Digging Deeper evaluates position battles, eligibility changes, and other obscure news for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues. All published statistics are through end of play on Sunday, July 25.

By Ron Henry

Its pretty cut and dried at this point of the season.  You’re either in contention for the crown or your fantasy year is done.  If you’re not sure which camp you belong in at this point, there’s a poker saying: make sure you can spot the sucker at your table.

In keeper formats, the lines are a little more blurry, but it may already be getting too late to make those blockbuster keeper trades.  As each day passes by, the probability that any given player can contribute dwindles, so if you’re looking to sell big names for futures commodities, the day is today…or yesterday.

All of our players on the rise this week have missed some playing time for one reason or another this year. But each of these players should be able to contribute in fantasy leagues now and be great pickups for those still in contention.  Conversely, nearly all of our players on decline (excepting Justin Smoak) are likely to see or are already seeing their playing time cut and are unlikely to contribute as much value as they have given thus far this year.

Each player odometer gauges what we believe to be the right ownership percentage.  Here’s the key:

• All Mixed Leagues (100)
• 12-team Mixed Leagues (80)
• 16-team Mixed Leagues (60)
• All AL- or NL-only Leagues (50)
• 8-team AL- or NL-only Leagues (40)
• 10-team AL- or NL-only Leagues (20)
• 12-team AL-or NL-only Leagues (10)

NL Players on the Rise

Aramis Ramirez, 3B, CHC

2010 Season: 38 R, 15 HR, 47 RBI, 0 SB, .227 AVG

ESPN Player Rater Ranking (Last 7): 3 (10.21)

Its been a tale of two seasons for Ramirez, but since returning from his thumb injury, he’s batted .333 with a homerun every 10 at-bats.  Perhaps most impressive is that he has only 13 strikeouts over the same 99 at-bat span.  That 13% rate is nearly half of what he was posting before the injury and finds Ramirez much closer to his career 15.5% K-rate.  He’s back and has every motivation to produce.

Chris Johnson, 3B, HOU

2010 Season: 14 R, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 1 SB, .315 AVG

ESPN Player Rater Ranking (Last 7): 7 (8.87)

Johnson was called up by the Astros without a huge prospect pedigree, but he’s done nothing but hit since arriving.  At some point, NL-owners will have to take notice.  He actually posted a batting average of .288 or higher at AA and higher over the last three years, so his current line is not completely out of line with past performance.  Frankly, he’s been good enough that the Astros should be confident giving him the everyday job over Pedro Feliz going forward, and some NL-owners might be well off doing the same.

AL Players on the Rise

Luke Scott, OF, BAL

2010 Season: 41 R, 16 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB, .296 AVG

ESPN Player Rater Ranking (Last 7): 2 (11.51)

Scott is on another hot streak, right after coming off the DL, knocking 5 homeruns in his last 8 games.  Amidst injury, many haven’t noticed that Scott has posted a breakout year with a near career high .280 isolated power average to go with his .296 batting average.  His high BABIP (.330) and HR/FB (19.8%) points to a little bit of luck, but nothing that should forecast Scott really bombing out the rest of this season.

Jack Cust, OF, OAK

2010 Season: 30 R, 8 HR, 29 RBI, 1 SB, .300 AVG

ESPN Player Rater Ranking (Last 7): 15 (8.18)

For the past few years, Cust has been the poster boy for the three true outcomes player (HR/BB/K).  Where has that guy gone?  While a 31.9% strikeout rate is nothing to write home about, it is 7 points below his career average, which plays well when you are still walking and posting a .200+ isolated power rate.  He’s actually not hitting as many of his flyballs for homeruns right now so the power still has room for improvement…this could be a great time to buy.

NL Players Losing Value

Brad Hawpe, OF, COL

2010 Season: 18 R, 5 HR, 33 RBI, 1 SB, .256 AVG

ESPN Player Rater (Last 7): -4.88

With a bevy of young stud outfielders (Carols Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs), the Rockies have started to use Hawpe some at first base, but it looks like the writing is on the wall.  Hawpe’s name is already being floated in trade rumors and he could soon find himself outside the friendly confines of Coors Field.  Either way, it is starting to look as if his days providing the Rockies meaningful everyday at-bats are numbered.

Omar Infante, 2B/SS/3B/OF, ATL

2010 Season: 28 R, 2 HR, 26 RBI, 3 SB, .327 AVG

ESPN Player Rater (Last 7): -4.13

Much to the pleasure of Atlanta fans, the Braves have finally gotten pretty healthy with players like Chipper Jones, Jason Heyward, and Troy Glaus making everyday contributions.  With the addition of Alex Gonzalez, there is limited playing time to go around, meaning Infante will be watching from the bench more often.  Over the past week, he has only registered 6 official at-bats, which is death to a fantasy player that provides most of his value from a decent batting average.

AL Players Losing Value

Justin Smoak, 1B, SEA

2010 Season: 33 R, 10 HR, 38 RBI, 1 SB, .203 AVG

ESPN Player Rater (Last 7): -4.90

The honeymoon period is over for Smoak with the Mariners.  While he was able to go into Anaheim and blast 2 homeruns in a 4-game series, he has done absolutely nothing at home, hitting .083 in 36 at-bats at Safeco Field.  The fact remains that there is almost no lineup protection in Seattle, and Smoak is making the move from arguably the best-hitting AL stadium to the worst.  While his future may still be bright, his value for 2010 is severely hampered at this point.

