By Brian Mills

In my previous posts, I addressed the topic of analyzing trades in  H2H league. I took a closer look at these trades by running simulations of weekly player totals in an attempt to ferret out how acquiring talent increases the probability of adding wins in a scoring period. I took a look at HRs and SBs.

Time now to follow up with a look at Saves.

Now that we’re nearing the trade deadline, owners are scrambling for trades that may push them over the top and into the playoffs.  One of the easier trades to get done (at least in my experience) is moving a closer to or from your team.  This is especially true in keeper leagues, where owners who “dump” likely don’t see most closers as being keeper candidates.  But what will adding Joakim Soria or Jonathan Broxton really do to your bottom line of wins going into the playoffs?  Let’s find out.

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July 29, 2010:

• It looks like Roy Oswalt is heading to Philly, pending his approval of the trade. This should be a plus for his value. He’ll be headed to a more hitter-friendly ballpark, but Oswalt’s GB/FB rate is healthy enough he should survive in Citizen’s Bank. Meanwhile, he’ll be getting a lot more run support.
• No word on exactly what the Astros are getting in return, but rumors circulate on J.A. Happ and prospects. Happ came into this season somewhat overrated, the beneficiary of tremendous luck that aided a 2.93 ERA in his rookie season. His upside is limited, but a move out of Philly might aid his value in the long-run. Just look at Brett Myers. Going forward, Happ will be a spot start this season and a back-end fantasy pitcher in future seasons.
• Domonic Brown had an impressive debut after being called up to replace Shane Victorino. He went 2-for-3 with a pair of runs and a pair of RBIs. We’re always a little skeptical of prospects in their first seasons in the bigs, especially ones who have been rushed up, but there’s good reason for optimism that Brown will be more like Jason Heyward than Mike Stanton. Namely, his plate discipline is fairly good (although not as good as Heyward’s) and has been improving steadily. We’ll peg the over/under at 8 HRs, 3 SBs, and a .274 average.
• No sooner than Victorino said “ouch,” was he earmarked for the injury list to make room for Brown. Pretty shoddy treatment for a guy who is nearly on a 30/30 pace this season. But we find it unlikely that Brown is sent down again, except if he struggles mightily. In a couple weeks time, Victorino will be back. This marks the start of the clock on Raul Ibanez‘ time as a starter in Philly. If you own Ibanez, stay ahead of the curve and start hunting for alternatives.
• In more trade news, Scott Podsednik was shipped off to Los Angeles. Why can’t teams plan ahead? The Phillies got rid of Cliff Lee and then had to backtrack for Roy Oswalt. Similarly, the Dodgers got rid of Juan Pierre and now are scrambling for Scotty P. He’ll get some playing time now, but when Manny returns, this may kill his value and make him almost droppable.

July 28, 2010:

• Logan Morrison, pre-season top 20 prospect - #14 among top prospects with an ETA of 2010 -made his MLB debut last night, going 1-4 with a strikeout. Morrison owned AAA pitching this year, with a good batting average, solid power, plenty of walks and a lean strikeout total. He was immediately thrust into the #2 spot in the lineup between Hanley Ramirez and Gaby Sanchez, a good place to be. With Chris Coughlan out 6-8 weeks from a shaving cream pie-related injury, expect him to receive the lion’s share of playing time in LF going forward  If you’re in a keeper league, Morrison should have been snatched up a while ago; if you’re not, Morrison could be a helpful 3rd-5th outfielder or corner infield option, depending on league size.

• Danny Valencia, please tell us how you managed to hit .737 over your past four games? You haven’t even managed a .750 OPS over nearly 500 PA as a 24-25 year old in AAA. Once more, you can’t even control the AAA strike zone, with 22 BB to 71 K. Yet you’ve mysteriously managed to attain a much better 8 BB to 11 K ratio in your brief MLB career, albeit with no power (0.111 ISO). If I didn’t know better, I’d think you were toying with us.

• Stephen Strasburg has been diagnosed with shoulder inflammation after being scratched from last night’s start. Just what fantasy players and baseball fans in general wanted to hear. Hopefully the Nationals continue to be very careful with their prize pitcher.

