The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

As we approach the one-quarter mark for the season, it’s time for another Market Report.

One player whose strong start looks legitimate is Alex Rios. Here’s a player who entered 2009 as a stable skill set deserving of an early-round selection. After all, he’d been coming off a pair of seasons in which he averaged 20 / 25 while hitting above .290. Although he continued to contribute in HR and SB in 2009, his AVG slipped all the way down to .247, fully supported by the secondary stats. Accordingly, his fantasy stock dipped over the offseason, and he lasted until Round 10 in drafts this spring. Thus far in 2010, however, Rios is back in full force. He’s currently sporting a Roto line of .308 / 7 / 18 / 22 / 12, good for the Top 10 on the ESPN Player Rater. The power and speed skills are once again strong, but more importantly a high contact rate at 87% has allowed him to post a strong AVG too. I look at 2009 as the outlier, and I think he’s reestablished himself as a top 50 fantasy player. In short, Rios is among a handful of players capable of contributing positively in all five hitting categories. Buy high if possible.

Tommy Hanson is another player whose hot start is real. As a rookie in 2009, he burst on the scene with a 2.89 ERA and 1.18 WHIP with 116 strikeouts in just over 127 innings. A closer look, though, might have led fantasy players to temper expectations, as he posted an unspectacular 4.03 xFIP. Well, Hanson is certainly proving any doubters wrong this year, posting truly elite skills thus far. He currently has a 10.1 K/9 and a 2.3 BB/9, resulting in a 4.3 K/BB. Needless to say, few pitchers in the game are capable of this lethal combination of strikeouts yet so few walks. I figured Hanson was a stud in the making coming into 2010, but let’s face it: this is already a fantasy star.

On the other hand, I think the hot start of Chase Headley is a mirage. Here’s a player currently in the top 75 on the ESPN Player Rater. Now if I’d been told that prior to the season, I wouldn’t have found it all that surprising. After all, Headley came up as a top prospect in the Padres system, so there’s certainly talent here. But it’s how he’s providing value that is just astounding. Here’s a player who never stole more than a handful of bases in the Minors, yet he’s currently on pace for 30 SB this year. Headley may very well be good at picking his spots to run, but his track record suggests that he simply doesn’t offer great speed. When one couples this with the fact that his BABIP is relatively high at .355, this is a player whose value will only decline going forward.

Clay Buchholz is another player whom fantasy owners might be able to sell as a young player on the rise. On the surface, Buchholz is off to a nice start so far with a 3.46 ERA in just under 42 innings. In reality, though, he’s been pretty fortunate. He currently has a K/9 of just 6.0 yet a BB/9 of 4.8, leading to an xFIP of 4.65. Fantasy players have been waiting for Buchholz to break out for awhile now, so there’s some name value here that might allow for a decent return in trade. Sell now; there’s no breakout here.

Another member of the Red Sox on whom I’m bearish going forward is Jonathan Papelbon. Now the Red Sox closer isn’t really struggling from a results perspective. He has a 3.15 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP, and his blown save on Monday night against the Yankees was his first of the year. There’s also something to be said for job security when it comes to closers, and Papelbon has one of the longest leashes in the game. Still, this looks like a prime Sell High candidate to me. In 2009 Papelbon outperformed his skills rather significantly with a 1.85 ERA compared to a 3.98 xFIP. Quite similarly, his 5.14 xFIP so far in 2010 paints a much different picture than does his ERA. In spite of the skills erosion, Papelbon’s market value as a top-level closer remains firmly intact. Make use of this market perception and move Papelbon for other needs.

I’m also down on Chone Figgins going forward. Figgins was a fantasy beast in 2009, posting 42 steals and 114 runs in the process of finishing 33rd on the ESPN Player Rater. Thus far in 2010, however, Figgins has only helped with 9 SB. Aside from that, he’s hitting .193 with poor counting stats. Fantasy owners should have expected a decline in runs for Figgins with the move from Angel Stadium to Safeco Field along with the corresponding lineups. However, most of the reduction in his value can be attributed to the free fall in his AVG. While Figgins will certainly not hover near the Mendoza line all season long, I do think he’ll be an AVG killer in 2010. After all, last year he was relatively lucky to post a .356 BABIP with a .312 xBABIP. Overall then, Figgins just isn’t in a great environment for fantasy success. I’d look to move him now to an owner in need of SB.

While I’m concerned about Figgins going forward, I’m not worried about Lance Berkman. Recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery, Berkman missed the first couple weeks of the season, and he’s off to a relatively slow start with a .236 AVG and 4 HR in 26 games played. At this stage in his career, there’s certainly some health risk here. When healthy, though, this is one player over whom I never fret. One of the most underappreciated hitters in the game this decade, Berkman has always displayed good power and excellent plate discipline. His AVG is down in the early going, naturally due to a relatively low .279 BABIP. Make a speculative offer to the Berkman owner in your league based on his slow start.

Along those same lines, Scott Baker should only see a spike in value going forward. The subject of one of the preseason Market Reports, Baker has been less than stellar so far in 2010 with a 4.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The skills, however, continue to be very good with 7.8 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9, a reflection of his excellent command as usual. Accordingly, his 3.65 xFIP indicates there’s some ERA correction to be expected in the short-term. In short, given his mediocre surface stats and the fact that he continues to be undervalued in the fantasy marketplace, try to acquire Baker on the cheap. There’s still fantasy ace upside here.