Is there a way to translate draft value into auction value? For example, how many auction dollars would a first round 3B like Alex Rodriguez command compared to a fifth round 3B like Kevin Youkilis?

This question comes in from a reader. It’s a very interesting one, and a query that defies simple explanation.  Unfortunately, there is no simple correlation algorithm to use to translate draft value into auction value, or vice-versa. But there are some guide-posts to use.

One of the biggest differences between an auction league and a draft league is that fantasy owners in auction leagues are given more discretion on how to spend. This may seem obvious, but realize that draft picks are expenditures. In draft leagues, team owners are mandated to an even spread on spending — every team gets a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, a 3rd round pick, etc. In auction leagues, team owners are free to, in essence, determine their own spread—buying, for instance, two 1st round players, no 2nd or 3rd round players, a 4th round player, etc.

The biggest factors that typically influence auction value spreads are first, the overall amount of dollars chasing players and second, the number and composition of the players being rostered.

The first factor can be called the “supply” side. It’s beholden on the number of team owners who are competing in a given league and any salary cap they are given. So for example, in a 12-team league with a $260 cap, that means that the overall money pool given to players is 260 x 12, or $3,120.

The second factor can be called the “demand” side. It’s beholden on the number of roster spots that team owners have to fill as well as the composition of players (e.g. 1 or 2 catchers? middle infielders? how many pitchers vs. batters?) they must acquire at auction. Each team owner will further influence demand by determining how much of his or her budget to apportion to batters vs. pitchers.

Services like BaseballHQ that project auction amounts start out with fixed criteria (a 12-team, $260 league, where teams spend 66% on batting and 33% on pitching), then determine the worth of a given stat (say 20 cents per home run), and add it all up. This works fine as basic guidance, but given the wide variance in the supply/demand pools in many leagues, their projected auction dollars typically look nothing like the real thing.

It’s often impossible to find a direct correlation between draft value and auction value because of the differing supply/demand pools and the huge amount of discretion that fantasy owners have in allocating their budget, but often the best place to turn for guidance on what a player might go for is the prior year’s auction, which will show how much money 1st round players like A-Rod commanded compared to, say, the fifth best 3B available. Keep in mind that there is typically a bit of inflation at the top of the player pool and any adjustments to the number of owners or the composition of rosters will likely influence the spread.

In a later post, I’ll try to justify why a player like A-Rod might go for three or four times the amount of Kevin Youkilis in auctions even though he’s not actually three or four times as valuable.