• Jose Bautista’s HR parade just continues with 2 more HR last night. Let’s talk HR for a minute with HitTracker. No Doubt-ers? Bautista leads MLB. Just enoughs? Bautista is tied for the AL lead. Bat speed? Bautista has 6 of the top 50 HR in 2010 in terms of speed off-the-bat. Just for fun, here’s the leaderboard for # of HR in the top 50 of speed off-the-bat:

1. Jose Bautista 6
2. Mark Reynolds 3
3. Nelson Cruz 2
4. Ike Davis 2
5. Jonny Gomes 2
6. Travis Hafner 2
7. Josh Hamilton 2
8. 31 others with 1

• Opportunities for young NL East players: Josh Thole appears to have a clear path to a full time catching role, at least for the time being, with an injury to Rod Barajas. Meanwhile, could Shane Victorino’s oblique injury, and not a Jayson Werth trade, open the door to playing time for mega prospect Dominic Brown? Stay tuned.

Digging Deeper evaluates position battles, eligibility changes, and other obscure news for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues. All published statistics are through end of play on Sunday, July 25.

By Ron Henry

Its pretty cut and dried at this point of the season.  You’re either in contention for the crown or your fantasy year is done.  If you’re not sure which camp you belong in at this point, there’s a poker saying: make sure you can spot the sucker at your table.

In keeper formats, the lines are a little more blurry, but it may already be getting too late to make those blockbuster keeper trades.  As each day passes by, the probability that any given player can contribute dwindles, so if you’re looking to sell big names for futures commodities, the day is today…or yesterday.

All of our players on the rise this week have missed some playing time for one reason or another this year. But each of these players should be able to contribute in fantasy leagues now and be great pickups for those still in contention.  Conversely, nearly all of our players on decline (excepting Justin Smoak) are likely to see or are already seeing their playing time cut and are unlikely to contribute as much value as they have given thus far this year.

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July 27, 2010

• After a Brennan Boesch walk, Ryan Raburn grounded into a double play to end the second inning last night.  Little did anyone know, it would be the last time a Tiger reached base as Matt Garza pitched to the minimum 27 batters, posting the fifth no-hitter of the 2010 season.  He threw 120 pitches total, with 101 fastballs and was a far cry from his last outing, a 7-run implosion vs. the Orioles.
• Dan Haren left his Angels debut last night after taking a Kevin Youkilis line drive off his right (pitching) forearm.  He was able to grab his glove and walk off on his own without looking like he was in much pain. After the game, he said the “meat of the forearm” was sore but nothing to be concerned about. We’ll see.
• The Twins put on BP against Zack Grienke last night, battering him for 8 earned runs over 4 innings en route to a 19-1 shellacking.  Nearly every major Twins hitter (sorry, Jim Thome) got a piece of the action, especially Joe Mauer, who went 5/5 with a homerun and 7 RBI.  Francisco Liriano also posted his second straight scoreless outing, striking out 6 over 7 innings.
• Matt Wieters homered twice in his second game since returning from the DL, and walked in his other two plate appearances.  The beginning of a big second half for the sophomore?  Luke Scott also homered in the game to continue his hot streak (3 HR in his last 4) while Jose Bautista added to his league-leading homerun total (28) as well.
• 2010 Homerun Derby Champion David Ortiz must really like Angels Stadium.  After bashing 32 longballs total at the All-Star event, Ortiz knocked two more out in his first return to Anaheim last night.  If the Red Sox aren’t interested in that 2011 team option or contract extension, what about the Angels?

July 26, 2010

• Perhaps you heard that Dan Haren was traded to the Los Angeles Angels for Joe Saunders and a few ok prospects. The deal could benefit Haren owners in the short-term. Haren has a 4.6 ERA on the season and a 3.38 xFIP. Quite a difference. Haren’s problem this season has been serving up HRs. His 1.47 HR/9 rate is currently 12th worst among pitchers with at least 100 IP. Moving from HR-happy Chase Field to Angel Stadium seems to outweigh having to face a DH on a regular basis. At least for this season. Heading into 2011, he may no longer be a top-10 SP.

• How will Haren’s trade effect the potential for a Roy Oswalt trade? On one hand, the market for an ace-caliber SP just got a little more scarce. On the other hand, Houston has reportedly asked for a lot in an Oswalt trade and other teams might note that the Angels gave up very little to acquire Haren. Then, there’s the whole “I want my cake and the ability to eat it too.” Roy Oswalt is demanding a trade, yet only to certain teams and only if they pick up a $16 million option year in his contract. Unless something changes, it’s hard to see an Oswalt deal working out.

• One starting pitcher who gets a drip of trade hype here and there is Kansas City’s Zach Greinke. Imagine what the lowly Royals could get for Greinke and Joakim Soria? Don’t be shocked if Greinke is indeed moved.

• A day after covering Jason Kendall’s two SB game, we now have to talk about Scott Podsednik’s 2 HR game. Let’s take a time travel trip back to 2004, a season where Pods put up 12 HR and 70 SBs. Ah, those were the days. OK, back to reality. Pods may never put up another multi-HR game in his career, but he’s remained fantasy relevant this season with a .300 average and nearly a 50-SB pace.

• Players expected to return from injury this week include Victor Martinez, Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Morneau, and Brett Anderson. Thus, there could be some interesting players being dropped in fantasy leagues to make room for these returning stars.

July 15, 2010:

• The Tigers are really hurting with injuries these days. The latest is that Magglio Ordonez is likely to miss most of the regular season with a fractured ankle and that Carlos Guillen is out with an injured calf. The Tigers are a competitive team, leaving open the possibility this shifts their trading priorities. In the meantime, this clears the way for more playing time to those like Ryan Raburn and Don Kelly.
• Cubs SS Starlin Castro was a popular name at the start of the season, a quick rising prospect at one of the toughest positions to fill in fantasy baseball. However, he trudged along most of this season without being particularly bad, but without being particularly good either. He may be a bit forgotten, but he’s been hot lately, hitting nearly .500 in the last dozen games. He’s added an odd steal and HR here or there, but he’s more the Asdrubal Cabrera type.
• Royals catcher Jason Kendall is having an underrated season. Yesterday, he added two steals to his season-total of nine. He’s also hitting above .300 and contributing some runs, hitting in the second slot of the lineup. Back to those steals…He’s definitely not a burner, as he’s been caught seven times, but he does have eight career seasons of double-digit steals, albeit none since 2006. A number of his swipes this year have also come on the back-end of a Scott Podsednik double-steal.
• If you’re in a keeper league, now is the time to trade Madison Bumgarner. He’s been extremely impressive since call-up, notching his fifth consecutive very good start last night versus the Diamondbacks. He’s got pedigree and a decent numbers this year. However, his mediocre strikeout rate, lack of high velocity, and a lack of games played at the majors still point to a player who may struggle to be more than a back-end option in fantasy leagues and whose perceived future value is probably higher than reality.
• Oakland closer Andrew Bailey is dealing with back spasms. This could open opportunity for saves for Mike Wuertz, who hasn’t shown a great ERA this year (4.71) but still has the best stuff in the A’s pen and has been much better of late.

Who’s red hot? Who’s ice blue cold? Who are the biggest-owned and smallest-owned players being added and dropped in fantasy leagues over the last few days?

Key:

• Size of box corresponds to size of player’s ownership
• Color of box responds to how quickly players are being added or dropped (red: blue scale)
• Boxes are grouped by approximate change in ownership
• Click for larger view

July 24, 2010:

• Brian Roberts finally returned after an extended absence from abdominal and back injuries. He’s been away so long under uncertain circumstances that many of his owners likely made alternative arrangements or just plain gave up on him. He didn’t do much in his first game back, and we’ll have to see if the injury takes anything away from his game, especially his speed, but Roberts has always been a consistent producer.

• Speaking of players back, Alex Gordon also returned after an extended absence in the minor leagues. If the Albert Callaspo trade opened up a roster spot for him, the David DeJesus out-for-the-year injury solidifies his playing time going forward. Gordon has people excited again after posting a 1.018 OPS in the minors  but only time will tell if he’s “figured it out” or got a few more hype-and-bust cycles in him.

