
Jul 29, 2010
By Brian Mills
In my previous posts, I addressed the topic of analyzing trades in H2H league. I took a closer look at these trades by running simulations of weekly player totals in an attempt to ferret out how acquiring talent increases the probability of adding wins in a scoring period. I took a look at HRs and SBs.
Time now to follow up with a look at Saves.
Now that we’re nearing the trade deadline, owners are scrambling for trades that may push them over the top and into the playoffs. One of the easier trades to get done (at least in my experience) is moving a closer to or from your team. This is especially true in keeper leagues, where owners who “dump” likely don’t see most closers as being keeper candidates. But what will adding Joakim Soria or Jonathan Broxton really do to your bottom line of wins going into the playoffs? Let’s find out.
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Jul 27, 2010
Digging Deeper evaluates position battles, eligibility changes, and other obscure news for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues. All published statistics are through end of play on Sunday, July 25.
By Ron Henry
Its pretty cut and dried at this point of the season. You’re either in contention for the crown or your fantasy year is done. If you’re not sure which camp you belong in at this point, there’s a poker saying: make sure you can spot the sucker at your table.
In keeper formats, the lines are a little more blurry, but it may already be getting too late to make those blockbuster keeper trades. As each day passes by, the probability that any given player can contribute dwindles, so if you’re looking to sell big names for futures commodities, the day is today…or yesterday.
All of our players on the rise this week have missed some playing time for one reason or another this year. But each of these players should be able to contribute in fantasy leagues now and be great pickups for those still in contention. Conversely, nearly all of our players on decline (excepting Justin Smoak) are likely to see or are already seeing their playing time cut and are unlikely to contribute as much value as they have given thus far this year.
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Jul 24, 2010
Who’s red hot? Who’s ice blue cold? Who are the biggest-owned and smallest-owned players being added and dropped in fantasy leagues over the last few days?

Key:
- Size of box corresponds to size of player’s ownership
- Color of box responds to how quickly players are being added or dropped (red: blue scale)
- Boxes are grouped by approximate change in ownership
- Click for larger view

Jul 24, 2010
July 24, 2010:
- Brian Roberts finally returned after an extended absence from abdominal and back injuries. He’s been away so long under uncertain circumstances that many of his owners likely made alternative arrangements or just plain gave up on him. He didn’t do much in his first game back, and we’ll have to see if the injury takes anything away from his game, especially his speed, but Roberts has always been a consistent producer.
- Speaking of players back, Alex Gordon also returned after an extended absence in the minor leagues. If the Albert Callaspo trade opened up a roster spot for him, the David DeJesus out-for-the-year injury solidifies his playing time going forward. Gordon has people excited again after posting a 1.018 OPS in the minors but only time will tell if he’s “figured it out” or got a few more hype-and-bust cycles in him.
- In the realm of meaningless stats, nothing tops hitting for a “cycle.” It’s funny that when a player hits for one, he gets more press than had he hit 3 HRs in a single game. Nevertheless, we’ll note Kelly Johnson’s single, double, triple, and HR last night only to note that he is heating up again with a .379 average, 3 HRs, and 3 SB this month. Where will he be playing in August?
- Believe it or not, had things turned out differently for the Dodgers last night, a guy by the name of Kenley Jansen may have been in line to pick up the save for Los Angeles. Jonathan Broxton is nursing an illness. Hong-Chih Kuo doesn’t pitch consecutive days. And so Torre hinted he would throw Jansen, just called up from the minors, to do the job. Who is he? A converted catcher who has nasty stuff in the mid-90s MPH and struck out an astounding 78 batters in 45 minor league innings this year.
- Dan Haren is definitely going to the Cardinals. No, scratch that. He’s certainly going to the Phillies. Hold on. We have it on good authority he’s headed to the Yankees. Them or the Dodgers. You can take it to the bank!
Saturday Special:
Five players who are most up on the player rater escalator these past two weeks: Geovany Soto, Carl Pavano, Brett Myers, Ryan Howard, Buster Posey
Five players who are most down on the player rater escalator these past two weeks: Carlos Silva, Mike Pelfrey, Brian Matusz, David Price, David Wright

Jul 23, 2010
Five Things for Friday:
- Owners of Yovanni Gallardo should be relieved after he looked solid last night striking out 5 Pirates en route to a Win. It looked like his oblique wasn’t bothering him too much, and he should be a go for the upcoming fantasy crunch time. If you’re also a Josh Beckett owner, this week is a good one, as Beckett also returns from the DL tonight to pitch against the Mariners. While the match-up is about as good as it gets, you might want to wait and see what Beckett has got before putting him out there for your fantasy team. He was healthy, but not particularly sharp in his rehab outings.
- After last night, Prince Fielder is back on pace for 40 HR this season. He has hit a HR in 4 of the last 6 games. Unfortunately, the majority of his HR have been solo shots. Looks like someone is stealing his RBI chances away, and his .263 average still doesn’t put him near the 1st Round territory he was taken preseason. But he’s definitely heating up and now may be the time to buy.
- Speaking of stealing Prince’s RBI chances, Rickie Weeks has absolutely been on fire lately. He smacked another HR last night, giving him a .277-19-62 line on the year. He has batted .364-4-9 since the All-Star break and shows no signs of slowing down. Weeks looks like he has been one of the top draft day investments thus far, especially with the incredibly weak Middle Infield positions this season. It looks like he’s finally healthy and putting all that potential to good use.
- Mike Napoli has certainly hit his stride as well with 4 HR and a .417 average since the break. If the Angels pick up a first baseman, this could cut into Napoli’s playing time, so let’s hope the Rangers continue to run away with the division. But even with a new 1B, even Mike Scoscia has to admit that Napoli’s home run binge more than makes up for his defense. Right?
- Good news on the Troy Tulowitzki front: he had his first rehab game last night. Unfortunately, he went hit-less. Tulo has stated that he feels good, and he could be back earlier than we had all expected. You just never know with wrist injuries, but even a limping Tulowitzki would be better than the majority of fill-in options out there. With his potential, having Tulowitzki give you the leg up could send you for a run at 1st Place in the second half of the season. Too bad for the Rockies, Carlos Gonzalez seems to be an on-and-off injury worry in addition to Tulowitzki’s absence.
Bonus Trade News: Alberto Callaspo was sent to the Angels. While it shouldn’t have too much effect, it might mean he scores a few more runs than he had been on the Royals. The Royals got Sean O’Sullivan and Will Smith. Both of those guys can be ignored at this point, especially if they’re pitching for the Royals. The biggest loss here seems to be owners of Brandon Wood…assuming he had anything to offer this season in the first place.