The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

Like the outfield, starting pitching provides another opportunity for great value. As advanced metrics have increased in popularity, it’s become a tad more challenging to acquire pitchers whose surface statistics haven’t lived up to their true skills. Even so, the fantasy community still misvalues starting pitching more so than any other position. In effect, there are always some quality arms that fall through the cracks. Just as we did with the outfield, let’s see in which rounds the top starting pitchers are being selected in 12-team leagues:

• Round 1: Tim Lincecum
• Round 2: —
• Round 3: Zack Greinke, Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and Roy Halladay
• Round 4: Dan Haren, Johan Santana, and Justin Verlander
• Round 5: Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, and Jon Lester
• Round 6: Javier Vazquez and Chris Carpenter
• Round 7: Josh Johnson, Tommy Hanson, and Jake Peavy
• Round 8: Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, and Yovani Gallardo
• Round 9: Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ricky Nolasco
• Round 10: John Lackey and Chad Billingsley

I’ll say right now that few of these pitchers will end up on my teams this year. I’d much prefer to build a loaded offense and then manage my pitching staff during the season rather than have to make up offense after Draft Day. In November we took a look at a few starting pitching sleepers who still don’t get their due respect. I’m still fully on board with the selections of Scott Baker, Wandy Rodriguez, and Brett Anderson as underappreciated arms, but who else looks misvalued going into the 2010 season?

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Digging Deeper evaluates the depth of individual positions for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues.

By Ron Henry

We previously measured the pulse of 2010 third basemen in a Market Report. Using Mock Draft Central ADP data, here were the resulting tiers:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Mark Reynolds
3. Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, and Pablo Sandoval
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Michael Young, and Gordon Beckham*
5. Chipper Jones, Ian Stewart, and Miguel Tejada**

* – Likely to become 2B-eligible early in season

** – Starts season at SS.  Likely to become 3B-eligible early in season

I have bolded the players that are available in AL-only leagues.  Right now, Rodriguez and Longoria are going 1-2 at MDC in AL-only play and I have little reason to be concerned about either one.

I’m slightly worried about the logjam Boston seems to be compiling at corner positions, but that might do more to keep Youkilis healthy and productive than to stunt his counting stats.

Figgins is in an interesting position moving to Seattle; I’d expect to see his steals and runs drop slightly with a corresponding bump in RBI batting behind Ichiro.

Young looks to be due for some regression in batting average but if he gets back to his usual 155-game pace, his extra counting stats should make up for that.

Miguel Tejada is making the move back to Baltimore but  is mostly trading on name value at this point; I’d expect his average to dip back towards his career .289 number.  Note he likely won’t start the year as 3B-eligible in most leagues.

Who are some options in deeper leagues?

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Your Guidebook tells you Aaron Harang is worth $5. Your small league won't draft him. How do you adjust valuations?

How figuring out a league’s replacement players adjusts values on everyone

By Ron Henry

Last week, we covered the idea of using a dynamic inflation rate to improve our auction drafting skills and even provided a free fantasy baseball draft tracker.  This week we are going to delve a little deeper into player valuation by using the idea of wins above replacement (WAR), a concept conceived by renowned baseball statistician Bill James to determine the true value of individual players regardless of position.

In the real game of Major League Baseball, a replacement level player is defined as a cheap veteran or easily available AAA player that will provide a general baseline of statistics.  WAR is used to determine how much value any player provides over this baseline.  For the purposes of fantasy baseball, a replacement level player is defined slightly differently: the best major league player that is commonly available on your waiver wire or free agent list.

I emphasize your league because different roster allowances in different leagues means player valuations vary from one league to the next.  If an auction sheet has a player listed at a value of $5 but won’t be drafted because the league is too small, his value is really closer to $0, not $5.  In essence, in such a league, the first $5 of value in every player is actually zero-value.  Accordingly, we must adjust the value of all the players of higher value in the pool, while all the players of less value are essentially worth nothing. The implications?

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Elvis Andrus is to Player B as Player C is to Player D. The answer.

A few days ago, when taking a look at controversial batters in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts, we noted that sometimes a player’s draft position can sometimes be pinned on a similar player’s draft position.

At the time, we were talking about Elvis Andrus, a shortstop expected to put up great speed, lackluster power, and a decent average. Projections by Bill James: 6 HR, 77 R, 49 RBI, 41 SB, and a .277 AVG.

Not very far off from the projections on Player B, or Alcides Escobar. Projections by Bill James: 5 HR, 75 R, 48 RBI, 42 SB, and a .288 AVG.

Both are young players. Andrus has shown what he can do already in a full season. Escobar hasn’t, of course. But the two have been compared by many pundits, and it’s very hard to justify taking Andrus that much above where Escobar is going.

To complete the analogy…is there a hyped prospect (Player D) comparable to a hyped sophomore (Player C), at least in projections?

Here’s Bill James’ projections on Andrew McCutchen: 12 HR, 74 R, 54 RBI, 22 SB, and a .281 AVG.

And Player D? Desmond Jennings: 9 HR, 76 R, 51 RBI, 39 SB, and a .281 AVG.

Let’s not take this as a recommendation to go overboard on Jennings or as a license to sink McCutchen’s fantasy stock. As we learned by Matt Wieters last year, projections are especially fickle on young players. Still, it’s interesting to think about.

Congratulations to Dan and Andy for correctly guessing the analogy!

LF vs. CF vs. RF

One thing we’ve never understood about most fantasy baseball leagues is why they allow competitors to field players at generic outfield positions rather than in a delineated alignment — leftfielders, centerfielders, and rightfielders. In our eyes, positional eligibility is important as one of the only ways that fantasy enthusiasts take defensive value into consideration. Otherwise, why not just allow fantasy teams to field nine generic batters?

Perhaps we’re in the minority on this issue, but there are, in fact, more progressive leagues that make teams field LF, CF, and RF. Anyone competing in such a league has an extra burden as few fantasy pundits will address talent scarcity at the different outfield positions.

Well, that’s why we’re here.

We’ve taken the three outfield positions and totaled the number of Runs Created for the leading ten producers over the last seven years. Take a look at this motion chart we created and hit the “play” button to see how numbers have shifted from 2003 to 2009:

A breakdown:

• One might expect LF (green) to be the most dominant position from an offensive standpoint. That was certainly the case earlier this decade, but the edge has eroded. Production has gone up and down, but overall, the trend has been for declining production at left field. Still, there’s a lot of great options at the position including Ryan Braun, Matt Holliday, Carl Crawford, Jason Bay, Manny Ramirez, Adam Lind, etc.
• As the most demanding defensive position in the outfield, CF (blue) has consistently fielded the weakest run producers. However, up until last year, offense at the position had been growing. In 2009, centerfielders took a big step backwards, perhaps in large measure to injuries to Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, and Carlos Beltran. A guy like Matt Kemp holds a lot of value in leagues that discriminate outfielders.
• RF (yellow) has tracked well over the years, recently overtaking LF as the position fielding the highest-quality batters. Frankly, we find this enormously surprising. The best options at the position include breakouts including Justin Upton, Andre Ethier, Jayson Werth, Shin-Soo Choo, and Ben Zobrist as well as some grizzled veterans including Bobby Abreu, Ichiro Suzuki, and Adam Dunn. A deep list of performers but all have a bit of risk heading into 2010.

Previously: The Fantasy Baseball Infield Arm Wrestle

Digging Deeper evaluates the depth of individual positions for NL- and AL-only fantasy leagues.

By Ron Henry

We previously measured the pulse of 2010 third basemen in a Market Report. Using ADP data, here were the resulting tiers:

1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Evan Longoria, David Wright, and Mark Reynolds
3. Kevin Youkilis, Ryan Zimmerman, and Pablo Sandoval
4. Aramis Ramirez, Chone Figgins, Michael Young, and Gordon Beckham
5. Chipper Jones and Ian Stewart*

(*2B-eligible)

I have bolded the players who are available in NL-only leagues and as you can see, there are five strong options at the top of the NL-list. These five are bunched fairly closely, and it isn’t very wise to place bets on who emerges as the top NL 3B for 2010.

All of them bring sufficient power to the table. Many may question Wright’s HR outage last year; count me among the believers that the problem was mostly in Wright’s head and not at Citi. I think he’ll bounce back to a HR total in the mid-20s. Wright and Reynolds will also contribute some steals. The only problem with Ramirez is staying healthy; if he can do that, I think he’ll have no problem being a .300-30-100 guy.

Stewart did not have the breakout year that many were expecting this past year, but he did show a lot in the power department in limited time. He looks to be taking the Dan Uggla path to stardom in slugging for 25-30 homers with an average well below .250. He strikes out way too much for my tastes, but he does have 2B-eligibility, and with some growth in plate discipline, the 24-years-old has upside.

What players are available in deeper leagues?

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Time for another head-stumper. For those late to the party, check out our first analogy quiz along with the answer.

We’re going to make this one a little tougher. Here we go…

Elvis Andrus is to Player B as Player C is to Player D. Who are B, C, and D?

Pretty tough, eh? OK, here’s a small hint. The blue line represents projections by Bill James. The red line represents the average player in a 12-team league.

Still stumped? Another hint: Here’s a clue on the identity of Player B:
And after the jump, a clue about the identity of Player C:

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Do great players involved in blockbuster trades experience short-term declines in effectiveness after being traded? After investigating hundreds of player trades made in MLB over the last two decades, we conclude that, yes, this is generally the case.

What does history tell us about what to expect from blockbuster deals this off-season?

By Dan Gardner

Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Cliff Lee to the Mariners. Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. These players were involved in blockbuster trades that will impact their professional organizations for years to come. But will these moves have a significant effect on their fantasy standing? Many pundits scrupulously evaluate how league and/or park changes will impact expected production. I’m going to take a different analytical approach, by taking a historical look at what happened to players involved in past blockbuster trades.

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Six batters who are unbelievably hard to peg. Sleepers or busts?

Average draft position data tells us how fantasy baseball competitors are valuing players heading into the 2010 season. (Player X is going in Round Y in the average draft.)

