regresses to the mean, there’s potential for 60 steals here.

Lastly, two players who have me worried are Gordon Beckham and Max Scherzer.

Beckham received a fair amount of hype this preseason as a player who could take his game to fantasy stardom. Well, it’s looking more and more like that was premature. At this point, Beckham his displayed subpar power and speed skills, and we’ll probably have to wait another couple years until he’s a fantasy star. Even so, this is the type of player who interests many owners in any fantasy league due to the tremendous upside. Sell now based on the public perception. In reality, there’s really not much difference between Beckham and low-end Mixed League players like Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff.

Max Scherzer was another popular breakout pick in the preseason after posting a 9.2 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB in 2009. To put it lightly, things haven’t gone so well for him so far in 2010. After Monday night’s pummeling, he now has a 6.47 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. With 21 strikeouts against 11 walks, it’s not like he’s been all that unlucky either. It seems fantasy owners continue to underrate the move from the National League to the American League. Don’t count on that Scherzer breakout this year.