The off-season is a time when fantasy owners relax a bit, letting real-life MLB general managers behave as if they were participating in a roto league. The “Hot Stove” off-season is typically packed with interesting player movements via trades, signings, and even the Rule 5 draft. This off-season was no exception. A bitter economy has made teams incredibly cautious on the free agent market and there are still a handful of superstars waiting to learn where they will be sending their children to school in 2009. But I think it’s time for a ranking anyhow. Below is my list of the top 5 transactions this off-season, selected by their fantasy relevance and given in descending order. I’m sure that some people will argue for the inclusion of the signing of CC Sabathia or Francisco Rodriguez or the Yankees acquisition of Nick Swisher and perhaps I forgot something. Feel free to comment.
5. The Indians sign Kerry Wood
Significance: There were shakeups in many bullpens this off-season, but the reason this one gets my nod is the establishment of Carlos Marmol as the Chicago Cubs closer. For the past two seasons, Marmol has been one of the best — and maybe the best — middle reliever in the game. A league leader in strikeouts-per-nine, Marmol has a good shot at being the most valuable relief pitcher in fantasy baseball in 2009, and the only reason he isn’t going higher in drafts is that fantasy owners are still adjusting themselves to that notion. Additionally, this signing cements Wood’s return to fantasy relevance and harms the value of Jensen Lewis and Rafael Perez, who will be regulated to set-up. The signing may also marginally change the Indians handling of top prospect Adam Miller, an oft-injured talent whose future in the rotation or in the bullpen is up in the air.
4. The Yankees sign Mark Teixeira and let go of Bobby Abreu.
Significance: I cheated a bit on this one, because this was literally two transactions. The signing of Teixeira by the Yankees raises his profile and presumably might contribute to his context stats (runs and RBIs). As a result, Teixeira has frog-hopped into the first round of many drafts. The signing also pushes Nick Swisher into the outfield or the bench. We still haven’t determined how Yanks skipper Joe Girardi will handle having four spots (at DH and in the outfield) for Swisher, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Xavier Nady, Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner. Reportedly, the Yankees are exploring trading Nady or Swisher. Teixeira’s presence also re-solidifies the Yankees as an offensive force, making both their starters and their hitters more valuable by consort. Finally, the Yankees let go of Abreu, whose stock as a fantasy player may plummet as a result. He could very well be a decent sleeper buy.
3. The Braves acquire Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for Tyler Flowers, Jonathan Gilmore, Brent Lillibridge, and Santos Rodriguez.
Significance: I believe this may be the most underrated transaction of the off-season. It’s well established that pitchers who move from the American League to the National League produce better, but few realize how much better. I highly recommend this article published late last year in The Hardball Times. Vazquez has always been a guy with solid peripherals that promised much more. Now that he’s moved from one of the league’s most home-run friendly ballparks to one that leans towards favoring pitchers, his new projections have been bordering on jaw-dropping. The typical one sees him striking out somewhere between 200-225 batters in 2009 with a 3.68 ERA and a 1.2 WHIP. This trade also holds ramifications for Tyler Flowers, one of the best-hitting catching prospects in the game who may now find himself with playing opportunity now that he’s no longer blocked by Brian McCann.
2. The Cincinnati Reds trade Ryan Freel, Brandon Waring and Justin Turner to the Baltimore Orioles in exchange for Ramon Hernandez and cash considerations.
Significance: Speaking of catchers, they are typically overshadowed assets in fantasy leagues but maybe not for long. The significance of this deal has nothing to do with the actual players moving, although it can be said that as one of the game’s best slugging catchers, Ramon Hernandez, is a nice sleeper moving into a NL hitter’s ballpark. No, the significance of this trade has to do with the rubber-stamp on Orioles prospect Matt Weiters getting a major league job very early in 2009. Weiters is already getting drafted as high as the 10th round as a result and many people expect he’ll be this year’s Evan Longoria. Judging by his numbers in the minors, I can’t dispute that assessment.
1. The Oakland Athletics trade Huston Street, Greg Smith and Carlos Gonzalez to the Colorado Rockies in exchange for Matt Holliday.
Significance: Holliday’s move from the friendliest hitter’s ballpark to one of the least friendliest has crushed a lot of his value. Fantasy owners see the .357 AVG at home and the .280 AVG on the road and move a guy whose stats compared to Albert Pujols much of last season from the middle of the first round to the late second round. There has been a bit of backlash against all the doom-and-gloom that surrounds Holliday’s new value, but few believe his stats won’t take any hit. On the other hand, keep in mind that Holliday is in a contract year and the A’s could always trade him if they fall out of competition. As for the other players in the deal, Carlos Gonzalez immediately becomes a player to watch. A top-ranked prospect a year ago, Gonzalez should have a job secured in his new hitter’s paradise. The Rockies haven’t handed the job to Huston Street just yet, but Brian Fuentes is gone and Manny Corpas struggled much of last season. Greg Smith loses whatever marginal sleeper value he had, but his departure from Oakland potentially opens a rotation slot at some point for Oakland’s extremely hyped pitching prospects, including Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson.