These are the batters this season who have significantly surpassed their draft day investment so far. Higher up means more production thus far. Will these batters have as good a second half as they’ve been in the first half this season? Let’s take a look at two metrics.

BABIP…

HR/FB %…

Not all batters have the same BABIP, but usually batters can be expected to be around .300, give or take about .02. The higher the BABIP, the more luck. The lower the BABIP, the less luck.

Not all batters have the same HR/FB %, but usually batters can be expected to be around 10%. The higher the HR/FB%, the more luck. The lower the HR/FB%, the less luck. Especially compared to career norms.

The data predicts Alex Rios, Vlad Guerrero, Chris B. Young, Magglio Ordonez, James Loney, Josh Willingham, Aubrey Huff, and Marlon Byrd to be about as strong in the second half. Expect some regression from the others.

(Click on the images for a larger view.)