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Linking For Thinking

Basics, Projections, Prospects, Rankings

House Maintenence:

Last week, we finished our look at how CHONE projections judge the fantasy value of batters. For those who have followed the series from the start, we recommend taking another look. We’ve reconstructed the charts to make them easier-to-read and interactive. Bar graphs show the translated fantasy value of batters on a 10-point scale, by descending value and by draft position. Stack graphs show the relative value of batters by draft grade.

Hopefully, pitching rankings will follow soon.

Other Links Of Note In The Fantasy Baseball Universe:

PECOTA Eye-Poppers:

Late last week, Baseball Prospectus released their weighted means spreadsheet for subscribers. Some players jump out:

  • Matt Wieters ranks #2 in upside score, behind only Hanley Ramirez and just ahead of Albert Pujols, Jose Reyes, and David Wright.
  • David Price is not loved quite yet by the PECOTA system. What’s more startling — a 77% probability of collapse or a 1% shot at breakout? PECOTA judges Price’s upside to be only slightly above that of Indians prospect Scott Lewis
  • Old crushes die hard. The only 2B with a better VORP score than Kelly Johnson is Chase Utley.
  • Speaking of Value Over Replacement Player, exactly what does PECOTA see in the 31-year-old shortstop of the Washington Nationals? Cristian Guzman ranks #11 in overall VORP (between Lance Berkman and Manny Ramirez) and #28 in upside (right behind Miguel Cabrera). A true sleeper or has PECOTA lost its digits?

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3 Comments

3 Comments

  1. drgravitee  •  Feb 3, 2009 @7:51 am

    FB Junk: Where do you see Pablo Sandoval fitting into the Catcher rankings? My heart says he gets a least a grade of “B,” but that could be wishful thinking. – TKSink

  2. admin  •  Feb 3, 2009 @7:57 am

    I didn’t include Sandoval because I believed at the time that in most leagues he wouldn’t qualify. I now realize that in fact, many leagues now have 5- or 10-game minimums.
    Went back and checked the CHONE projections. Sandoval would rank #6 as a catcher, behind Soto and ahead of Napoli.
    I’m not too high on Napoli myself. I’d rather Sandoval.
    But I might edge Sandoval below Doumit. I guess that puts him around or maybe slightly above the veteran duo of Posada and Molina.

  3. drgravitee  •  Feb 3, 2009 @8:12 am

    You’re right, Sandoval will qualify as catcher in some leagues, but not in others. I think he just squeaked in for Yahoo leagues (he had 11 starts and needed 10), for what that’s worth. Six, huh? That’s pretty high. Nice. I think my love for Sandoval and his stealthy fantasy value is growing.

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    Fantasy Ball Junkie is a blog for advanced fantasy baseball enthusiasts who want to get an edge on competition. The site focuses on strategy, player evaluation, transactional analysis, bargaining theory, and all the skills integral to having a successful season. I can be reached with tips, requests, or abuse at editor@fantasyballjunkie.com

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