Austin Kearns, OF, CLE

2010 Season: 40 R, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 4 SB, .266 AVG

ESPN Player Rater (Last 7): -3.58

As a longtime veteran with mediocre stats, the last thing you want to happen is a nagging injury to take away your playing time, but that’s precisely what has happened with Kearns’ balky knee.  The injury coincided with Shin Soo Choo’s return from the DL and has given the Indians the chance to start Michael Brantley on a regular basis while sharing outfield at-bats between Trevor Crowe and Jayson Nix.  The longer the injury lingers, the more you have to wonder if the last place Indians won’t be ready to go with a full youth movement going forward, leaving Kearns out in the cold. Brantley’s demotion today could give Kearns a short reprieve, but not much.

NL Eligibility Watch

• Omar Infante, 2B/SS/3B/OF, ATL: 10 games played at OF
• Miguel Cairo, 2B/3B, CIN: 9 games played at 1B
• Xavier Nady, OF, CHC: 9 games played at 1B
• Christian Guzman, 2B/SS, WAS: 8 games played at OF
• Delwyn Young, 2B/OF, PIT: 8 games played at 3B
• Tony Abreu, 2B/SS, ARI: 8 games played at 3B
• Jonathan Herrera, 2B, COL: 6 games played at SS, 3 games played at 3B
• Willie Harris, OF, WAS: 5 games played at 3B
• Yadier Molina, C, STL: 4 games played at 1B
• Mike Fontenot, 2B/3B, CHC: 4 games played at SS
• Andy LaRoche, 3B, PIT: 4 games played at 2B
• Jamey Carroll, 2B/3B/SS, LAD: 4 games played at OF
• Wilson Valdez, 2B/SS, PHI: 4 games played at 3B
• Melvin Mora, 1B/2B/3B, COL: 4 games played at OF
• Jim Edmonds, OF, MIL: 3 games played at 1B
• Brad Hawpe, OF, COL: 2 games played at 1B
• Alex Cora, 2B/SS, NYM: 2 games played at 1B
• Ryan Roberts, 2B, ARI: 2 games played at OF
• Casey Blake, 3B, LAD: 1 game played at 1B
• Will Venable, OF, SD: 1 game played at 1B
• Eric Hinske, 1B/OF, ATL: 1 game played at 3B
• Jeff Baker, 2B/3B, CHC: 1 game played at OF
• Chris Iannetta, C, COL: 1 game played at 3B
• Ryan Doumit, C, PIT: 3 games played at 1B (DL)
• Geoff Blum, 1B/SS/3B, HOU: 2 games played at 2B (DL)
• Kyle Blanks, OF, SD: 4 games played at 1B (DL)
• Eric Young Jr., 2B, COL: 5 games played at OF (DL)

AL Eligibility Watch

• Jake Fox, C/3B/OF, BAL: 10 games played at C, 5 games played at 1B
• Luke Scott, OF, BAL: 9 games played at 1B
• Jason Donald, SS, CLE: 9 games played at 2B
• Brandon Wood, 3B, LAA: 9 games played at SS
• Adam Rosales, 2B/3B/SS, OAK: 6 games played at 1B, 5 games played at OF
• Mike Lowell, 3B, BOS: 6 games played at 1B
• Omar Vizquel, SS/3B, CHW: 6 games played at 2B
• Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, TB: 5 games played at 1B
• Sean Rodriguez, 2B/OF, TB: 5 games played at SS
• Bill Hall, 2B/3B/OF, BOS: 5 games played at SS
• Joaquin Arias, 2B, TEX: 5 games played at 1B, 2 games played at SS
• Willie Bloomquist, SS/OF, KC: 3 games played at 1B, 4 games played at 2B, 4 games played at 3B
• Brent Lillibridge, 2B, CHW: 4 games played at SS, 2 games played at OF
• Kevin Frandsen, 2B/3B, LAA: 4 games played at 1B, 1 game played at OF
• David Ortiz, DH, BOS: 4 games played at 1B
• Adam Lind, OF, TOR: 3 games played at 1B
• Scott Sizemore, 2B, DET: 3 games played at 3B
• Brendan Harris, SS/3B, DET: 3 games played at 1B, 1 game played at 2B
• Ramiro Pena, SS/3B, NYY: 3 games played at 2B, 2 games played at OF
• Danny Worth, 2B/SS, DET: 2 games played at 3B
• Reid Brignac, 2B/SS, TB: 2 games played at OF
• Alex Gordon, 3B, KC: 1 game played at 1B, 2 games played at OF
• Hank Blalock, 1B, TB: 2 games played at 3B, 2 games played at OF
• Jayson Nix, 2B/3B, CLE: 2 games played at SS, 2 games played at OF
• Jose Bautista, 3B/OF, TOR: 1 game played at 1B
• Michael Cuddyer, 1B/3B/OF, MIN: 1 game played at 2B
• Jorge Posada, C, NYY: 1 game played at 1B
• Alberto Callaspo, 2B/3B, LAA: 1 game played at OF
• Willy Aybar, 1B/2B, TB: 1 game played at 3B
• Ryan Raburn, 2B/OF, DET: 1 game played at 1B, 1 game played at 3B
• Francisco Cervelli, C, NYY: 1 game played at 3B
• Conor Jackson, OF, OAK: 3 games played at 1B (DL)