Napoli: Net Ability Player Optimization Lineup Index
By Dan Gardner
If you remember last week’s article, you know that I promised to demonstrate how one can figure the optimal lineup on auction day. Net Ability Player Optimization Lineup Index (NAPOLI) can provide the answer. It involves a fairly straightforward procedure – minimal thinking and a bit of organization will be involved. I’ll offer up an example lineup, a justification for the algorithm, and a methodology document if you’re not bored out of your mind.
Disclaimer: I am not a PhD
When attempting to buy the optimal, value-maximizing fantasy lineup, there are billions and billions of possible combinations to choose from. Consider a simple 10-team NL-only league that drafts C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF and 6 P – a total of 140 players will be drafted. Budget considerations notwithstanding, there are over 20 trillion possible ways to assemble your team. For larger leagues with more roster spots and “flex” positions, the number of combinations gets more ludicrous. How can one possibly sort through all these lineups?
Well, I’m not going to do that. I’m sure plenty of operations research PhD’s out there can solve this problem using some form of linear programming. I do not have those skills. What I do have is a sense of what their solutions will try to do, which is minimize the loss in efficiency from the profit-maximizing lineup. And I think I’ve come up with a straightforward method that sacrifices a little accuracy for a lot of understanding and ease of use.
In a Nutshell: Add MVPs to your Lineup
Here’s how NAPOLI works: Start with the most profitable lineup and then upgrade or downgrade as efficiently as possible to fit the budget. To identify opportunities to move closer to the budget without losing much profit, calculate the ratio of marginal Value$ added to marginal Market Price$ for each combination of players in the lineup and possible replacement candidates.
When the profit-max lineup comes in under budget, look for players with a high MV/MP ratio – as close to 1 as possible. When the profit-max lineup is over budget, look for players with a low MV/MP ratio – also as close to 1 as possible. The set of players with ratios close to 1 are MVP candidates. MVPs improve the lineup as much as possible when spending money, and damage it as little as possible when slashing spending.
Here’s a quick example. Just from eyeballing the CHONE spreadsheet used for our recent draft value chart, I calculated a good NAPOLI lineup for a standard Yahoo! league (C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, UT, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P). I used a $180 budget, which is a little over $11/player and in line with the traditional $260 for 23 players auction format.

With the exception of Beltre, Damon, Wells, Baker and Francisco, this was the profit-maximizing lineup. In order to get under-budget, I had to dump David Wright, BJ Upton, Carlos Beltran, Javier Vazquez and Carlos Marmol. I replaced them with the aforementioned 5 players, who offered similar profit at a reduced price. It’s a very pitching heavy team (over ½ the budget on arms!), but pitching seems to come cheap.
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