Every day, as people participate in more mock drafts and more real drafts, a near-consensus starts to form. (Player X is going in Round Y in most drafts.)

Not only do fantasy competitors repeat the choices of a million other folks, but by referring to ADP cheat sheets, these competitors engage in a reinforcing feedback loop. (I know that Player X is going in Round Y, and I know that you know it too, so if I want Player X, I better take him in Round Y.)

Nevertheless, some players remain stubbornly hard to peg in terms of draft expectation. Last year, the high-volatile guys were Pablo Sandoval, Nelson Cruz, Chris Davis, Alexei Ramirez, and James Loney — and with the exception of Loney, all turned into pretty good sleepers and busts for 2009 fantasy baseball.

Who are the very volatile guys right now? We’ve filtered batters under the age of 30 for the highest volatility and we get the following ranking of six controversial batters in 2010 fantasy baseball drafts.

Let’s run down these players:

• James Loney repeats from last year as one of the most controversial draftees in fantasy baseball. The reason seems obvious — disagreement on whether he’ll improve his power numbers. If Loney cracks 20-25 HRs, he’ll be a tremendous value. After all, he’s a great contact hitter who can be counted upon for a nice average and good run production. However, if Loney repeats his drab power from yesteryear (just 13 HRs), he won’t offer much value over Lyle Overbay, who only gets drafted in very deep leagues.
• Yunel Escobar has been playing a little yo-yo with the hearts of fantasy baseball enthusiasts. In his rookie 2007 season, he posted a .326 average and showed the potential for some future power. The following year was disappointing: a .288 average with just 10 HRs. Last year, he increased the total to 14 with a .299 AVG. Heading into this season, shortstop is a thin position, and his draft stock probably depends on a lot of draft context.
• Chris Coghlan is controversial probably because people are trying to figure out whether last year’s rookie campaign was real. He was no doubt one of last year’s most valuable pickups, posting a .321 average and teasing double digits in both HRs and steals. His value was made more apparent last season as a 2B, a position he will no longer be eligible to be played at in most leagues. Anyone who believes Coghlan is a potential batting champion or suspects that Dan Uggla might be traded probably has reason to reach for him in drafts. Anybody who looks deeper at Coghlan and notes a lucky hit rate in ‘09 and overall mediocrity chooses to wait and wait and wait…
• Miguel Montero shares some similarities with Yunel Escobar, we think. Catcher is a thin position, and drafting one becomes dependent on the dynamics of a specific draft. Last year, Montero had a breakout year, but doubts remain about his defensive prowess to stay in the lineup on a regular basis. His draft position comes down to the confidence factor.
• Elvis Andrus performed better as a rookie last year than many people suspected. The Rangers shortstop was an elite prospect at a young age and many hope he can continue to grow. Some players move around in drafts as fantasy competitors spot a similar talent in the midst going for much less. This will be the subject of an upcoming FBJ analogy. Stay tuned.
• Alex Rios is still only 29 years old. He may have been one of last year’s biggest fantasy heartbreaks, but he’s still projected by CHONE for nearly a 20-20 season.  Apparently, some believe they are getting Rios at an enormous discount over previous drafting heights whereas others have moved Rios into the “never again” column. Hype is a hard thing to kill, and it’s not surprising to see Rios as one of this year’s head-scratchers.

We’ve taken these six players and mapped their CHONE projections onto a spider graph. Take a look at how their production stacks up against the average player in a 12-team league:

We’ll look at pitchers later this week.

This week, we focus on Hunter, Span, Davis, Pierre, and Bay. The Market Report is a weekly analysis of player valuations in the fantasy marketplace in an effort to find undervalued commodities.

By Andrew Gephardt

The outfield is a good position to find value, and much of this just has to do with the fact that it’s a daunting task to accurately rank 60 outfielders. Take a look around most fantasy baseball sites, and you’ll see that the rankings at the infield positions don’t vary by all that much. At outfield, however, you can often find some rather significant discrepancies. For this reason, I typically make an effort to build my teams inside-out; that is, form a solid infield first and then work on the outfield later. Due to the fact that we’re working with more players than usual this week, let’s use Mock Draft Central data to simply provide the typical round that each of the top outfielders is currently being selected in a standard 12-team league:

• Round 1: Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp
• Round 2: Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Matt Holliday
• Round 3: Jason Bay, Grady Sizemore, Justin Upton, and Jayson Werth
• Round 4: Ichiro Suzuki, Adam Lind, and Nick Markakis
• Round 5: Josh Hamilton, Curtis Granderson, Adam Dunn, and BJ Upton
• Round 6: Manny Ramirez, Michael Bourn, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Lee, and Andre Ethier
• Round 7: Alfonso Soriano, Shin-Soo Choo, Shane Victorino, and Bobby Abreu
• Round 8: Carlos Beltran, Adam Jones, Andrew McCutchen, Hunter Pence, Nate McLouth, and Raul Ibanez
• Round 9: Torii Hunter and Carlos Quentin
• Round 10: Alex Rios, Johnny Damon, Jason Kubel, Michael Cuddyer, and Brad Hawpe

Based on this current ADP data, which outfielders are misvalued?

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