The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Now that we’re into mid-May, it’s time to start giving some merit to the standings. We should begin to address any glaring holes, be they a certain categorical weakness or a below-average player at a particular roster spot. With that, let’s take a look at this week’s Matrix.

We’ll start today by looking at a couple of players who have regained their status as fantasy stars. I’m buying the early successes of both James Shields and Vernon Wells.

Let’s start with Shields. Here’s a player who regressed last season, posting a 4.14 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. Even so, he continued to be a durable performer, posting at least 215 innings for the third consecutive season. Let’s keep in mind Shields is still just 28 years old. While his disappointing 2009 campaign can’t really be attributed to bad luck, it’s certainly not uncommon for a skilled starting pitcher to have a down year in any given season that only offers a sample size of 35 starts. Shields has displayed the top skills among all American League starters thus far with 9.6 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9, leading to a 3.12 xFIP. Moreover, while his 1.39 WHIP looks bad on the surface, he’s been subjected to the fourth-highest BABIP in the league at .363. In short, James Shields is once again a fantasy ace.

Sometimes the stats don’t match up to the skills. That’s not the case with Vernon Wells, currently in the top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater. It’s looking more and more like the fractured wrist that Wells suffered in 2008 depressed his power into last season, and he’s just now finally healthy. He’s always posted good contact rates, but the plus power hasn’t been there since 2006. The speed skills haven’t been great thus far, but he’s still more than capable of a dozen or so steals. Overall, Vernon Wells owners may look at him merely as a top 30 outfielder, he looks more like a top 15 outfielder going forward to me.

On the flip side, I’m not a believer in Rich Harden or Casey McGehee.

Harden is coming off a couple of good outings, so it’s possible he’s made a mechanical correction and turned the corner. Still, while he’s never displayed excellent control, his 6.3 BB/9 gives cause for concern. The results have actually been pretty good so far, as he has a 3.53 ERA and 34 strikeouts in just over 35 innings. In reality, though, he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball with a 83% LOB rate and .265 BABIP, leading to a 5.76 xFIP. Accordingly, unless Harden significantly improves his control, he’s in line for considerable short-term ERA correction.

MeGehee has also been quite fortunate so far in 2010. On the surface, he might look like the real deal, as he’s second in the league with 30 RBI to go along with a .310 AVG and 7 HR. Plus, this comes after a strong 2009 campaign in which he hit .301 with 16 HR in 116 games. At the same time, McGehee has been a tad lucky in the batted ball department, and his AVG should really be closer to .270. More importantly, he’s been very lucky to post 7 HR thus far. HitTracker reveals that 2 of the 7 were “Lucky” while the other 5 were of the “Just Enough” variety. Simply put, McGehee is an excellent Sell High candidate.

Adam Lind and Aaron Harang will only improve going forward.

Lind seemed a little undervalued to me in drafts this pre-season, and I’m not backing away from that stance despite his relatively slow start. Here’s a player who broke out with a .305 AVG and 35 HR in 2009; more importantly, the skills fully supported the results. Lind’s Minor League track record hinted at stardom in the Majors; it just took him awhile to put it all together. Power hitters who are capable of 35 HR and a .300 AVG just don’t come around very often. I’m not willing to give up on this talented hitter with the season only one-fifth done.

Harang was another player that looked undervalued to me this spring, and he was mentioned in one of this pre-season’s Market Reports. Whereas Harden has been one of the luckiest pitchers to date in 2010, Harang has been one of the unluckiest. The skills have actually been very good thus far – 8.0 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 in the process of a 3.53 xFIP. Even so, Harang currently has just a 6.02 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP, thanks to an unsustainable .361 BABIP. In short, here’s a very good Buy Low candidate. In shallow leagues Harang is probably a Free Agent, as he’s owned in just 31% of ESPN leagues. If available, grab him now, as he’s already started to turn it around with three consecutive quality starts.

Finally, two players who have me worried due to slow starts are Chad Billingsley and Jason Bay.

Billingsley has been overvalued for a few years now, but that name recognition still offers the chance for fantasy owners to return good value for him in a trade. Here are his xFIPs over the past five seasons: 5.39, 4.14, 3.62, 4.04, and 4.56 so far in 2010. Sure, he was a strong fantasy contributor in 2008, but that’s looking more and more like the outlier. With 4.3 BB/9 so far, Billingsley’s control has actually regressed this season. Move him now before others realize that he’s simply an OK Mixed League fantasy option at this point.

Bay looked overvalued to me going into the season. While he hasn’t been a .300 hitter for five years now, he’s looking more and more like an AVG killer at this point due to a poor contact rate of 69% thus far. We’re still in the early stages of evaluating Citi Field, but it depressed runs in 2009 and has done the same so far in 2010. Whether it’s the ballpark or not, the fact remains that Bay’s ISO is currently just .137, even lower than the .171 he put up in his disappointing 2007 season. For a player who receives so much of his value from the home run, this is a bad omen for Bay’s fantasy stock. There’s still probably an owner in any league who looks at Bay as a 35 HR threat. Fantasy owners should look to move him now, as Bay is unlikely to finish with much more than 20 HR.