• In the realm of meaningless stats, nothing tops hitting for a “cycle.” It’s funny that when a player hits for one, he gets more press than had he hit 3 HRs in a single game. Nevertheless, we’ll note Kelly Johnson’s single, double, triple, and HR last night only to note that he is heating up again with a .379 average, 3 HRs, and 3 SB this month. Where will he be playing in August?

• Believe it or not, had things turned out differently for the Dodgers last night, a guy by the name of Kenley Jansen may have been in line to pick up the save for Los Angeles. Jonathan Broxton is nursing an illness. Hong-Chih Kuo doesn’t pitch consecutive days. And so Torre hinted he would throw Jansen, just called up from the minors, to do the job. Who is he? A converted catcher who has nasty stuff in the mid-90s MPH and struck out an astounding 78 batters in 45 minor league innings this year.

• Dan Haren is definitely going to the Cardinals. No, scratch that. He’s certainly going to the Phillies. Hold on. We have it on good authority he’s headed to the Yankees. Them or the Dodgers. You can take it to the bank!

Saturday Special:

Five players who are most up on the player rater escalator these past two weeks: Geovany Soto, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Ryan Howard, Buster Posey

Five players who are most down on the player rater escalator these past two weeks: Carlos Silva, Mike Pelfrey, Brian Matusz, David Price, David Wright

Five Things for Friday:

• Owners of Yovanni Gallardo should be relieved after he looked solid last night striking out 5 Pirates en route to a Win.  It looked like his oblique wasn’t bothering him too much, and he should be a go for the upcoming fantasy crunch time.  If you’re also a Josh Beckett owner, this week is a good one, as Beckett also returns from the DL tonight to pitch against the Mariners.  While the match-up is about as good as it gets, you might want to wait and see what Beckett has got before putting him out there for your fantasy team.  He was healthy, but not particularly sharp in his rehab outings.

• After last night, Prince Fielder is back on pace for 40 HR this season.  He has hit a HR in 4 of the last 6 games.  Unfortunately, the majority of his HR have been solo shots.  Looks like someone is stealing his RBI chances away, and his .263 average still doesn’t put him near the 1^st Round territory he was taken preseason.  But he’s definitely heating up and now may be the time to buy.

• Speaking of stealing Prince’s RBI chances, Rickie Weeks has absolutely been on fire lately.  He smacked another HR last night, giving him a .277-19-62 line on the year.  He has batted .364-4-9 since the All-Star break and shows no signs of slowing down.  Weeks looks like he has been one of the top draft day investments thus far, especially with the incredibly weak Middle Infield positions this season.  It looks like he’s finally healthy and putting all that potential to good use.

• Mike Napoli has certainly hit his stride as well with 4 HR and a .417 average since the break.  If the Angels pick up a first baseman, this could cut into Napoli’s playing time, so let’s hope the Rangers continue to run away with the division.  But even with a new 1B, even Mike Scoscia has to admit that Napoli’s home run binge more than makes up for his defense.  Right?

• Good news on the Troy Tulowitzki front: he had his first rehab game last night.  Unfortunately, he went hit-less.  Tulo has stated that he feels good, and he could be back earlier than we had all expected.  You just never know with wrist injuries, but even a limping Tulowitzki would be better than the majority of fill-in options out there.  With his potential, having Tulowitzki give you the leg up could send you for a run at 1^st Place in the second half of the season.  Too bad for the Rockies, Carlos Gonzalez seems to be an on-and-off injury worry in addition to Tulowitzki’s absence.

Bonus Trade News: Alberto Callaspo was sent to the Angels.  While it shouldn’t have too much effect, it might mean he scores a few more runs than he had been on the Royals.  The Royals got Sean O’Sullivan and Will Smith.  Both of those guys can be ignored at this point, especially if they’re pitching for the Royals.  The biggest loss here seems to be owners of Brandon Wood…assuming he had anything to offer this season in the first place.