Contact
Subscribe
Feb 3, 2009 
We’re going to try to take questions by e-mail on a weekly basis. If you have questions, please send them to editor@fantasyballjunkie.com.
Today’s question comes from reader C.G.
“I am in is a 15 team, 6 category (OBP & QS added to standard 5×5), keeper league. 7 keepers, 2 rookie keepers. You can only keep a player 1 year after drafting year. Rookies you can keep 2 years. I have an offer where I give Price (rookie, so 2009 + 2010 season) and Scherzer (non rookie) for a 3rd round pick (I need early picks…lost some last year). Would I be selling short by doing this deal, or is it taking advantage of two over-hyped young arms.? In a 15-team keeper league, Price would probably go around the 7th-8th round, Scherzer around the 10th.”
C.G. provides good context for an answer, but his analysis is not 100% complete quite yet.
The main bit of missing info is whom he’d keep as his rookie keeper in the absence of David Price and who he’d keep instead of Max Scherzer. When it comes to trades that entail shuffling keeper lists, one of the essential ingredients of good analysis is figuring out whether the upgrades are worth the downgrades. C.G. will be giving up Price and Scherzer, but he’ll also be opening up two keeper slots for ??
That said, if C.G is trading the values of essentially a 7th round pick and a 10th round pick in return for a 3rd round pick, he seems to be getting net positive value. Especially if he’s able to use those two new open slots on other players, who may be inferior to Price and Scherzer, but would mitigate the loss of their value. Trading “up,” by packaging two or more commodities for one, is usually a good idea. This consolidates value at the top. It’s much easier to replace value at the bottom, especially in leagues that allow transactional flexibility.
As for the hype on Price and Scherzer, they probably deserve the buzz. Both are going to be excellent pitchers in the majors. But it’s wise to not get too attached to upside when considering keeper deals. Especially on the pitching end. The biggest difference at the moment between pitchers like Price and Scherzer and those like Thomas Hanson and Neftali Feliz is not skill, but rather opportunity. That edge will diminish as the season progresses. By 2010, the order of valuation on these pitchers may look quite different. Just ask Phil Hughes.
5 Comments 
). Miller should be in the CLE relief squad, and if he comes through healthy this year he could be a stud starter in 2010. Big IF. Big upside. The only reason he is not still in the top 10 prospects is injury history. He could wash out. He could be Price-lite.